Ahmed's blog

🧪Switching From Glucose To Formic Acid 🧪

Sun, 02 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMT

Welcome!😊

I’m so glad you’re here!

This newsletter is my little corner of the world where I share what I learn on my journey to stop climate change.

Let’s dive in.

Recap

In my first essay, I explained why carbon capture is the best way to stop climate change.

In my second essay, I talked about why tax credits and carbon taxes/credits won’t help carbon capture scale.

This made me think we need to make products to scale carbon capture.

In my third essay, I looked at different CO₂-to-product approaches.

I analyzed the products using principles of physics and chemistry.

I found that many products won’t be cheaper than what’s on the market.

The product that had the most potential was glucose.

In my fourth essay, I checked out different ways to make glucose with existing reaction steps.

The economics of those reactions did not work.

This made me realize that I need to create a new reaction pathway to make glucose cheaper.

I will explain why I switched my product from glucose to formic acid.

Why I Switched From Glucose

In this essay, I found that glucose is the best product for scaling carbon capture.

After more research, I found that I need new reaction steps to make glucose work.

Figuring out these steps will take time.

To move faster, I decided to start with a simpler problem.

This will help me make money.

I can then hire experts.

This will speed up developing the new reaction steps.

How I Came Across Formic Acid

When looking for a new starting point, I used my theory for scaling a deeptech company.

I talk more about this in this essay.

Imagine I need 20 parts to make my final product.

Instead of figuring out how to make all 20 parts at once, I focus on one part.

I build a business around that one part.

I use the profit from that part to make the next one.

I keep doing this until I can make all 20 parts.

When I make all 20 parts, I will achieve economies of scale.

With economies of scale, I can make the final product at a price competitive to the market.

The first part/reaction step to make glucose is the production of formate.

To make money from formate, you need to turn it into formic acid.

I plan to make formic acid, capture CO₂, and use the profits to develop all the steps to make glucose.

How Do You Make Formate?

The reaction goes like this:

CO₂ + H⁺ + NADH → HCOO⁻ (formate) + NAD⁺.

You can achieve this reaction using the enzyme formate dehydrogenase.

Material Cost

To make 1 tonne of formate, we need 0.98 tonnes of CO₂ and 0.02 tonnes of H⁺.

Let’s assume that CO₂ costs $300/tonne and H⁺ costs $3,000/tonne.

These cost assumptions include both capital and operational costs.

This is the current price of CO₂ and green hydrogen.

Prices should decrease in the future, but I’m being intentionally conservative to show the viability of a formate product.

The CO₂ cost is: 0.98 tonnes * $300/tonne = $293/tonne of formate.

The H ⁺ cost is: 0.02 tonnes * $3,000/tonne = $67.11/tonne of formate.

Energy Cost

The energy needed for this reaction is 107.1 kWh per tonne of CO₂.

Assuming 10 cents per kWh (or 10 times the natural gas cost), the energy cost is: $10.71 per tonne of formate.

Capital Cost

A bioreactor costs $9.69/hour.

It takes 0.74 hours to produce 1 tonne of formate with formate dehydrogenase.

$9.69 per hour × 0.74 hours = $7.18/tonne of formate.

Total Cost

Once you put everything together, you get $371/tonne of formate.

What Is The Revenue From Formate?

The main path is turning formate into formic acid.

You can do this with the following reaction:

HCOO⁻ + H⁺ → HCOOH

To make 1 tonne of formic acid, you need: 0.98 tonnes of formate, 0.02 tonnes of H₂, 0.006 kWh of energy, 0.72 hours to make.

Formate cost: 0.98 tonnes * $371 per tonne = $362.94/tonne of formic acid.

H ⁺ cost: 0.02 tonnes * $3,000/tonne = $65.63/tonne of formic acid.

Energy cost: 0.006 kWh * $0.1/kWh = $0.0006/tonne of formic acid.

Bioreactor cost: 0.72 hours * $9.69 = $7.02/tonne of formic acid.

Total cost = $442.61/tonne of formic acid.

Market Price

Formic acid costs between $400 to $800/tonne.

Cost Adjustment

If I change to more realistic prices ($100/tonne of CO₂ and $1,500/tonne of hydrogen), my cost drops to $185 per tonne of formate.

What’s The Catch?

You might be wondering, “If this was so obvious, why has nobody done this yet?” There are 3 reasons.

Micro-Reason: A Small Reaction Issue

I might have made the formate/formic acid process sound too good, but I didn’t talk about the cost of NADH.

To make 1 tonne of formate, 14.78 tonnes of NADH are needed.

NADH regenerates during the reaction, but the more it cycles, the less effective it gets, so extra NADH has to be added.

Even with just a tiny 0.01% loss per cycle, I would need about 1.4 kg of NADH each time.

The cheapest NADH I found costs over $200 per kg, meaning an extra $280 per tonne of formate.

That makes the process go from viable to too expensive.

From my research, NADH is needed because it provides electrons to CO₂ to help it convert into formate.

Since we need the electrons, not the NADH, any source of electrons should work.

A good candidate is H₂, or hydrogen gas.

When we split hydrogen gas, we get H⁺ ions and e⁻ (electrons), which are what we need.

This can happen with the enzyme hydrogenase, which creates the following reaction:

H₂ ⇌ 2 H⁺ + 2 e⁻

There seems to be no research on using hydrogen for both hydrogen ions (H⁺) and electrons (e⁻) in formate dehydrogenase reactions.

The only source I found is a paper published last month.

I don’t see any reason why this wouldn’t work. We’ll test it.

Macro-Reason: The Formic Acid Market Is Small

In 2022, global formic acid production was 750,000 tonnes.

The market is small so it’s unlikely anyone would start a formic acid business now.

Big companies already do well in the formic acid market.

They have no reason to change.

You would only start a formic acid company to capture CO₂.

Most people who think about this would not start because the market size is small.

A small market means you won’t capture much CO₂.

The effort to start a company to make this product would not be worth it.

In my case, I want to make glucose and I need formate to make it.

The opportunity is worth it for me because formate is part of a larger market (glucose).

General Reason: Nobody Went Through My Exact Process to Arrive at Formic Acid.

I reached formic acid by following a specific reasoning process:

1. What should I work on for maximum climate impact?

I chose carbon capture, while most focused on other industries.

2. Should I prioritize capturing CO₂ or finding a use case?

I chose to find a use case. Most focused on capture.

3. Should I store CO₂ underground or convert it into a product?

I decided to make a product, while some chose underground storage.

What product should I make?

I picked glucose. Most chose other products that won’t succeed.

Most CO₂-to-product approaches fail for two reasons:

a) The product won’t be cost-competitive with natural gas due to fundamental physics and chemistry. (explained here)

b) The product has low market demand. For example, if formate is your only product, there won’t be enough demand to make a difference.

5. How Should I Produce Glucose?

The best option is plants. The method already exists and is the cheapest way to make glucose.

The problem is that plants don’t capture enough CO₂ to make a real difference.

This means a new process is needed to capture more CO₂ at the same price of glucose.

No process like that exists. Most would stop here.

I decided to develop a new enzyme process.

6. What’s the best way to start?

Most deeptech companies have an idea, raise a lot of money, and hope their solution works.

I focused on the simplest problem that would help me make progress on glucose.

The first step in my new method is producing formate.

I make money from formate by turning it into formic acid.

Then, I use that money to develop the next steps of the glucose process.

This follows my theory for scaling deeptech companies effectively.

Conclusion:

Along the way, I made different decisions compared to most people.

This led me to a result that no one else has reached.

Next Steps

I will work on getting into a lab to test this idea.

If you know any researchers who might be interested in this project, please let me know.

Until next time,
Ahmed

Different Pathways To Make Glucose

Sat, 11 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT

Recap

Carbon capture is the most important technology to address climate change.

Glucose is the best product we can make from captured carbon.

For this update, I attempted to create a new method for producing glucose using existing reaction steps.

It didn’t work.

Below is a summary of what I did and what I learned.

How Can You Make Glucose?

The only synthetic path I found to produce glucose is the formose reaction.

This reaction begins with formaldehyde (CH₂O), which is heated in a reactor.

The issue is that only 1% of the formaldehyde converts into glucose.

This result is poor, but it shows that glucose synthesis is possible.

Using this as a starting point, I explored ways to increase glucose yield using only existing reaction steps.

I started with CO₂ and H₂O as the input molecules.

I used formaldehyde as the intermediate.

I aimed for glucose as the final product.

Pathway 1

This is the initial process pathway I planned:

CO₂ → CO + O₂
H₂O → H₂ + O₂
CO + 2H₂ → CH₃OH (methanol)
CH₃OH + 1/2 O₂ → CH₂O (formaldehyde) + H₂O
CO₂ → Acetyl-CoA → Acetaldehyde
Acetaldehyde + formaldehyde → Pyruvic Acid
Pyruvate + CO₂ + ATP → OAA + ADP + Pᵉ
OAA + GTP → PEP + CO₂ + GDP
PEP → G3P (via intermediates)
G3P + DHAP → Fructose-6-Phosphate
F6P → Glucose

As I continued researching, I realized I hadn’t accounted for all the intermediate steps.

The full process likely involves 15+ steps.

Problem With Pathway 1

The reaction required:

2.97 tonnes of CO2 at $100/tonne = $296.75

12,719.55 kWh of energy at $0.01/kWh = $130.68

0.34 tonnes of hydrogen at $1,500/tonne = $504.13

The total cost came to $931.56 per tonne of glucose.

The market price for glucose is around $600/tonne.

This pathway is not economically viable.

Pathway 2

I explored another pathway:

CO₂ + NADH + H⁺ → HCOO⁻ (formate) + NAD⁺
HCOO⁻ + NADH + H⁺ → CH₂O (formaldehyde) + NAD⁺ + H₂O
2 CH₂O → C₂H₄O₂
CH₂O + C₂H₄O₂ → C₃H₆O₃
C₃H₆O₃ + ATP → G3P + ADP
G3P → DHAP
G3P + DHAP → FBP
FBP + H₂O → F6P + Pᵉ
F6P → G6P
G6P + H₂O → Glucose

The production cost was $948/tonne of glucose.

As with the previous pathway, this is not profitable.

Lessons Learned

More Reaction Steps Kill Your Economics

Hess’s law says the number of steps doesn’t affect the energy requirement for a reaction.

The energy requirement depends only on the input and output.

This is true for the minimum energy needed to make the reaction happen.

However, Hess’s law doesn’t account for efficiency losses at each step.

In a 10-step process with 90% efficiency per step, overall efficiency drops to 35%.

This means only one-third of the input becomes useful output. This is terrible.

For my process, low efficiency doubled my CO₂ costs.

It also tripled my energy costs.

This happened because the reaction had too many steps.

From this, I learned that reducing reaction steps is essential for good economics.

Avoid Hydrogen At All Costs

Hydrogen is a major constraint for these pathways.

It was the key factor that made these processes unprofitable.

I learned that I must create a reaction pathway from CO₂ and H₂O to glucose without using hydrogen.

This will improve my economics.

Next Steps

I need to develop a new selective pathway for the formose reaction.

Researchers know formaldehyde forms larger molecules, but the step-by-step process is unclear.

In a previous update, I mentioned needing to develop enzymes.

This does not make sense.

Enzymes can only be designed when you know the inputs and the desired outputs.

Since the step-by-step process from formaldehyde to glucose is unknown, I need to figure that out first.

Once I understand all the reaction steps, I can develop enzymes to create a more selective reaction.

The main challenge in producing glucose is connecting carbon atoms correctly.

I don’t know how to connect carbon atoms.

This means I need to learn about the fundamentals of organic (or carbon-based) chemistry.

Until next time,
Ahmed

🌎 Best Way To Scale CO₂ Capture 🌎

Thu, 19 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Welcome to My Essays

Hi! I’m Ahmed, a curious analyst.

I dive into topics and share what I discover through essays like this.

I hope you enjoy reading them!

An analysis of the best way to make money from carbon capture.

If you missed why I’m looking into carbon capture, check out this essay.

What Is The Best Way To Make Money From Carbon Capture?

The carbon capture industry centers around two questions:

How will you capture CO₂?
What will you do with the CO₂ once you capture it?

The first question is about the cost of capturing CO₂.

The second question is about how you will make money from it.

Your product or application decides what kind of capture system you need.

It is best to start by answering the second question.

What will you do with the CO₂ once you capture it?

There are 2 general paths you can take.

Store CO₂ Underground
Turn CO₂ into Products

In a previous essay, I explored the idea of storing CO₂ underground and found it unlikely to succeed.

To recap: the problem lies in the revenue model.

Companies aim to store CO₂ underground and expect others to pay for it.

The problem is this approach works like a charity.

People give you money and get nothing in return.

People, companies, and governments don’t like spending money without receiving value.

This means that storing CO₂ underground is not a reasonable option.

This essay will focus on option 2: turning CO₂ into products.

Assessing CO₂-to-Product Approaches

Product #1: CO₂ + H₂ to Make Natural Gas (CH₄)

To produce 1 MMBTU of natural gas, we need 57.89 kg of CO₂ and 10.61 kg of H₂.

The minimum energy for that amount of CO₂ and H₂ costs $5.76 per MMBTU.

The market price for natural gas is $2.12 per MMBtu (as of November 2024).

The new approach will be more expensive than extracting natural gas from the ground.

This option is not viable.

Product #2: CO₂ to Biomass

Biomass refers to organic material produced by biological organisms as they grow.

There are a few applications.

Energy Application

Let’s say we aim to produce biomass to replace energy from natural gas.

Natural gas costs about 0.7 cents per kWh.

Biomass has an energy content of 19 MJ/kg.

1 MJ = 0.27 kWh, so one kg contains 5.2 kWh.

To compete with natural gas, the maximum cost per kg of biomass must be 3.64 cents/kg.

If we had a production cost of 0, the profit per kg is terrible.

It is unlikely that you can scale with a profit margin so low.

Biochar Application

Biochar is made by burning biomass and turning it into a solid carbon product.

The main application is improving soil. You can learn about the benefits of biochar here.

Let’s say we want to provide biochar for corn farming.

The average corn yield in the US is 177.3 bushels per acre.

The price of corn is $4.17 per bushel as of October 2024.

This means an average farmer earns about $739 in revenue per acre.

The average fertilizer application is 180 to 280 pounds per acre, or 81 to 127 kilograms.

Fertilizer costs between $450 to $800/tonne.

If fertilizer costs $500/tonne, farmers spend $40 to $63 per acre on fertilizer.

If biochar is priced at $500/tonne, what would the fertilizer cost be?

In large-scale biochar studies, application rates ranged from 2 to 60 tons per hectare.

This is about 0.81 to 24.28 tonnes per acre.

Applying 0.81 tonnes per acre would cost $405.

This means farmers pay 8 to 10 times more than fertilizer for the same short-term yield benefits.

To sell biochar, you need a comparable price to fertilizer.

This means you need to sell biochar for $50-$75/tonne and applying the minimum application rate.

Can we produce biochar at a cheap enough price?

There are two general paths you can take to produce biochar.

Option 1: Centralized production

Let’s consider producing biochar in a centralized facility.

The desert is an ideal location for such a facility.

In the desert, solar energy is cheap, and the land is inexpensive because it has limited utility.

For example, you could set up a facility in the New Mexico desert and ship biochar to farmers in Iowa.

(Iowa is the largest corn producer in the US)

The distance from New Mexico to Iowa is about 1,100 miles.

The cost of shipping is $0.16/tonne/mile.

This means it would cost $176/tonne to ship biochar from New Mexico to Iowa.

As we established before, any price over $50-$75 is likely too expensive for farmers.

This moves us to option 2.

Option 2: Biochar production at the farm

This option involves removing extra biomass from farms. Use that biomass to create biochar.

You could put biochar machines on farm tractors.

As the tractor collects crops, it could also collect biomass.

The machine could turn the biomass into biochar as the tractor moves.

The biochar could be dropped directly into the soil.

In this scenario, the cost of biomass is zero.

The transportation cost is zero.

You only pay for the biochar machine and the energy to convert the biomass into biochar.

This is the most cost-effective way to make biochar.

The amount of CO₂ you can capture is limited by what plants already absorb.

If plants absorbed CO₂ at a high enough rate, we wouldn’t have a problem with emissions.

This approach will reduce CO₂ but cannot address the 37 billion tonnes of annual CO₂.

This is not the best approach for large scale carbon capture.

Charcoal Application

When biomass is heated to around 400 degrees, you get biochar.

If you increase the temperature to about 700 degrees, you get charcoal.

Both biochar and charcoal are solid carbon products.

The difference lies in their properties, which are influenced by the heating temperature.

The two general paths for producing charcoal are the same as those for biochar:

Produce it on-site.
Produce it at a centralized facility.

The key difference between charcoal and biochar is the selling price.

The current price of charcoal is $895/tonne.

At this price, shipping costs become less of an issue.

The global market for charcoal is about 54.9 million tonnes.

The large market and high selling price of charcoal make it a good option for scaling carbon capture.

Activated Carbon

If you want to further process biochar or charcoal, you can produce activated carbon.

The only issue is the global market for activated carbon is just 5.8 million tonnes per year.

The market is too small for significant CO₂ reduction.

You might make money, but your overall impact on emissions would be relatively small.

Product #3: CO₂ to Jet Fuel

To produce 1 tonne of dodecane (an overly simplified model for jet fuel), you need 3,100 kg of CO₂ and 438 kg of H₂.

Most CO₂ capture companies estimate their cost will be at $50/tonne at scale.

A general benchmark for hydrogen cost is $1.50/kg.

Using these costs, the production cost of jet fuel becomes $811.8 per tonne.

The market price of jet fuel is $734.55 per tonne.

CO₂-to-jet fuel is too expensive and not a viable option.

Product #4: CO₂ to C₂H₄ (Ethylene)

Ethylene is a key building block for one of the most common plastics: polyethylene.

To produce 1 tonne of ethylene, we need 3.13 tonnes of CO₂ and 1.284 tonnes of H₂O.

Assuming CO₂ costs $50/tonne and using the highest water purification cost of $14.6/tonne, the material cost is $175.73.

Assuming energy costs 1 cent per kWh, the total energy cost to produce 1 tonne of ethylene is $143.6.

The total input cost is $319/tonne of ethylene.

Ethylene sells for $735/tonne, leaving a decent margin for machines and profit.

This approach has potential.

Product #5: CO₂ to Glucose

The Plant Method

Plants use photosynthesis to convert CO₂ and H₂O into glucose.

This is how people produce glucose today.

To know if we can add more sugar crops, let’s look at the global land usage below.

Source

When we look at the land options for growing sugar crops, here’s what we find:

Agriculture – This land is needed to grow food, so we can’t use it.
Forests & Shrubs – Cutting these down would increase emissions instead of reducing them.
Glaciers – Crops can’t grow on ice.
Barren Land (Deserts) – Deserts aren’t good for farming.
Freshwater – Crops can’t grow on water.
Urban Land – Cities and towns can’t be turned into farmland.

The conclusion is there is no extra land to grow enough sugar crops.

Synthetic Chemistry Process

The formose reaction converts formaldehyde (CH₂O) into glucose (C₆H₁₂O₆).

The problem is that only 1% of the formaldehyde turns into glucose.

This is because converting formaldehyde to glucose requires many intermediate steps.

Formaldehyde and its intermediates are highly reactive.

This leads to the formation of unwanted side products.

As the molecule grows larger, the chances of unwanted side reactions increase.

There’s little you can do to fundamentally improve the formose reaction.

Bacteria Method

To produce glucose, you need bacteria cells, sunlight for energy, CO₂, and nutrients from the BG-11 medium.

BG-11 medium costs about 0.69 cents per liter.

In a lab, bacteria have a productivity of 1.5g of glucose per liter of culture medium.

At this rate, producing 1 tonne of glucose would require 666,666.7 liters of BG-11 medium.

The total cost for the medium alone would be $4,599.6/tonne of glucose.

The market price for glucose is $636/tonne.

This does not seem like a viable concept.

Can you do something to improve productivity?

There are two options for growing bacteria: indoors or outdoors.

If we grow bacteria outdoors, we cannot control the conditions.

This will result in limited yield, likely worse than 1.5g of glucose per liter of culture medium.

The volume of BG-11 medium needed and its high cost make outdoor glucose production unviable.

If we grow bacteria indoors, we can control the conditions and improve the yield.

Indoor systems requires you to pay for the energy, and photosynthesis has a 26% energy efficiency.

This means only 1 out of 4 energy units produces useful output, which is inefficient.

The minimum energy to convert CO₂ and water into glucose is 4,321 kWh per tonne of glucose.

At 1 cent per kWh, the minimum energy cost is $43.

To provide the energy, LED lights are required.

There is a trade-off between brightness and intensity.

This results in a maximum efficiency of 50%.

Adjusting for this, the energy cost doubles to $86.

With photosynthesis at 26% efficiency, the cost increases to $330 per tonne.

We still need the culture medium.

At 1.5 grams of glucose per liter of culture medium, we need 666,666.7 liters of BG-11 medium.

This adds $4,599.6 per tonne of glucose.

To break even, we need a 14x productivity improvement.

This analysis does not include the cost of facilities, employees, land, or other expenses.

The conclusion is that both indoor and outdoor paths are not promising.

Synthetic Biology Method

In the bacteria method, a cell is used.

A significant amount of energy is spent on growing and maintaining the cell.

Since we only care about glucose production, using energy to grow the cell is inefficient.

When we examine cells, we find that enzymes are the key to driving reactions.

Enzymes act as catalysts, enabling the specific chemical reactions we need.

By isolating the enzymes, we can create a cell-free enzyme system.

A cell-free system offers several advantages.

The first reason is that enzymes can catalyze reactions with 90%+ efficiency.

This means minimal resources are wasted, which is important for good economics.

The second reason is that it removes the need for a culture medium.

Since we don’t need to grow a cell, we don’t need the culture medium to provide nutrients.

This eliminates a major cost.

The minimum energy required to convert CO₂ and water into glucose is 4,321 kWh per tonne of glucose.

Assuming 90% energy efficiency, the energy required increases to 4,801 kWh.

After accounting for 50% LED light efficiency, the energy requirement becomes 9,602 kWh.

At 1 cent per kWh, the energy cost is $96.02 per tonne.

Since we removed the cost of the culture medium, this process is cost-efficient.

This leaves over $500 per tonne for machines and profit margin.

Product #6: CO₂ to Urea

Urea is one of the most common fertilizers.

It is produced by combining ammonia and CO₂.

Existing ammonia plants already have integrated CO₂ capture systems.

This makes an external CO₂ capture system unnecessary for urea production.

Product #7: CO₂ to Concrete

This method uses CO₂ in the process of producing concrete.

Concrete is composed of 10-15% cement.

For a tonne (1000 kg) of concrete, 100 to 150 kg is cement.

Cement costs about $150/tonne which translates to $15–$22.5 per tonne of concrete.

A company working on this concept is CarbonCure.

They inject 0.6 kg of CO₂ per cubic meter of concrete.

This reduces cement usage by 15 kg per cubic meter.

A cubic meter of concrete weighs 2.4 tonnes.

A 15 kg cement reduction equals 6.25 kg of cement saved per tonne of concrete.

This means you save $0.94 per tonne of concrete.

To get this saving, you need 0.25 kg of CO₂ per tonne of concrete.

To be profitable, your CO₂ cost has to be below $3,760/tonne.

Current CO₂ capture costs are $200–$300/tonne.

This means that this concept is viable.

Global concrete production is about 30 billion tonnes annually.

Injecting 0.25 kg of CO₂ per tonne of concrete could reduce up to 7.5 million tonnes of CO₂ per year globally.

This reduction is small compared to the 37 billion tonnes of CO₂ emitted annually.

This product is insufficient to address global emissions.

Conclusion

A few products show potential for success: ethylene, charcoal, and glucose.

Glucose stands out as the best path forward.

Glucose vs Ethylene

Ethylene can be turned into plastics or other chemicals.

It is versatile for hydrocarbon derivatives but lacks functional groups for making complex molecules.

Glucose has multiple hydroxyl (-OH) and carbonyl (-CHO) groups.

These functional groups enable diverse reactions: oxidation, reduction, esterification, and dehydration.

This makes glucose a better starting molecule for producing chemicals compared to ethylene.

Glucose vs Charcoal

The maximum market for charcoal is 54.9 million tonnes per year.

The global production of glucose is 180 million tonnes per year.

Glucose can be transformed into cellulose.

This adds another 180 million tonnes per year of products.

Cellulose can be used in the paper industry.

This adds another 414 million tonnes per year of products.

Glucose can be used for chemicals to replace CH₄ (natural gas).

This adds another 2.3 billion tonnes per year of products.

This means glucose could be used to produce over 3 billion tonnes of products annually.

Glucose is a clear winner here.

Next Steps

I will learn how to design enzymes that convert CO₂ and H₂O into glucose.

I will share my discoveries with you along the way.

A Few Final Words

I hope you found this essay interesting!

If you know someone who might enjoy it, feel free to share.

Until next time,
Ahmed

💸 Why Carbon Pricing Fails 💸

Sat, 14 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Welcome to My Essays

Hi! I’m Ahmed. I’m an analyst with a deep curiosity about the world.

I explore ideas. I break them down. I share what I learn in essays like this.

I hope you find them interesting.

My analysis of the carbon capture industry.

If you missed why I’m looking into carbon capture, check out this essay.

How Should You Think About The Carbon Capture Industry?

The carbon capture industry centers around two questions:

How will you capture CO₂?
What will you do with the CO₂ once you capture it?

The first question is about the cost of capturing CO₂.

The second question is about how you will make money from it.

Your product or application decides what kind of capture system you need.

It is best to start by answering the second question.

What will you do with the CO₂ once you capture it?

There are 2 general paths you can take.

Store CO₂ Underground
Turn CO₂ into Products

Option 1: Store CO₂ Underground

Storing CO₂ underground can make money from carbon credits, carbon taxes, or tax credits.

Each of these depends on the economy, policy, and public opinion.

Here are some case studies to see if carbon pricing systems can work.

Case 1: Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)

CCX was a voluntary carbon trading system.

Companies could pay money to offset their emissions.

This created a market to support emission-reduction projects.

In 2008, the financial crisis caused demand for carbon credits to collapse.

Case 2: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was a global agreement between countries.

It let rich countries fund projects in poor countries to cut emissions.

In return, they got carbon credits for meeting their own emission targets.

They could also sell these credits in carbon markets.

When the agreement ended, the market for carbon credits disappeared.

There was no longer a system to make money from trading carbon credits.

Case 3: U.S. Renewable Energy Tax Credits (1990s)

The U.S. government introduced tax credits for renewable energy in the 1990s.

These credits helped fund many renewable energy projects.

The projects were planned based on the high value of the tax credits.

Over time, the tax credits were reduced or ended.

When the credits were removed, the projects became uneconomical.

This caused many projects to be canceled or go bankrupt.

If a carbon capture company relies on selling tax credits to customers, it faces the same risk.

The company could fail if the credits are reduced or expire.

Case 4: Australian Carbon Pricing Mechanism (2011-2014)

In 2011, Australia started a carbon tax to lower emissions.

The tax made everyone pay more for the same stuff.

Many people, industries, and political groups strongly opposed it.

In 2014, the new government repealed the tax.

The Lesson

The 4 cases above show different carbon pricing methods.

Case 1 showed a voluntary market where companies pay for CO₂.

Case 2 showed a global agreement where countries pay for CO₂.

Case 3 showed a tax credit system where governments lose tax revenue.

Case 4 showed a carbon tax system where companies and people pay for CO₂.

No carbon pricing method works because someone has to pay for the emissions.

They get nothing in return for paying.

People do not like spending money and getting nothing back.

Recessions make these systems even weaker.

During a recession, companies and countries do not have the luxury of paying for CO₂. Cash is tight.

Governments can’t afford to lose tax revenue. Cash is tight.

People get angry and protest high carbon taxes because they are struggling financially. Cash is tight.

During a recession, nobody has the luxury of paying for CO₂ and getting nothing back. Cash is tight.

This means carbon capture companies will lose most, if not all, their revenue during recessions.

If a company can’t make money during a recession, it is unlikely to succeed long term.

This is why any carbon capture revenue model that relies on a carbon pricing will not succeed.

What About Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland?

These countries have used a carbon tax system for over 30 years.

They are successful, but they are likely the exception, not the rule.

These countries have no majority party in government.

Instead, they have 3 or more parties controlling government.

This means no single party can pass policies without help.

The only way to get help from other parties is to show that your policies provide a clear benefit for citizens.

Because of this, these countries rank in the top 10 least corrupt nations.

They make decisions like universal healthcare and free education.

They also created a carbon tax in the 1990s.

If any governments care about people and the earth, it is these countries.

Even if every country could become like the Scandinavian countries, 5 key countries are unlikely to get on board.

If these countries do not join, you can not make the progress needed.

These countries are the United States, China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.

Together, they represent 41.5% of the world’s population, 50% of global GDP, and 59% of global CO₂.

China and India focus on economic development.

Cheap energy is key to economic development.

Cheap energy lets you manufacture stuff cheaper than other countries.

For China and India, coal is the cheapest energy source.

A carbon tax raises the cost of energy and products.

Higher costs make businesses less profitable.

Less profit means less money to grow their economies.

Slower growth goes against their self-interest.

The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia are the top 3 crude oil producers.

A carbon tax would make their oil more expensive.

Higher costs would slow their economic growth.

Slower growth is also against their self-interest.

To think a global carbon system will stop climate change, you must believe these countries will act against their self-interest.

It is more realistic to think they will act in their own self-interest.

This is why any system that needs people to pay for CO₂ will not work on a global scale.

You need a different way to make money with carbon capture.

That’s what my next essay will be about. (Hint: It’s turning CO₂ into a product)

A Few Final Words

I hope you found this essay interesting! If you know someone who might enjoy it, feel free to share.

Until next time,
Ahmed

The Case For Carbon Capture

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Welcome to My Essays

Hi! I’m Ahmed. I’m an analyst with a deep curiosity about the world.

I explore ideas. I break them down. I share what I learn in essays like this.

I hope you find them interesting.

This essay will describe why I believe that carbon capture is the single best thing we can work on for climate.

How Should We Think About Solving Climate Change?

Climate change happens because of greenhouse gas emissions.

To solve it, we need to know where these emissions come from.

Most problems have one big cause that affects everything else.

Fixing that cause can make a big difference.

I learned emissions are divided into 27 categories.

You can see the breakdown here and below.

Energy might seem like the main problem, but it’s not.

Energy is made up of many smaller, unrelated problems.

For example, removing emissions from industrial energy is different from removing emissions from ships.

Each problem needs a different solution.

Scaling a company to fix one problem could take 10 to 20 years.

I realized one company would not be enough to make progress. There had to be a better way.

As I researched, I learned about capturing emissions.

This means pulling greenhouse gases out of the air.

With this idea, it doesn’t matter if the emissions come from transportation, chemicals, or steel.

You can have one solution to remove emissions if they all emit the same greenhouse gases.

To decide where to start, I looked at which gas causes the most emissions.

CO2 makes up 75% of emissions. Methane makes up 19.5%. Nitrous oxide makes up 5.5%.

CO2 seems like a good place to start.

If we captured all yearly emissions, would that be enough to stop climate change?

The answer is no.

Even if emissions stop, the emissions already in the air will still cause wildfires, droughts, and natural disasters.

I wanted to know what CO2 levels were like before humans started polluting.

I found data showing CO2 levels over the past 800,000 years.

Scientists measure CO2 in the air using a unit called parts per million, or ppm.

This shows how many CO2 molecules are in one million air molecules.

Before the industrial revolution, the natural CO2 levels were between 175ppm and 300ppm.

Our goal is to bring CO2 levels back below 300ppm.

As of December 8, 2024, CO2 levels are at 425.26ppm.

This means there are 125.26ppm of extra CO2 in the air.

Each ppm of CO2 equals about 7.82 billion tonnes.

If we multiply 125.26ppm by 7.82 billion tonnes, we get about 979.53 billion tonnes of extra CO2 in the air.

For comparison, the world releases about 37.79 billion tonnes of CO2 every year.

This means 96% of the CO2 problem is already in the air.

Only 4% of the problem comes from what we add each year.

Even if we reach net zero, it won’t fix climate change.

This is why CO2 capture is not a solution. It is the solution.

Future Essays

In future essays, I will study carbon capture as an industry.

I will share what companies are doing wrong.

I will also explore better ideas for capturing CO2.

A Few Final Words

I hope you found this essay interesting! If you know someone who might enjoy it, feel free to share.

Until next time,
Ahmed

🚀 How Should I Scale This Tech? 🚀

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Welcome to My Essays

Hi! I’m Ahmed. I’m an analyst with a deep curiosity about the world.

I explore ideas. I break them down. I share what I learn in essays like this.

I hope you find them interesting.

I am continuing to share what I learned about evaluating climate technologies.

The goal is to figure out the best way to stop climate change.

What’s in This Essay?

This framework answers four questions:

Should I spend time on this technology?
Will it get cheap enough?
If it’s cheap, will it scale?
If it can scale, how should I scale it?

If you missed my thoughts on the first question, check out this essay.

If you missed my thoughts on the second question, check out this essay.

If you missed my thoughts on the third question, check out this essay.

Today, I’m focusing on the fourth question.

If a technology can get cheap and can scale, how should you scale it?

This essay will answer that question.

Preface

When you make a product, there are two main types of costs: operational and capital.

Operational cost is an expense for every unit you produce. This includes things like energy, materials, and labor.

Capital cost is the one-time expense for building a factory, buying machines, or setting up equipment.

When you’re just starting out, you usually rely on suppliers for your machines and tools.

Making this equipment yourself is too expensive in the beginning.

As a result, your capital cost depends on the price suppliers charge.

This creates the project finance problem.

The Project Finance Problem

The cost of machines depends on how many you buy.

When you buy more machines, the cost per machine goes down.

This happens because suppliers give discounts for buying in bulk.

The machines do not get cheaper. You pay less because you bought more.

New companies do not have billions of dollars to buy in bulk.

Without bulk discounts, your machines cost more per unit.

This means your product will cost more.

If your product costs more than the competition, most people will not buy it.

Some startups try to solve this problem by building mega plants from day one.

A mega plant is a facility that produces enough units to reach a low unit cost.

A typical mega plant produces about 1 million tonnes per year. It costs around $500 million to build.

For a startup to build a mega plant, there are three main options:

Option 1: License the technology to large companies

Large companies move slowly. They may not act fast enough to help the climate in time.

Option 2: Raise $600M–$1B from venture capital

You need $500M for the plant and more for research and operations.

To raise this much money from day one, investors expect a track record of success.

Most climate founders are scientists or engineers without this history.

Even if you raise the money, big competitors can undercut your prices.

They can sell at a loss to force your startup into bankruptcy or acquisition.

Option 3: Get project financing from banks

Banks do not fund risky or unproven technologies.

Conclusion

All three options for funding a mega plant are not good.

You have a low chance of succeeding. You need a different approach.

How Do You Solve the Project Finance Problem?

You are not likely to get billions from venture capital or banks.

This means you need to fund most factories yourself.

If you don’t have $500 million for a mega plant, what should you do?

Don’t start with a mega plant. That is the wrong goal.

Your goal should be to make speed of construction your limiting factor, not money.

Imagine you raise money to build one factory.

This factory makes enough profit to pay for a new factory in one year.

Now you have two factories. Those two factories make enough profit to build two more factories.

This keeps going every year. After 20 years, you could have 1,048,576 factories.

You won’t build them that fast, but that’s not the point.

The point is money would stop being the problem.

The speed of construction becomes your biggest limit.

This is good because speed is something you can control.

Not having enough money is harder to fix.

This shows the key to solving the project finance problem. It’s called the payback period.

The payback period is how long it takes for one factory to fund the next one.

A short payback period leads to fast growth.

Fast growth allows you to start with a small facility and eventually build a mega plant.

How to Achieve a Short Payback Period

The payback period is calculated like this:

Payback period = Cost of factory ÷ Profit per year

For example, if a factory costs $200M and makes $100M in profit per year:

$200M ÷ $100M per year = 2-year payback period.

How to Reduce the Cost of a Factory

Make New Technology

You can design new machines that do the same job as the old ones.

If the new machines cost less, you save money.

Vertical Integration

Vertical integration means making your own equipment and materials.

You don’t need to invent anything new. You just copy what suppliers do and make it yourself.

This saves money because suppliers charge extra to make a profit.

Here’s an example. If something costs $100 to make, suppliers might add a 5% markup.

If 20 suppliers are involved, the price grows to $265.33. That’s a 2.6x increase from the original cost.

By making more of the supply chain yourself, you keep that extra money.

Your cost depends only on the energy and materials required, not on supplier markups.

This saved money can help you scale faster.

How to Increase Profit Per Year

Profit has two parts: cost and revenue. To increase profit, you can lower costs, raise revenue, or do both.

How to Decrease Cost

Find ways to use less energy or fewer materials than your competitors.

This makes your product cheaper to produce.

How to Increase Revenue

Sell your product in a different market. For example, you can make a shirt for $5.

If you sell it to regular customers, you might charge $10. But luxury buyers could pay $200 for the same shirt.

My Ideal Approach

If I wanted to build a car company, I wouldn’t make the whole car at first.

Making the whole car from the start costs too much money.

Instead, I would focus on making just one car part.

Here is my step-by-step plan:

Make a list of all the parts needed to build a car.
Study how each part is made.
Choose the part with the best payback period.
Raise money to build a small factory for that part.

At first, I would sell the part to expensive markets.

These markets pay more because they buy in small amounts.

As I grow, I would reduce the cost through vertical integration.

Lower costs would let me sell to cheaper markets.

Throughout the entire journey, I reinvest all profits into building more factories.

Once I make enough profit, I would start making other car parts.

I would repeat this process for each part.

When I can make all the car parts cheaply and in big numbers, I would start making full cars.

A Few Final Words

I hope you found this essay interesting! If you know someone who might enjoy it, feel free to share.

Until next time,
Ahmed

🚀 Will This Tech Scale? 🚀

Sat, 07 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Welcome to My Essays

Hi! I’m Ahmed. I’m an analyst with a deep curiosity about the world.

I explore ideas. I break them down. I share what I learn in essays like this.

I hope you find them interesting.

I am continuing to share what I learned about evaluating climate technologies.

The goal is to figure out the best way to stop climate change.

What’s in This Essay?

This framework answers four questions:

Should I spend time on this technology?
Will it get cheap enough?
If it’s cheap, will it scale?
If it can scale, how should I scale it?

If you missed my thoughts on the first question, check out this essay.

If you missed my thoughts on the second question, check out this essay.

Today, I’m focusing on the third question.

If a technology can get cheap, will it scale?

Below are some important questions to help you find out.

Question 1: Is there enough space in the world to scale this technology?

If a concept needs too much land to scale, it won’t work.

For example, there is a company making chemicals using sugar instead of natural gas.

This sugar comes from plants like corn, sugarcane, and sugar beets.

To decarbonize the chemicals industry, we need to compare global chemical and sugar production.

Chemical production is 2.3 billion tonnes per year, but sugar production is only 180 million tonnes per year.

If 1 tonne of sugar made 1 tonne of chemicals, we’d need 12.7 times more sugar to decarbonize everything.

This would require 12.7 times the land used for sugar today.

Note: This assumes a 1:1 sugar-to-chemicals ratio, but that’s not accurate.

Some chemicals need more sugar.

For example, making 1 tonne of ethylene (a common chemical) requires 3 tonnes of sugar.

Currently, growing all sugar uses 30.23 million hectares (302,300 km²).

To scale by 12.7 times, we’d need about 3.5 million km² of new land.

This is in addition to the original 302,300 km².

Here’s how global land is currently used:

Source

When we look at the land options for growing sugar crops, here’s what we find:

Agriculture – This land is needed to grow food, so we can’t use it.
Forests & Shrubs – Cutting these down would increase emissions instead of reducing them.
Glaciers – Crops can’t grow on ice.
Barren Land (Deserts) – Deserts aren’t good for farming.
Freshwater – Crops can’t grow on water.
Urban Land – Cities and towns can’t be turned into farmland.

The conclusion is clear: there’s no extra land to grow enough sugar crops.

We can solve this problem in two ways:

Find new ways to grow sugar on unused land, like deserts or oceans.
Engineer crops to produce 12.7 times more sugar.

Right now, the company isn’t doing either.

Unless they fix this, they won’t have a big impact on climate change.

Question 2: Is there enough input material to scale this technology?

To make any product, you need input materials.

If there isn’t enough material globally, the product cannot scale.

Take nuclear fusion as an example.

Many believe it is the future of energy and a key solution for climate change.

However, there is a major issue most fusion efforts overlook.

The problem lies in the availability of fuel.

Below is a breakdown of companies by their chosen fuel sources.

Source

Out of the 44 companies in the 2024 fusion industry report, 68% rely on deuterium-tritium (DT) reactions.

Since this is the most common method, we need to evaluate if it is feasible.

A fusion reactor needs 125 kg of tritium to match the energy output from a 1000 megawatt (MW) coal plant.

To calculate the energy output of a 1000 MW coal plant, we need two key factors.

The first factor is plant lifetime. Coal plants typically operate for 40–50 years.

For this calculation, we will assume a 50-year lifespan.

The second factor is capacity factor.

The capacity factor measures how often a plant operates at full power.

U.S. coal plants have an average capacity factor of 42.1%.

This means they operate at full power 42.1% of the time.

The total energy produced in one year is calculated using this formula:

Yearly Energy Output (MWh/year) = Power (MW) x Hours per year x Capacity Factor.

Energy Output (MWh/year) = 1000 MW x 8760 hours/year × 42.1% capacity = 3,687,960 MWh/year.

The world consumes 183,230 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year.

A single fusion reactor would produce only 0.002% of global energy.

The question is whether there is enough input material to scale fusion reactors for all the world’s energy needs.

This fusion reactor requires 125 kg of tritium and 125 kg of deuterium over its lifetime.

For a 50-year lifespan, this equals 125 kg ÷ 50 years = 2.5 kg/year of deuterium and tritium.

Deuterium is common in saltwater, but tritium is rare.

The annual global production of tritium is 20 kg/year.

If we used all 20 kg of tritium, we could only supply enough fuel to produce 0.0161% of the world’s annual energy consumption.

This shows there isn’t enough tritium to scale this type of fusion reaction.

Without enough fuel, this process cannot meet global energy needs.

This example shows why it’s important to assess material availability.

If there isn’t enough input material, the technology cannot scale.

Question 3: Does our cost goal make us profitable for this application?

For a business to scale, it must be profitable.

In most climate industries, price is the most important factor for success.

If your price is too high, your business will fail.

Profitability depends on the specific application.

A cost target that works for one use might not work for another.

Take green hydrogen as an example.

Many companies aim to produce hydrogen at $1.5 per kilogram (kg).

Fossil fuel-based hydrogen costs between $0.5 and $1.7/kg.

Selling green hydrogen at $1.7/kg could be profitable.

The problem is many hydrogen companies assume one cost target works for all applications.

They often fail to check how much revenue each use case can support.

One popular use for hydrogen is replacing natural gas in energy production.

To compare costs, we must look at each fuel’s price in kilowatt-hours (kWh), a standard energy unit.

1 kilogram of hydrogen contains 33.3 kWh.

If hydrogen costs $1.5/kg, the price per kWh is 4.5 cents/kWh ($1.5 ÷ 33.3 kWh).

1 MMBtu of natural gas contains 293 kWh.

At a cost of $2.12 per MMBtu (as of November 2024), the price per kWh is 0.7 cents/kWh ($2.12 ÷ 293 kWh).

Hydrogen at 4.5 cents/kWh cannot compete with natural gas at 0.7 cents/kWh for energy

This shows the importance of setting the right cost target for each application.

Bonus Things to Consider

Bonus Thing 1: Don’t assume something is expensive without running a cost analysis first

I once wanted to use photocatalysis to split water and make hydrogen.

I assumed there wasn’t enough freshwater, so I thought I needed to use saltwater instead.

I believed desalination was too expensive. But my mentor told me to check the math.

When I checked, I found out desalination is cheap.

The highest cost for desalination is 1 cent per gallon, or 0.26 cents per kilogram of water.

Since 9 kilograms of water make 1 kilogram of hydrogen, desalination would only add 2.4 cents per kilogram of hydrogen.

That extra 2.4 cents per kilogram is worth it.

Using freshwater makes the system simpler and avoids all the problems caused by using saltwater.

The lesson: Don’t assume something is expensive before running the math.

Run the math to avoid bad assumptions and bad designs.

Bonus Thing 2: Focus on overall efficiency instead of side metrics

I was exploring an electrochemistry concept and read a paper claiming 74% Faradaic efficiency.

I looked up the definition and found this:

“Faradaic efficiency measures how efficiently charge (electrons) is transferred in an electrochemical reaction.”

I assumed Faradaic efficiency meant overall efficiency, but I was wrong.

Overall efficiency has two parts: current efficiency and voltage efficiency.

Faradaic efficiency only measures current efficiency and ignores voltage efficiency.

If someone only talks about one part of efficiency, they might be hiding something.

You could have good Faradaic efficiency but bad voltage efficiency.

This would result in poor overall efficiency.

This kind of misrepresentation happens in other industries too.

In batteries, people focus on coulombic efficiency instead of overall efficiency.

In steam turbines, they use higher heating values (HHV) instead of lower heating values (LHV).

HHV counts energy from water vapor, even though most steam turbines can’t capture it.

This inflates efficiency by including energy the turbine can’t actually use.

The takeaway: Always check overall efficiency to avoid being misled.

A Few Final Words

I hope you found this essay interesting! If you know someone who might enjoy it, feel free to share.

Until next time,
Ahmed

💸 Will this tech be cheap? 💸

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Welcome to My Essays

Hi. I’m Ahmed. I’m an analyst with a deep curiosity about the world.

I explore ideas. I break them down. I share what I learn in essays like this.

I hope you find them interesting.

I am continuing to share what I learned about evaluating climate technologies.

The goal is to figure out the best way to stop climate change.

What’s in This Essay?

This framework answers four questions:

Should I spend time on this technology?
Will it get cheap enough?
If it’s cheap, will it scale?
If it can scale, how should I scale it?

If you missed my thoughts on the first question, check out this essay.

Today, I am focusing on the second question.

How do you know a technology can become cheap?

How can you tell if it will be cheap enough to beat the fossil fuel alternative?

The Origin Of This Essay

One of the most common beliefs in technology is that producing more makes a product cheaper.

Many people treat this idea as if it were a law of nature.

This belief leads to a dangerous conclusion.

“I can take any technology and succeed if I get enough subsidies to reach high-volume production.”

People assume that once they reach high-volume production, the technology will work. This conclusion is wrong.

The main driver of success for any technology is not innovation or production volume.

What matters most are the fundamental laws of physics and chemistry.

These laws set the absolute minimum cost for any technology.

Since these laws never change, your lowest possible cost will not change unless you change your process.

Optimizing your process or buying in bulk can help you get closer to this minimum cost.

However, they will not reduce the minimum cost. In most climate industries, price is king.

In industries like steel or cement, everyone has the exact same product. The only way to win in the market is price.

If your minimum cost for a zero-emission solution is higher than the fossil fuel alternative, you are unlikely to be successful.

This essay is about what I learned about calculating the minimum cost of any technology.

To find the minimum cost, we will use the fundamental principles of physics and chemistry.

Tool 1: Enthalpy of Formation

Enthalpy of formation helps us find the minimum energy needed to make 1 unit of a product.

The minimum energy is a key factor in determining the minimum product cost.

The steps for finding the minimum energy are listed below.

Step 1: Identify the Chemical Reaction

Say we want to make hydrogen (H₂) from water (H₂O). Here is the chemical reaction: 2H₂O→ 2H₂+O₂

Note: Your chemical equation must have an equal amount of each element on both sides.

If not, the minimum energy calculation will be incorrect.

Step 2: Find the Enthalpy of Each Molecule in the Reaction

The enthalpy of most elements and molecules is available in databases like this one.

H₂O has an enthalpy of formation of –285.8 kJ/mol.
H₂ has an enthalpy of formation of 0 kJ/mol.
O₂ has an enthalpy of formation of 0 kJ/mol.

kJ means kilojoule, which is a unit of energy. Mol refers to mole, which is a unit of mass.

We use kJ/mol to standardize energy changes per mole of substance.

This makes it easier to apply these values directly to stoichiometric calculations (Tool 3).

Step 3: Multiply the Number of Moles by the Enthalpy of Each Molecule

Recall our reaction is: 2H₂O→ 2H₂+O₂

The chemical equation above says that we need 2 moles of H₂O (water) to make 2 moles of H₂ (hydrogen) and 1 mole of O₂ (oxygen).

Enthalpy of 2H₂O: –285.8 kJ/mol × 2 moles = –571.6 kJ
Enthalpy of 2H₂: 0 kJ/mol × 2 moles = 0 kJ
Enthalpy of O₂: 0 kJ/mol × 1 mole = 0 kJ

Enthalpy = (sum of enthalpy of outputs) – (sum of enthalpy of inputs).

Enthalpy = (0 kJ of 2H₂ + 0 kJ of O₂) – (–571.6 kJ of 2H₂O) = 571.6 kJ.

The calculations above show that we need 571.6 kJ to make 2 moles of H₂ and 1 mole of O₂.

A positive kJ value means the reaction is endothermic, meaning it absorbs energy.

A negative kJ value means the reaction is exothermic, meaning it releases energy.

A reaction that absorbs energy requires you to apply energy to maintain it.

A reaction that releases energy does not require additional energy to sustain it.

The 571.6 kJ for 2 moles of hydrogen (or 285.8 kJ for 1 mole of hydrogen) and 1 mole of oxygen does not provide useful information on its own.

To make this data meaningful, we need molar mass (Tool 2) and stoichiometry (Tool 3).

Tool 2: Molar Mass

Molar mass tells us the mass of one mole of an element or molecule.

You can find the molar mass of any element or molecule by doing a quick search on Google.

1 mole of H₂O = 18.02g (or grams). 2 moles of H₂O = 36.04g.
1 mole of H₂ = 2.02g. 2 moles of H₂ = 4.04g.
1 mole of O₂ = 32g.

The mass of inputs and outputs must be the same because of the law of conservation of mass.

This law states that matter cannot be created or destroyed.

Every chemical equation assumes 100% mass conversion efficiency, also called mass yield.

In reality, the actual mass yield will be less than 100%.

Your mass does not disappear, but some of it does not get converted into the desired output.

Molar mass values alone are not very helpful.

To make molar mass and enthalpy useful, we need stoichiometry (Tool 3).

Tool 3: Stoichiometry

Stoichiometry is the process of making the enthalpy of formation and molar mass useful.

Below are the steps.

Step 1: Identify the Product You Want to Make

Recall the chemical reaction of splitting water to produce hydrogen and oxygen: 2H₂O→ 2H₂+O₂

For this example, we want to make hydrogen.

Step 2: Identify What Mass We Want for Our Product

Hydrogen companies sell hydrogen by dollars per kilogram ($/kg).

For this calculation, we will use 1 kilogram as the reference amount.

Step 3: Find How Many Moles You Need to Get the Mass You Want

Remember that the mass of 1 mole of H₂ is 2.02g. We want to turn that mass into 1 kg.

Remember that the mass of 1 mole of H₂ is 2.02 grams.

We want to convert this mass into 1 kilogram.

First, convert the target mass (1 kilogram) into grams: 1 kilogram = 1000 grams.

Next, divide 1000 grams by 2.02 grams (mass of 1 mole of H₂). 1000/2.02= 496 moles

Now we know that to produce 1 kilogram of H₂, we need 496 moles of H₂.

Adjust the chemical equation:

Original: 2H₂O→ 2H₂+O₂
Adjusted: 496H₂O→496H₂+248O₂

Note: I don’t recommend running stoichiometry calculations by hand.

With multi-step reactions, doing everything manually increases the likelihood of mistakes.

I use spreadsheets to help organize the calculations.

Once the formulas are set up, I can run my analysis faster and with fewer errors. Here is an example spreadsheet.

Putting the 3 Tools Together

To make 1 kilogram of H₂, we need 496 moles.

Remember, the energy required to produce 1 mole of H₂ is 285.83 kJ/mole.

Multiply: 496 moles × 285.83 kJ/mole = 141,772 kJ per kilogram of H₂.

Convert kJ to kWh: 141,772 kJ ÷ 3600 = 39.4 kWh per kilogram of H₂.

Assume industrial electricity costs are 6.26 cents per kWh (Texas, September 2024).

Energy cost: 39.4 kWh × $0.0626 per kWh = $2.46 per kilogram of H₂.

Compare this to fossil fuel hydrogen costs: $0.5–$1.7 per kilogram.

Clearly, hydrogen from water is more expensive.

Note: This analysis assumes no capital costs, labor, land, maintenance, or financing.

Real-world costs would make green hydrogen even less competitive.

Another Example Using the 3 Analysis Tools

Let’s analyze making natural gas (CH₄) from CO₂ and H₂.

Producing 1 MMBtu of natural gas requires 9.6 kilograms of H₂ and 77 kilograms of CO₂.

Assume renewable energy costs 1 cent per kWh.

Cost of H₂: 39.4 kWh per kilogram × $0.01 per kWh = $0.39 per kilogram.
Total cost: $0.39 per kilogram × 9.6 kilograms = $3.74 per MMBtu.

Compare this to natural gas extracted from the ground: $2.20 per MMBtu (October 2024).

This shows that the technology is unlikely to be competitive.

Similar to the previous example, this analysis assumes no capital costs, labor, land, maintenance, or financing.

I also didn’t account for the cost of CO₂.

I only considered the energy cost of hydrogen, and it’s clear that this approach will not work.

A Few Final Words

I hope you found this essay interesting! If you know someone who might enjoy it, feel free to share.

If you’re not already a subscriber and would like more essays like this in your inbox, subscribe below:

Until next time,
Ahmed

🤖 Should I Look Into This Tech? 🤖

Fri, 29 Nov 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Welcome to My Essays

Hi, I’m Ahmed. I’m an analyst with a deep curiosity about the world.

I explore ideas, break them down, and share what I learn in essays like this.

I hope you find them interesting.

I’m sharing a simple way to judge climate technologies.

Why? Because I’ve seen people waste time and money on ideas that don’t work.

This framework is my solution. It’s built on physics, manufacturing, and economics.

What’s in This Essay?

This framework answers four questions:

Should I spend time on this technology?
Will it get cheap enough?
If it’s cheap, will it scale?
If it can scale, how should I scale it?

Today, I’ll focus on the first question.

Should I Spend Time On This Technology?

Here are some of the important questions I would ask before starting.

Does the Industry Have a Big Impact on Emissions?

Why it matters: Small problems don’t make big changes. To fight climate change, we need big results.

A big industry is one that causes more than 5% of global emissions. Only nine industries meet this mark.

You can cut emissions in two ways:

Stop emissions at the source. Check this chart for emissions by sector.
Pull emissions from the air. Focus on CO₂, CH₄ (methane), or N₂O (nitrous oxide). These gases make up 100% of emissions.

Will the Technology Reduce Emissions?

Why it matters: Some ideas sound good but don’t help.

Take livestock and manure. They cause 5.8% of emissions. Some say lab-grown meat will fix this.

But most emissions come from animal waste and gases, not the meat itself. Lab-grown meat doesn’t solve the problem.

When looking at a technology, ask: Does it cut emissions at the source?

Will Customers Buy for Selfish or PR Reasons?

Why it matters: Customers stick with selfish buys. PR buys disappear when budgets shrink.

If you sell to businesses: Businesses care about three things: making money, saving money, or saving time.

If your product doesn’t do one of these, it’s probably a PR buy.

Take carbon credits. They don’t save or make money or time.

Companies buy them to improve their image. When times get tough, PR spending is the first to go.

If you sell to consumers: Selfish buys improve the buyer’s life.

Think of Tesla cars. People buy them for performance, fuel savings, or status.

PR buys, like reusable bottles or fair-trade coffee, are about signaling values.

Selfish buys last through tough times. PR buys are the first to get cut.

Is Your Product a Need or a Want?

Why it matters: Needs sell on their own. Wants need strong marketing.

A need is something the customer can’t live without. A want is optional.

For example, steel is a need in construction. Without it, builders can’t build.

Carbon credits are a want. Companies buy them to look good, not because they have to.

When budgets shrink, wants are the first to go. Needs stick around.

Tip: Focus on needs. They sell even in bad times.

Do You Have the Right Success Metric?

Why it matters: The wrong metric wastes time. The right metric aligns your goals with results.

The best metric is profit per unit. This means your revenue is higher than your costs.

How Much Revenue Can You Get Per Unit?

Most climate sectors are commodities. That means everyone sells the same thing. Price decides who wins.

If you sell steel, you need to price it at $707 per ton or less. Anything higher, and you lose.

To scale a solution, you need to dominate the market. That only happens if you meet or beat market prices.

What Should Your Cost Goal Be?

Your costs must be lower than your revenue. A common mistake is ignoring revenue potential while trying to cut costs.

Here are two mistakes I’ve seen:

The first is relying on uncertain revenue.

For example, some CO₂ capture companies aim for $50 per tonne. But they lack a clear way to sell the captured CO₂.

They depend on carbon credit markets, which are fragile and rely on goodwill.

The second mistake is setting the wrong revenue expectation based on application.

For example, green hydrogen companies aim for $1.5 per kg to match fossil fuel hydrogen at $0.5 to $1.7 per kg.

This might work for some uses, but not for industrial heat. At $1.5 per kg, hydrogen costs 4.5 cents per kWh (calculated as $1.5 ÷ 33.3 kWh per kg).

Natural gas, by comparison, costs $2.20 per MMBtu (as of October 2024). One MMBtu has 293 kWh, making it less than 1 cent per kWh.

In commodities, price is everything. Hydrogen at $1.5 per kg can’t compete for industrial heat.

Putting It All Together

Before diving into a climate technology, ask these questions:

Is it a big industry? Does it cause over 5% of emissions?
Does it cut emissions directly? Does it address the source of the problem?
Will customers buy for selfish reasons? If you target companies, does it help them increase profit?

If you target consumers, does it improve their life?
Is it a need or a want? Needs sell themselves. Wants depend on marketing.
Are your revenue and cost targets realistic? Use market prices to guide your goals.

A Few Final Words

I hope this essay was interesting! If you know someone who might like this essay, feel free to share it.

If you are not already subscriber and would like more essay like this in your inbox then subscribe below.

Until next time,
Ahmed

🤔 What Is The Goal? 🤔

Fri, 29 Nov 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Welcome to My Essays

Hi, I’m Ahmed. I’m an analyst with a deep curiosity about the world.

I explore ideas, break them down, and share what I learn in essays like this. I hope you find them interesting.

I’ve been thinking about an important question: What is the goal?

Why does it matter? Not doing anything with your life feels terrible.

A goal gives you direction for actions you should take.

If you wanted to be a pro athlete, you have an idea of what you should and should not do.

If you had no goal then you are aimlessly wandering through the world.

With this logic, I decided to figure out what the goal is.

At first, I didn’t know. If you don’t know the goal, how do you find it?

I’ll explore this question and see if I can find a good answer. Maybe it will help you too.

I started thinking: what makes a bad goal?

What if I said my goal was to become a drug addict? That doesn’t sound like a good goal. Why is that?

The outcome of that goal is harmful. It seems that a good goal should have a positive outcome.

What else makes a goal good? I remembered Man’s Search for Meaning by Viktor Frankl.

He wrote about people in concentration camps during World War II.

Some pinned their hopes on being free by Christmas or spring.

These dates came, but they were still stuck in the camp. When that happened, people lost hope.

Some even ended their lives because they had nothing left to hold onto.

Frankl didn’t tie his hope to a deadline. He dreamed of reuniting with his wife.

It didn’t matter if it took a month or ten years. He stayed hopeful because his goal was not tied to time.

This made me wonder: are deadlines bad for goals? Think about it. You set a goal and reach it by the deadline.

What happens next? You feel empty until you find another goal.

What if the key is choosing a goal that you will never achieve? That way, you always have something to work toward.

So far, it seems like the goal needs to be never ending and positive.

What about money? It benefits many areas of life and is an infinite goal. On the surface, money fits our definition.

But there are plenty of rich people who are miserable.

I remember a billionaire joking, “I have yacht money, but Jeff Bezos has super-yacht money.”

That feels like the wrong way to see life. It seems this billionaire wanted more money to compete with others.

What if that’s a problem? Maybe a good goal isn’t about external competition.

You should want the goal for its own sake, not for what others think.

Imagine you wanted to master making cardboard boxes.

You do it because you love it, not because anyone cares. It’s fulfilling on its own.

So far, a good goal seems to be:

Positive
Infinite
Pursued for its own sake

Let’s test this idea.

Example 1: Becoming an Actor

Being an actor is positive because it entertains and inspires people.

The goal is infinite because you can act for most of your life. But the third criteria is tricky.

If you pursue acting for its own sake, it’s a good goal. If you chase it for fame or recognition, it fails.

The intention behind the goal matters.

Example 2: Working at a Charity

Helping people is positive. It’s infinite because you can always help more.

If you help others because you genuinely care, you’re pursuing the goal for its own sake.

But if you do it to impress others, it’s not. Again, intention decides if the goal is good or not.

Example 3: Becoming a Professional Video Game Player

Some might argue it’s positive because it provides entertainment and builds skills. Others might disagree.

The goal isn’t infinite—you can’t compete at a high level after a certain age, like most athletes.

Whether it’s for its own sake or external validation depends on the player’s intention.

Overall, this seems like a weaker goal.

Key Insight: From looking at the examples, it seems that intention behind the critical aspect of the goal.

Conclusion

Based on the definition, there are two clear paths for a goal.

Path 1: Improving Yourself

You focus on:

Mastering a skill — for example, you choose to become a great guitarist or the best sushi chef.
Overall Self-Improvement — You work on making more money, staying fit, and learning new things.

The goal is to reach your full potential in all areas of life.

Path 2: Helping Others

You focus on being useful to others. Whether you help one person or a billion doesn’t matter.

What matters is the sense of purpose you gain from making a difference.

What to Do If You Don’t Have a Clear Goal

If you have an interest, work on improving your skills in that area.
If you don’t, focus on key areas of self-improvement like earning money, staying healthy, and gaining knowledge.
If improving yourself feels empty, shift your focus to helping others.

This is my best answer so far to What is the goal? The goal is to find work you want to engage in.

The goal is to find a positive act you can pursue for a long time, for its own sake.

Once you know the goal, the rest is straightforward. You can fill any information gaps about what to do.

From there, you can take action and start making progress.

A Few Final Words

I hope this essay was interesting! If you know someone who might like this essay, feel free to share it.

Until next time,
Ahmed

😎 A Cool Summer With A Smart Guy 😎

Sat, 09 Sep 2023 00:00:00 GMT

A Cool Summer with a Smart Guy

I spent my summer with Andrew Ponec (CEO and Co-founder of Antora Energy). I want to thank him for taking a chance on me. You gave me an awesome summer.

Andrew’s most interesting attribute is his ability to find mistakes. Whenever I made a mistake, he would see it fast. He was always right.

For example, I analyzed corn processing plants. Andrew took one look at the analysis and said, “Something’s not right here.” I checked again, and he was right. I made a mistake.

I learned 2 big lessons from Andrew:

Lesson 1: Conservation of Energy

Conservation of energy is a tool to help you know how much energy you need for a process.

I showed Andrew my algae carbon capture concept. He invalidated it in 8 minutes. He showed me the energy required for the entire reaction. Even if algae was free, the energy to turn it into a fuel would be too expensive to beat natural gas.

Lesson 2: Conservation of Mass

I found a company that takes CO2 and water to make CH4 (natural gas). I did the math (stoichiometry). It was too expensive compared to natural gas from the ground.

These two rules helped me find flaws in many climate companies. I even found problems in ones that raised 100s of millions of dollars. Investors never find these problems because they never look for them. More lessons are in the article below.

Don’t click :)

The First Principles of Analogies

At the beginning of my internship, I worked on different ways to pitch Antora. I tried many pitches. I recorded myself and watched it back. Every time I got to the technical section, I would get bored.

I locked myself in a room for 3 days to figure out the problem. After many experiments, I learned the real purpose of analogies: entertainment.

The breakthrough came when I compared the battery with how a robber steals from a bank. The analogy was solid. I laughed many times while alone in the room.

The bank robber analogy was entertaining. The other analogies were not. Why was the analogy entertaining? The analogy helped me get into storytelling mode.

What are the components of storytelling mode? The key components are rate of speech, range of volume, tonality, pitch & melody, and pausing. Varying these components brings your speech to life. These components naturally vary in every story you tell. Good analogies help you get into storytelling mode. As a result, the audience is more entertained when you pitch.

What Made “Asking For Forgiveness Is Better Than Asking For Permission” Real For Me

At the airport, I made a friend. It was time to board the plane. We were standing in a long line because our plane ticket said to go there. My friend and I met an older man who told us to go to the shortest line, even if it wasn’t our line. We did and no one checked.

This situation taught me that it is better to ask forgiveness than permission. The situation was not about bending rules. It was about what you believe you can do.

The belief the airport people would stop us made us not take the action of going into a shorter line.

We had a permission mindset. We can’t do X because of Y.

A forgiveness mindset is about doing what you want/need to do until somebody stops you.

In the permission mindset, what is blocking you is imaginary. In the forgiveness mindset, you only get blocked by real things.

I compared the situation to a previous belief I had. I used to think you needed to be PhD/Professor to start a hardware climate company.

I can’t start a climate company because I’m not a PhD. The blocker is imaginary.

I can’t start a climate company because I haven’t fixed this problem yet. This blocker is real. To get rid of this blocker, I need information not credentials.

What I Learned From One Of The World's Smartest Engineers

Wed, 06 Sep 2023 00:00:00 GMT

Hello 👋🏻

Over this summer I worked with Andrew’s Ponec, Co-founder and CEO of Antora Energy (a Bill Gates backed startup). I worked on fundraising, engineering, and operations.

I want to thank Andrew for taking a chance on me and giving me an unforgettable experience. He has a thinking capacity like I have never seen before in the climate space. They are one of the few companies that have a reasonable chance to make an impact on climate change. Antora is one of them.

What Attracted Me To Antora?

There are hundreds of companies working to solve climate change. Why did I decide to hound Andrew for a year to work at Antora?

Antora’s approach focused on techno-economics. There are 2 components to techno-economics: Technology and economics. Antora’s approach is technology agnostic and aims to be cheaper than natural gas. To my surprise, Antora is one of the few companies that have both aspects to their approach.

Why is a technology-agnostic approach important?

Technology agnostic means not favoring any one technology over another. The common path for most climate companies (I have observed) goes as follows:

“I went to uni, got interested in {insert field}, got a Ph.D., worked on this concept for the last 10 years and now I have a company.”

Imagine 50 climate companies in the same industry with the same type of path as mentioned above. There is no way that all 50 companies will have the best technology to solve the problem. Most build cool-sounding technology that does not scale. The Antora approach was intentional about not working to commercialize a specific technology. The team only cared about getting to the right answer.

Why are Economics important?

The world runs on money. If you are not cheaper than natural gas, most people will not buy from you. You can not scale a carbon-neutral/negative product without having superior economics.

How Did I Get Introduced To Antora?

About a year and a half ago, I learned solar and wind need energy storage to scale. During my research, I came across an Antora talk. The first point was the cost of natural gas to create a cost baseline for energy storage. From that point on, I knew the team was thinking about the problem the right way.

The Antora concept used basic analysis rather than relying on a breakthrough. The team started with the question “What are the main variables in an energy storage system?” The answers were materials, heat transfer, and heat-to-electricity conversion. I assume there was a deeper analysis, but this is the high-level perspective.

The materials thought process was “We need a material that can store 1,500C and is cheap.” They looked up materials and put their properties in a spreadsheet. The team compared the options and picked the best one. The approach is obvious when you look back, but most energy storage companies didn’t do that. Most companies followed the status quo (e.g. molten salt). Another set of companies chose a material without evaluating all the options.

For the heat transfer method, the team looked at the options. They found radiative heat transfer to be the best. The method required no moving parts and worked with high-temperature carbon blocks.

For the heat to electricity engine, the team did the same thing. They looked at all the options and found thermophotovoltaic (TPV) cells. The team chose TPV because it had the scaling capacity of solar. You can work at small scales, medium scales, and large scales. This characteristic was not true of steam turbines (the existing method). TPV had no moving parts, steam turbines did.

Lesson 1: Be Solution Agnostic

Before talking to anyone from Antora, I learned a solid model for solving problems. Identify what a good solution looks like (e.g. solution requirements). Look at all the options and pick the one that aligns best with your requirements.

The Antora team had an advantage over other battery companies. None of the early people were battery scientists. They could not reason by analogy because they had no existing knowledge. The lack of knowledge helped them escape preconceived notions of what was right.

Antora did not fall into the trap of cool technology. They built up their approach from first principles.

Lesson 2: Build Your Cost and Performance Targets From First Principles. Don’t Outsource Your Thinking.

Many founders say “{insert Big Name Organization} says energy storage should cost $50/kwh.” or “{insert Big Name Organization} says we need $1.5/kg of hydrogen“ or “ {insert Big Name Organization} says carbon capture should cost $50/tonne of capture CO2.”

The founders use the number as their cost target. The issue with the reports is they set a target, but the reader does not know why the target is there. Not knowing how people came to their target may lead to working towards a goal that does not matter.

Imagine working on a technology for 10 years. You achieve your cost target made by the report. You later realize your cost target was wrong because customers are not buying. You would be better off spending a few hours on basic analysis instead of wasting your life on a bad target.

The same concept applies to product specifications. You have to understand why someone chose a particular cost/performance metric. If you do not seek understanding, you may waste your time on a target that does not matter.

Lesson 3: The Basic Tools For Analysis Are The Best Ones.

When calculating the cost of anything there are 3 important tools

Conservation of Energy
Conservation of Mass
The Magic Box

Lesson 3.1 Conservation of Energy

I knew the definition, but I never understood the practical use of the tool.

Andrew introduced me to the concept. I had a hypothesis for a profitable method of capturing CO2. Within 8 minutes, he invalidated something I thought about for months. Andrew showed me the energy input my process needed. I realized the economics did not work.

For every cost calculation, I recommend you look at the energy needed. If you don’t know how to calculate the required energy, ChatGPT can help figure out what to calculate.

Lesson 3.2: Conservation of Mass

I knew you could not create matter or destroy it, but I did not understand the practical implications of the tool.

I found a company that takes CO2 and H2O (water) to make CH4 (natural gas). In theory, the concept sounds great. When I tried to figure out their cost, I used conservation of mass.

To make 1 mmbtu (unit of energy) of CH4, you need 58kg of CO2 and 5 kg of hydrogen.

The cheapest CO2 cost is $50/tonne (or $0.05/kg). 58kg * $0.05/kg = $2.9.

The cheapest hydrogen today is $1.5/kg. 5kg * $1.5/kg = $7.5.

Your final cost will be $10.4 of input per mmbtu. To compare, Henry Hub (natural gas price index) is at $2.55/mmbtu. By using conservation of mass, you realize the concept does not work.

Lesson 3.3: The Magic Box

When evaluating any company, Andrew uses what he calls The magic box. Inputs —> Magic box (on a whiteboard, he draws a box) —> Output.

Before believing any claim, you need to understand input and outputs. The magic box helps you identify any obvious gaps in a technology.

There was a company that claimed to use enzymes to capture CO2 to make cellulose. He started with his magic box. In the magic box, the only thing we know is the company uses enzymes. The first question Andrew asked was, “Where do they get their energy from?” The website and podcasts with the founders did not provide an answer. He pointed out to me enzymes are catalysts. Without the energy source, having enzymes doesn’t add much value.

As I spent more time looking into their technology, I found another problem using the magic box.

We start with CO2 and end with cellulose (many C6H12O6 molecules). They added hydrogen somehow. Where did it come from?

Another question is in their magic box, they capture CO2. Cell-free enzymes (one’s not living in bacteria or plants) can only create good yield in reactors. The founder mentioned they can do CO2 capture from the air. How do you capture CO2 from inside a reactor?

Instead of hearing a company’s claims and accepting them at face value. Doing basic analysis helps find problems/gaps in the company’s technology.

Lesson 4: Mechanics of Cost Reduction.

As you increase the volume of manufacturing, there are 2 ways cost reduction happens:

1. Higher volume cost reduction.

You buy a higher volume of inputs and manufacturers give you a better deal. The closer you are to their number 1 buyer, the better the treatment you will get. One component of better treatment is lower cost. There is no inherent cost reduction here. Manufacturers charge you more per unit when you buy small volumes.

2. Learning curve cost reduction.

The learning curve is an inherent cost reduction. The learning curve is cost reduction because of process optimizations. Improvements can be increasing efficiency, reducing material requirements, changing manufacturing processes, etc.

A common mistake is not separating cost factors based on the type of cost reduction. A learning curve model may tell you that a commodity (like Steel) costs less than the global market rate. For example, imagine the model said Steel should cost $50/tonne at scale. The global price is around $800/US ton. There is a clear mistake. These mistakes can give you a cost way below your real lowest cost.

I recommend you separate the cost reduction factors into the volume or learning curve.

For higher volume cost reductions, look up the global price index for the product. I found that ChatGPT can help you find the name of the index if you do not know it.

For learning curve cost reductions, you can apply a learning rate. Remember, the act of manufacturing more units does not guarantee process optimization. You have to find some way to reduce the cost. When making this model, ask yourself the question, how do I plan to get this cost down? You can start by breaking down the cost factors and creating hypotheses for how to reduce each factor.

To create a lower bound cost, the conservation of energy and mass should help. The energy and mass yield of each process step should help you get a more accurate final cost.

Lesson 5: People Took The Wrong Lesson From Wind And Solar

As explained in lesson 4. Increasing manufacturing reduces costs in 2 ways. You get better deals from suppliers and you improve your process.

In the case of solar, wind, and lithium-ion batteries this knowledge is enough. Investors miss an important component with technologies like electrolyzers or carbon capture. They are missing energy.

There are 2 main cost categories: Capital cost and operational cost.

Solar, wind, and batteries are capital-cost technologies. There is little to no money required to operate the devices. Electrolyzers and CO2 capture machines need energy for each unit of product.

Investors assume technologies that need energy have the same cost curve as solar. The assumption is incorrect. Increasing manufacturing volume has 0 impact on energy.

Investors miss energy because they reason by analogy (I will explain why in a future post). They saw a graph that showed lower cost after high volume. They assume every technology works like that. When you reason by analogy, you don’t learn what causes the outcome. When you don’t understand, you make investments based on an incorrect assumption.

This fundamental lack of understanding is why we had a bunch of money put into biofuels back in the 2010s. They did not understand the energy needed costs more than fossil fuels from the ground.

Highlight Moment

In my first week, Bijan taught me that hiking is glorified walking. After going on a hike with my roommates, I agree. Bijan introduced me to funnel cakes. They are good. The evil designer of funnel cakes knows that no one can finish one funnel cake alone. Bijan felt that torture.

Life is The Greatest Teacher

Tue, 03 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT

In the newsletter there are 5 different sections:

TLDR — Here you get the summary of the most important information.
Project Development — Gives context on what information is needed to deploy the algae products mentioned in the opening paragraph.
Cold Outreach — Gives you information on my cold outreach mistakes and how I fixed them.
Creating a Brand — Here I give my thoughts on what I realized about marketing.
Curiosity Reads — Here I include additional content from me on why to review you thinking and learnings from my trip to Egypt.

I recommend you skim to the content until you find something interesting. To identify different sections and sub-sections look for the bolded words.

TLDR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) — 2 Min Read

Learnings From Cold Outreach — I sent over 1000 emails and only got 3 calls. There are reasons for this: lack of credibility, targeting the wrong people, and lack of personalization.
1. Lack of Credibility — In my intro email, I had no social credibility (I was not an ex. Mckinsey, ex. Apple, or an Ivy league alumni). They had no reason to believe I can do what I was offering (mentioned in the first paragraph of the newsletter). I realized this from listening to a podcast with Shreya Dave (Co-founder & CEO at Via Separations). In 6 weeks she talked to 100 people. In the same 6 weeks I talked to 3. The big difference was she was a PhD at MIT and I was a random nobody.
2. Targeting the wrong people — My no credibility messages got 0 replies from production and supply chain people. I got 3 responses from sustainability people. Here I overestimated how much production and supply chain people wanted to improve their process. With sustainability people, their job is to help their company reduce emissions which is why a few responded to me.
3. Lack of Personalization — My original belief was if there is value then people will talk to me. Turned out that belief was false. When reaching out to sustainability people, my emails with no personalization had a conversation rate of under 1%. When I tried personalization I got a 15% conversation. This taught me people care more about the message being for them than the value that you are providing.
Why I Was Wrong About Marketing — I used to hold the belief that marketing was stupid. That’s not entirely accurate. I understood the value of marketing when selling products, but because it never came natural to me I wanted to create a label to take away my responsibility to work on it. This was until I had a realization, as a future CEO my entire job is marketing. Convincing scientists to talk to me about the cost factors of algae is marketing. Trying to raise money from investors is marketing. Convincing customers to buy your product is marketing. Recruiting people is marketing. Convincing people to work hard for the mission is marketing.

In previous newsletters, I focused on providing a summary of weekly algae progress. These updates included different cost factors, how I reduced them, and what products can be made from algae along with their economics. Currently the only thing I have left to do is to run an experiment to validate my cost (which I will be doing, just waiting on few shipments). My future progress will no longer be focused on algae itself. I will be focused on filling my skillset/knowledge gaps as they are building blocks behind the company. These gaps include (but not limited to):

The cost of project development for industrial processes to turn algae into products.
How to do good cold outreach.
Creating a Brand

I will sharing what I learn about these topics in future newsletters.

Why Did I Pick Those 3 Priorities?

Priority 1: Project Development - 1 min Read

During the implementation stage of algae, I need to deploy large industrial processes like pyrolysis and steam methane reforming (ones that already reached scale) to create products from algae. My previous work with algae was a cost optimization exercise not identifying a new technology. This means that my R&D time for initial product would be much lower than most climate companies.

This means that fundraising round number 1 (or seed) would include the cost to deploy at least 1 project with a customer. Knowing how much money I need for the first project would be helpful to know how much money should be raised. What I need to do is talk to project developers to understand how long it takes to deploy, the cost, and different points of failures.

It is completely possible I can get project finance (loan from a bank) and not need VC money for deployments because I’m using existing processes. To understand how bankers think when allocating capital for projects, I need to talk to project finance experts (who work directly with bankers) in the energy sector to get more details.

Side note: When I did a similar exercise with project developers in energy storage, I found 50% of project time was convincing utilities to give you a contract and banks to give you money for the project. There were work arounds that I ended up finding to not need a utility contract speeding up the process. I think it is possible that similar simple problems will be found when I talk to project developers of industrial processes used for algae.

Priority 2: How To Do Good Cold Outreach — 4 Min Read

Between now and the previous newsletter, I spent about 2 months reaching out to over 1000 people in production, supply chain, and sustainability at large oil and gas, apparel, and automotive companies. My end result was 3 calls. My low conversion rate is the reason I need to learn best practices of cold outreach. For now I will include my analysis of what went wrong.

Depending on the person I was reaching out to there was some permutation of the following message.

“Hi {name},

{Insert some opening line}.

I created a method to:

Cut your energy cost by 50% with a no-emission fuel (to replace natural gas).
Reduce the cost of your water in manufacturing by treating your wastewater (at no cost to you). The side benefit is you avoid potentially costing your company $90M because of wastewater dumping.
Decrease your plant emissions through capturing carbon in your flue gas stream (at no cost to you).
Remove transportation emissions through a carbon-negative diesel, cheaper than current diesel.

Want to learn more?”

If you were a supply chain person, I would only would send the diesel message since they deal with transportation. If you were a production person, then I would send the first 3. If you were a sustainability person, then I would send you all 4.

I thought this would do so great. It didn’t. I was confused, I didn’t understand why people would not respond to this. Don’t people care about reducing their cost? After I spent sometime reflecting, here is why they didn’t respond.

In my intro email, I had no credibility. They had no reason to believe I can do what I was offering. I realized this from listening to a podcast with Shreya Dave (Co-founder & CEO at Via Separations). She said in 6 weeks she talked to 100 people. In the same 6 weeks I talked to 3. The big difference was she was PhD at MIT and I was a random nobody. Who would you trust more? Definitely her. I never mentioned anything about my previous works with Shell, the UN, BenchSci (which works with 16 of the top 20 pharma companies). Mentioning the companies would have helped.
1. Targeting the wrong people — My no credibility messages got 0 replies from production and supply chain people. I had 3 responses from sustainability people. It seems sustainability people are looking for anything that can help the company reduce emissions. Here I learned the sustainability people are more inclined to talk to you. This makes the sustainability the right first person to reach out to in your sales process.
I didn’t personalize — My original belief was if there is value then people will talk to me. Turned out that belief was false. When reaching out to sustainability people, my emails with no personalization had a low conversation rate (under 1%). When I tried personalization I got a 15% conversation rate. This taught me people care more about the message being for them than the value that you are providing.

Outreach Best Practices

Throughout the time of messaging 1000 people, I also learned about a few helpful methods to increase open rate.

Following Up — When you are emailing people at large companies one of the things you need to do is get past their security protocol. It seems to me that the more you follow up the less you seem like a bot trying to steal their information. As result, you get moved from spam right into their inbox. Below is data from different campaigns I sent out including my initial open rate (first number) and my final open rate (second number) after 1-3 follow ups.

Example 1: 3% to 100%

Example 2: 35% to 46%

Example 3: 13% to 68%

Example 4: 71% to 100%

Example 5: 42% to 74%

Example 6: 38% to 100%

Example 7: 17% to 66%

Example 8: 17% to 100%

Example 9: 30% to 76%

Example 10: 59% to 100%

Example 11: 34% to 89%

Example 12: 43% to 50%

Example 13: 63% to 73%

For me this is great data for why you should follow up, their is a proven increase in the open rate which increases the likelihood of the response.
Adding Emojis to Your Subject Line

Imagine your opened your inbox and it looked like the one below.

Which email grabs your attention? Immediately you went to the one with the emoji. Why? Here is what I observe.
1. Emoji’s bring colour to black and white environment, making them more visible due to scarcity of colour.
2. They have a different shape compared to normal letters.
As a result of different colours and shapes, it is the unexpected thing which you look at it. Keep in mind, it is possible they never open your email, but they would have to make the decision to ignore it, rather than not see it at all.

If you inbox looked like the one below, then emojis would not be differentiating factor.

It seems to me that not enough people use emojis when they are sending outreach. As I learn more about outreach from things I test and different courses of people compiling together their knowledge, I will share with you the lessons as well.

Priority 3: Creating a Brand — 3 min Read

For the longest time, I believed that “Marketing is stupid, just create good product” or “Marketing takes no skill.” or “I’m not going to play those games {where I optimize for self-promotion rather than improving my skillset/continuing to make progress on the product}.

What I fundamentally did not understand is the entire job of a CEO is marketing. Convincing scientists to talk to me about the cost factors of algae is marketing. Trying to raise money from investors is marketing. Convincing customers to buy your product is marketing. Recruiting people is marketing. Convincing people to work hard for the mission is marketing.

The problem that I wasn’t facing was marketing is not a natural inclination/skill for me. When you are not naturally good at something, you complain about it even if it is completely your fault. I noticed in my circumstance, I just sucked at marketing my default. I can get better, but I would need to learn from other people. Intuition was not going to help here which is clearly highlighted by my initial low conversation rate in the cold outreach section above. I just didn’t know how to do it well.

I had heavy judgement towards people who play the branding game and don’t do much work. When I took the time to think, I realized: They are just playing the game. The problem here is I was operating under the idea, if I did the branding thing, I wouldn’t do the work to back it up. It just isn’t true.

You can do the work (in my case algae work). You can also make content, start podcast to talk to people, etc. By completely removing myself from the branding game, I took out any possibility of other people finding me. It always had to be me finding them. If you think about any sustainable recruitment strategy, how do you ever scale if you have to manually find each person in your entire company. In the early stages, it might work because you have a small team. As you grow overtime, manual recruiting is not a great strategy. You have to get the people to come to you. The only way you do that is through content.

I let my obsession with improving processes cloud my judgment on the value of marketing. I finally had the realization and I shall not do that anymore.

What Do I Need To Learn To Create A Great Brand

There are few essential skills

Design — Part of attracting attention. Step 1 is make your the initial visual look good and then step 2 is to create a good experience for people as they navigate the rest of your content.

On website you have a landing page which should instantly provide them the best information. Then the rest of the website you want smooth animations with an intuitive experience.

With a video, it needs to have good thumbnail then god content + cuts and visuals instead of just you talking. You also want words (like subtitles), it seems that having both written text and audio allow you to better grasp/understand the info. Notice how short-form content (tik-tok/youtube shorts) includes audio with subtitles to read on.
Copywriting — the act of good writing is useful for retaining people’s attention once you attract them with design. Part of your brand is your ability to publicly communicate clearly in ways people can remember. Something like ”Just Do It!” The line says nothing about Nike, but you always think of the company when you hear it.
Speaking/Storytelling — This is the skill that great comedians have. They can speak for an hour and keep people engaged and interested in what they have to say next. When reviewing videos of me. I realize I sound extremely boring.

What I’m describing above is general. Over the future newsletters, I will be expanding more on my understanding of each skill/discipline and methods of getting better.

Curiosity Reads

When writing this newsletter I also wanted to include two other topics, but I didn’t want to make the newsletter longer than 10mins. If you want to read about these 2 topics, then click on the buttons below.

Why you should review your thinking

Why Review Your Thinking

Learnings from my trip to Egypt

Learnings From Egypt

If you made it this far, I appreciate you and I believe you are an awesome human being. I wish you the most happiness. It is truly the only thing that matters.

What I Learned From Spending 2 Weeks in Egypt

Tue, 03 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT

The family and I went to Egypt for 2 weeks, below are some of my observations.

Note: Some of these observations are not Egypt specific. It just happened to be only time where I was actively observing the world when I went outside.

The Reality of Small Businesses

No matter where you drive, you can always find a small businesses. They usually consist of clothing stores, coffee shops, fast food/restaurants, and corner stores where you buy chips, water, pop drinks, candy, etc. I noticed that the owners of small businesses have little opportunity for upward mobility. You are sitting in your store (usually on your phone) and you are not gaining skills and you are not spending time attracting customers. You have little impact on your business outcomes. You can spend 30 years and you would be in the same financial situation. At least if you worked at a big corporation and spent 30 years doing the same thing, you can become a VP and have a good income for yourself and your family.

Food Culture

When eating with my extended family in Egypt, every time you finished your plate and someone noticed, they would instantly tell you to take more food or pick up your plate and add more food. Even if you were full, they don’t let you not eat. You don’t have a choice. Every meal you have includes bread. The word for bread in Egyptian Arabic is “aish,” which translates to “life.” This shows the significance of bread in Egyptian culture. There are bread bakeries that have more than 50 different types of products made with bread.

Land Development

There are a lot of land that have not been developed (basically a desert) and are filled with rubble. For most people, this land would be useless, but you can take advantage of Egypt’s strong sun, you can deploy solar on that land. In Egypt, only 2% of the energy is generated by solar. This is much lower than its potential. This seems to be an obvious idea and not many people have taken action on it.

Advertising

Advertising in Egypt is focused on physical signs and billboards. As you drive across the country you can see many signs for international (also known as private) school admissions, clothing, and housing compounds (also known as rich people housing).

Education

In high school, your grades determine your degree. Normally in North America (NA), your grades determine the university that you get into. In Egypt, your grades determine your major. If you had a 95, you would be going into computer science/computer engineering. You could of course pick majors that require lower grades than 95, but your parents will not be happy with that. Your parents have spent millions of Egyptian pounds (a decently large percentage of your disposable income) from elementary to high school (since decent schooling is not free) and you studied hard and got the best grades. Now you are settling for less than what you could have got? That’s not an easy conversation to have so people end up choosing the majors that maximize potential income rather than interest (which is similar to NA).

Transportation

In NA, when people drive, there are lanes. Every car should stay in the lane. In Egypt, when people are driving, they don’t stay in their lane. They sometimes drive in between 2 lanes. As result, you can fit more cars in the same horizontal area because the space between each car is minimized. One negative consequence is your traffic gets worse because more cars are fitting into the lanes.

If you wanted to tour Egypt or visit people, you realize quickly you can only do 1 thing per day. Everywhere you go is a long drive. 10km drive might take you between 45-60min at a minimum. Now you have spent 2 hours in traffic going there and back. By that time, you get to the place you want to go, walk around the tourist site, take some pictures, get on some camels, and come home. It is already 6 pm. The day is pretty much over and you barely did anything. At first this gets you disappointed and then you learn to change your expectation.

People also don’t drive with GPS. They just know exactly where to go from their brains.

Tourists

Warning for tourists. You are going to get scammed. Since my family was Egyptian and we speak Arabic, we didn’t have an issue. As I was waiting in line to get into a tourist site, I overheard a local Egyptian talking to a foreigner.

Normally, the place costs about 30 pounds to get a ticket. This guy was telling this non-Egyptian “Normally we charge 300 pounds per hour, but for you, we will make it 250 pounds.” This person was getting scammed hard.

At tourist sites (ex. the pyramids), people will offer you a ride on a horse or a camel. You will later notice that there are 20 other people who can do the same service. Everyone’s competing without having a clear advantage over another person. This is the same situation as the local business. Over 30 years, you don’t gain many skills that you can monetize and you have limited upward mobility because you are working for yourself, not a company where you can get promoted.

When you look at horses, donkeys, or camels. The people that own them have done a great job domesticating the same. If they are left alone without having their rope attached to anything and they can run away, but they chose not to.

Tea

People are obsessed with tea. They have one in the morning, before dinner, and after dinner. If you are bored at any time. Just make some tea.

Everyday Habits

When people are done with work, they come home to watch TV, help their kids with homework, eat, make food (if they are female) and eat. After that, it’s time to go to bed and they repeat. People on the poorer end of the spectrum, sit for long periods at the coffee shops (which are on every street corner). (Similar to NA)

People also have a low bar for classism. Even if you consider yourself middle class, it would be normal to have someone buy your groceries, drive you around, and runs your errands. This isn’t too different if you thought about Instacart to get your groceries, uber as your driver and TaskRabbit to have people do stuff for you.

Cheap Goods

All the stuff in Egypt and other developing countries is so cheap. If you wanted to start a business, you can arbitrage Egyptian (or any developing country) products and sell them in Western countries. You must have a local person do all the purchasing for you, so you don’t get the foreigner tax (mentioned in the shopping section below).

I think most Arab people who do this get cultural things like a pyramids and fabrics. What should do is sell basic need products, like water, cheeses, and bread. Stuff that people consume regularly, instead of specific cultural things. You then sell to the procurement person at Walmart, Costco, Wholefoods and your entire pitch is I can give you X product cheaper than any else. Hard to say no to that deal.

Shopping

When you buy products and people hear a word that is not Arabic or you don’t look like an Egyptian, they instantly raise the price of the product 3x or 4x.

Even if you are Egyptian, they always increase the price by default because people negotiate. The default market dynamic in Egypt is mutual distrust.

From the buyer’s perspective — the seller is going to increase the price because he is scamming me

From the seller’s perspective — the buyer will negotiate no matter what price I give him so might as well anchor high so we can get to the number I wanted to sell at.

Keep in mind, the negotiation process isn’t tactical like Chris Voss (ex. FBI lead hostage negotiator). There was no “We want a win-win” or let’s mirror the person so they believe I trust them or ask questions to gather information. The main negotiation tactic everyone uses is the following.

You: What is the price of X product

Them: {insert price} Egyptian pounds

You: You think I’m a foreigner? I know the price around here, you don’t charge these prices, stop scamming me.

Them: No no, this is a normal price man, if I make it lower than this then I can’t make a living.

The rest of the conversation is both of them repeating the same information until one of the three situations happens.

The seller reduces the cost.
The buyer leaves because you are not willing to pay the price.
The buyer end up buying at the price they give because you believe they are being truthful.

When watching girls buy accessories, they take a long time to make a decision. The framework is to look at the options (where you usually have 100s) at one local store and hum and hah until you and your friend agree on which ones to buy. If you also have limited money or purchasing power, your final decision is determined by the price. It is not uncommon to see the following. 2 girl best friends going out to buy some cute accessories (because they can). They hop in the store and spend an hour looking and trying different options and they always ask “What do you think?” to the other person. When you ask this question, you are making your purchasing decisions based on what other people would say is good rather than their own opinion. This makes sense, since clothes, accessories, and makeup are all methods of signaling to other people.

Half the time the friend is conflicted about if this is a good purchase or a bad purchase. Eventually, after you go back and forth and try out 50 different things, you have made your decision. I want these 2 {insert product}. In the end, you find the price and you return it because the accessories are too expensive for you.

There is a human algorithm that runs in your mind. You take into account your purchasing power, how much social value you can get by wearing X object, and does that benefit weight the cost. All of this is happening subconsciously and people are not aware of it.

I saw people buying ankle bracelets are the most pointless thing. That is the most pointless purchase. Nobody sees it (so no signaling).

Makeup

People that run makeup companies have an amazing understanding of female behavior. They can sell the dream with attractive models and claim that makeup makes them look like that. In reality, this isn’t the case because most people don’t have a fully symmetrical face, the right size check bones, and hair that glows.

For anyone that says “I wear makeup for me.” If that was truly the case, then why don’t you wear it at home by default, or when you sleep? You use makeup to look better in front of other people. That’s fine. It’s the equivalent of a guy going to the gym to get jacked and have a 6 pack so they can look better in front of other people. The intention is fine, just don’t lie about what it is.

Understanding the Price of a Product

When you buy products in the grocery store in Egypt your brain gets very confused because the prices are so different from your baseline. You can get a box of cheese for $15 in Canada. In Egypt, it would be 100 Egypt pounds. Even though you understand the currency difference and know it is cheaper to buy in Egypt than in Canada, you still think the cheese costs $100.

Garbage

When you walk across most of Egypt there is a lot of garbage on the streets. This does not seem to phase people at all, for people this is normal. If you used all the garbage as input into pyrolysis or gasification, you can create stuff like biochar to fertilize soil, bio-oil which you can turn into hydrogen to refine oil (used to refine petroleum), you can use the syngas gas to power the pyrolysis/syngas process.

Interacting With People Living on the Street

It is common practice to not make eye contact with a poor person so you don’t need to give the person money. The general mental model is if you don’t look at them you are under no obligation to give them money and now you don’t feel bad. If you look the person in the eyes and don’t give them money, you made the conscious decision not to give them anything and now you feel bad. You only chose to make eye contact if you are willing to give them money. Over time, it becomes normal for you to see people living on the street and you barely notice them.

Networking In Egypt

From what I have observed, it seems that functionality is the main reason you are introduced to people. If you tell your friend, I need a person who works in airport customs. You will get introduced if they happen to know the person who can help you with what you need. This could also be wrong since I didn’t have a chance to observe this with people on the wealthier end of the spectrum.

In NA, you introduce people to each other if you believe it will raise your status.

Traveling Problems — Stopped Here Before Leaving

Something I noticed while I spent half my days in traffic in a car and multiple days traveling on a plane was the design of headrests and seatbelts is not great. For the headrests, people don’t get that the biggest problem is your neck. You can rest your head just fine, but there is no curve to support your neck which is not the best consumer experience. With seat belts, usually sitting around your neck/collar bone area, you feel that the seat belt is reducing your capacity to breathe sometimes. This is more of a minor problem, but also not a great consumer experience.

Understanding How To Have Small Talk For a Long Time

One difficulty I had over the last couple of years is communicating with people who were not excited about learning new information. I hated small talk because I believed it to be a waste of time. I still believe it, the difference now is I understand how to have better small talk. The information below was not obvious to me before.

Normal people love showing you stuff from their different travels. When people travel they usually leave souvenirs in their house. If you spend time observing you will see different objects/pictures. It could be a random plastic elephant, or a toy camel. Ask them about those.

Ask about experiences when they were younger. People love to remember old times. You can see this by how often people take photos. They want to save it for the future and want to show others.

People love their pets. They can’t wait to tell you about them. They tend to take care of themselves more than they take care of themselves. They also treat their pets like children.

As you get deeper into the small talk, you then get to understand the problems they face, but you need to work your way to it. People usually don’t tell you about problems because they don’t want to be a burden. To be honest, if you were doing customer discovery to figure out a problem to solve, small talk with family members/family friends is a good method to do it.

Yelling/Getting Angry The Bad Cultural Trait

Whenever people face a problem that involve interpersonal dynamics, the problem-solving strategy tends to go towards yelling. Now you are fighting people’s egos not the actual situation at hand. The winner of the argument is the one who yells more and louder. If you are a calm person who does not get angry a lot, then you will not do great in this environment. When you are not in yelling reaction mode, your input/ideas are not acknowledged at all. This is made worse if you don’t have the authority of being the older person.

Why It is Important to Review Your Thinking

Mon, 02 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT

Back in June of 2022, I created a roadmap for everything I need to do/know to start an algae carbon capture company. This roadmap includes the algae growing process end to end, how I was going to turn algae into a product, and different steps for implementation. The problem was after I wrote it, I never looked at it again. The whole point of the roadmap is to give you direction for future action, if you never check it, then the roadmap does not fulfill its purpose. When you don’t check over your thinking you are bound to have obvious errors. Example from my roadmap below.

The first half of my roadmap was great. It indicated that I need to identify cost factors for cultivation, dewatering, and drying (big cost categories for algae), and identify what products I will produce. After that point is when I started to have bad sequencing.

The original sequencing includes Get customers —> Raise Money —> Hire engineers to build reactor —> File patent —> Hire project developers —> Deploy for customers.

Problem 1: Getting Customers and Raising Money Before Making The Product

If you were to evaluate the thinking process, you would realize I’m selling my product before I make it. It makes more sense to make the product than sell it to customers.

Problem 2: Raising Money Before Talking To Project Developers and Project Finance Experts

Since my technology was not new/novel the amount of research and development (r&d) capital would be minimal compared to most climate companies with brand-new technologies. This meant that the first round of funding should include the cost of 1 pilot project with customers. To know the cost, I need to talk to project developers who had deployed the same machines before to identify the cost. If I raised money before talking to project developers I likely will not be raising an adequate amount.

Since I’m deploying existing technology, it is possible to get project finance and not need to include it in the fundraising round. The reason I didn’t want to rely on it, is in case the banks say “Your company has no track record of building these projects so we won’t fund you.” I know this is true in energy storage. It is possible to get project financing if you spent 20 years in the industry and wanted to start another company that does the same work because your track record is transferable. Even if I could get project financing, then I would need to bring in an experienced person in project development on the team. This means I need to talk to them either way.

As I’m writing this, I realized I also need to talk to project finance experts in the energy sector. These are the people who deal directly with the banks and understand how they think. If you know the right information before raising money, you will know if you will get project financing from a bank or if you should include project costs in the fundraising round. This is an important gap in my knowledge. Talking to finance experts was not obvious to me before writing this. (Hint hint — this is why you review)

Problem 3: Not Knowing The Timeline of The Patent

If you don’t know, a patent provides you with a 20-year monopoly on your technology. This gives you time to do R&D, bring your product to market, and enough time to become a market leader.

The original roadmap includes me getting a patent after I raise money. If I pitch investors with no patent, everything I am telling is considered public disclosure, meaning that people can share your technology and it will no longer be considered patentable.

If you wanted to keep your invention protected, but did not have a patent then you need them to sign a non-disclosure agreement (NDA). You might think “This is a simple signature.” What you don’t realize is investors are not making decisions alone. They have a team to run due diligence on your technology to make sure what you are describing is possible. Investors need to talk to the partners to inform them of the decision and why they think you are a winner. This means a significant number of people in the firm need to sign NDAs. This is friction that investors don’t want to deal with, so they won’t talk to you.

Signing NDAs is also not standard practice for climate companies. Normally, some PhDs did research in a lab, the university filed the patent and the PhDs are licensing that patent to start the company. Having a patent is the default in climate tech. If you ask them to sign NDAs, they are going against the standard practice and they are taking more effort to interact with you. This is not worth it for them when they consider hundreds if not thousands of deals a year.

Based on this understanding, you should file a patent or intellectual property (IP). When you read an introductory book on patents (highly recommend reading this free book from Bold Patents Law Firm) to have context before you talk to the IP attorneys. You will learn there are 2 types of patents.

A provisional patent which is a 1-year patent
A non-provisional patent which is a 20-year patent

Before I describe why provisional patents exist, you need to understand that worldwide the common practice is a first-to-file system. The first person who files the patent will get the rights. A provisional patent in this case is useful for a couple of reasons:

It allows you to talk to investors, potential employees, and suppliers.
It allows you to test the market to see if there is interest in your product. This is relevant when you are producing a product where the demand is unclear
1. Ex. Imagine a machine that holds your books and flips the page when you read so you don’t need to put in any effort.
It allows you to refine your product while having patent protection.

Why would you not get a Non-provisional 20-year patent instead?

The difference between the 2 patents is cost. A provisional patent is cheaper to file (when using an IP attorney) than a non-provisional one. Why? A non-provisional requires formal claims, while a provisional does not. A formal claim describes a part of your invention and provides a clear limitation that other people can not cross, otherwise they are infringing on your patent. Keep in mind, you can infringe on a patent. It only becomes a problem when the person holding the patent is aware of the infringement and decides to sue you. If they are not aware, then there are no consequences.

When you create a brand-new technology, some of the details might be fuzzy. If you file a non-provisional patent and then have a change in your core technology, then the claims you have are no longer useful. The 1-year protection of a provisional allows you time to make sure you have the right claims.

Based on the information above, below is the updated roadmap.

Algae experiment to validate cost —> Talk Scientists —> Talk to Engineers—> Talk to Project developers —>Talk to project finance Experts —> Patent —> Raise Money —> Start a company and hire people —> Get Customers.

Note: It is possible for some of the steps to occur in parallel (ex. talking to scientists and engineers can happen at the same time).

The main piece of information that was not mentioned in previous sections is why the patent step happens before you talk to all the people who could be potential team members (scientists, engineers, project developers, and finance experts). Due to the limited 1 year timeline, you want to spend the most amount of time refining your product. You need to have the scientists and engineers ready to start working with you as soon as you fundraise (which is after patent filing).

The project finance experts help tell you whether you can get money from banks or not. Project developers, even if they are not needed to know how much money you should raise, it is important to identify how to reach them effectively so you can have fast recruitment when you need them. This is similar to me spending 2 months trying to figure out who is the right person to talk to at a large organization (is it people in production, supply chain, sustainability, innovation, the executives, or their board?) and how to best reach them. If I already raised money and spent 2 months to get the insights I mentioned in the cold outreach section, then it would look like I’m making slow progress. When I do it right now before raising money, nobody cares except me.

Side note: through me writing this update I added scientists and project finance experts to the roadmap. These are clear in hindsight, but I originally did not include them because I didn’t review the roadmap.

Mechatronics Fundamentals - Microcontrollers

Tue, 29 Mar 2022 00:00:00 GMT

There are 2 ways to communicate binary data.

Parallel = multiple bits at a time
Serial one bit sent at a time.

Parallel communication requires more transmission and receiving wires than serial (which can be implemented with just 3 wires). Parallel communication used to be popular because of the higher communication bandwidth and slower processing speeds of computers. Now that processors are orders of magnitude faster, the simplicity of serial has outweighed the bandwidth penalty. Now serial is used almost exclusively. Below is an example of parallel vs serial communication.

Inter-device communication can be synchronous or asynchronous. Synced has data in a continuous stream at a constant rate. This means that both the transmitter wire (TX) and the receiving wire (RX) devices must run at the same clock rate.

Asynchronous data is sent as needed, so no continuous stream. Clocks can be running at different rates, but devices need the same data (or baud) rate. The method of synchronization is through the start and stop bits.

Digital communication for MCUs is commonly done using async serial interfaces. Specifically, this is the universal asynchronous receives transmitters (UART) hardware device. Most modern microcontrollers have one or more onboard UARTs built in.

For 1-way communication, you need 2 wires: signal and ground

for 2-way communication you need 3 wires: signal out (Tx), signal in (Rx), and ground.

To send a byte (8 bits) of data, we must send 8 bits individually, plus a start and stop bit. The total would be 10 bits for each byte of data we send.

Baud Rate

The number of bits transmitted per second is represented by Time = 1/baud rate. For bytes per second = baud rate/10 (since you need 10 bits for 1 byte to transfer). Baud rate is set during serial communication configuration. Both devices must use the same baud rate. The tradeoff is higher baud rate —> higher communication speed and lower baud rate —> higher accuracy.

Typical baud rate (bits/sec): 9600, 57600, 115200

TTL Serial Communication

UART is a hardware device that implements transistor-transistor logic (TTL). TTL means communication means 3.3V or 5V is logic high, and 0V is logic low. 1 byte transmitted at a time is called a “frame”. Here you send the least significant bit (LSB) first and the most significant bit transmitted last). Below is an example with a byte of 01001011.

A bit with the value 1 is sent first and a bit with 0 is sent last.

Because the signal is digital you can be at either 0 or 5V. Signal starts are 5V when there is no communication and when you have a start bit you go down to 0 volts. It then goes back to 5V after a bit of time. Then you go from LSB to MSB until you get to stop bit. You then stay at 5V until the next start bit. You can take as long to start the next frame because information does not need to be continuous.

Serial Interfaces and UART communication

Once the start bit is detected (logic high goes to logic low), the receiver waits for 1.5 * T (bit time) and samples line 9 times at T sec intervals to read data.

How Baud Rate Affects Accuracy

How long does it take to transmit each bit if the baud rate is 9600? How many bytes are transmitted each second?

Bit speed = 1/9600 = 104.2 microseconds Bytes per sec = 9600/10 = 960 bytes per sec

If the clock speed on a receiving device was off 4 microseconds from the transmitting device, how would that affect your data reading?

As long as your data is in the same box (delay is lower than the value of T) then you are good because it reads the same data. If you were reading data with a 38,400 baud with a 4-microsecond delay for the receiver, what would happen?

Baud rate = 1/38600 = 26.0 microseconds/bit.

The delay of receiving the device is larger than T. Your data will not be read correctly. Clock rate mismatches between sending and receiving devices are the main factor that limits the Baud rate. Current microcontroller use clocks (digitally-controlled oscillators) that limit Baud rates to around 100,000 bit/sec.

When sending data from MCU (UART) to the computer via USB. We need to convert a TTL serial signal to a USB with adapter boards. The adapter boards have pins for TTL serial Transmission and receiving wires (TX and RX). There is a mini-USB connected on the other side. Example below.

UART Sending Operation

UART is a hardware device that implements TTL serial protocol. The explanation below is based on the MSP432 microcontroller that has 4 UARTs. From the datasheet, we find the transmission and receiving pins. The image on the right shows the 100 different pins available. All of their functionalities can be found in the datasheet of the microcontroller.

UART data is transmitted one byte at a time. The example below is specific to MSP432, but another microcontroller will have similar registers in the datasheet.

Step 1: Byte is written to Transmit buffer (TXBUF) registers.

Step 2: Byte is transferred to shift register. Shift holds the byte that is actively being sent. The transmit interrupt flag (TXIFG) bit is set high. That bit is set high indicates that the transmit data register is empty and you can write another byte to the TXBUF data register without overwriting something that is already there. To prevent this problem we can use a transmit interrupt.

Step 3: The data is shifted over by the shift clock. Every time the shift clock provides a pulse that registers the data is moved over 1 bit. The associated transmit line pin 1.3 for UART module 0 is set to the bit value shown in the highlighted square.

The data is shifted out and the pin is set high or low (1 or 0) depending on the bit value. The data gets shifted at the baud rate.

Step 4: Once the data is fully shifted then the line is set to its normal high position (because of the next start bit) and our transmit data register can be filled again with new data, and we can keep sending data this way.

Note: To send more than 1 byte of data you need to break down large amounts of data into 1-byte chunks.

UART Receiving Operation

Similar to transmission we can only receive 1 byte of data at a time. The UART senses that the start bit was set so it will start to shift the UART received shift registers. The clock pulse starts shifting data into the data shift register. The received data register now holds the byte that was sent.

At the same time, the receive interrupt flag gets set. It is bit 0 in the IFG register. That bit tells that there is data available in the receive data register or receives buffer that we can go get.

Our program will read that data into a variable. Once we read that data the receive interrupt flag automatically goes to 0 so it is automatically cleared, and then we are ready to receive another byte.

There are some ways it can go wrong. The most common is overflow error - suppose both receive buffer and shift register are full when another byte comes in. To keep the shift register clear, the UART device is going to take that byte of data and overwrite what’s in the receive buffer.

It means you didn’t keep up with reading the data fast enough. You need to make sure that as soon as that receive interrupt flag goes high you read the data. The best practice is to use a UART receive interrupt to make sure data is read on time.

I^2C (or I2C) protocol

Sensors communicate with microcontrollers commonly with the I^2 C protocol. It stands for the inter-integrated circuit. Used to communicate between microcontrollers, sensors, and actuators.

Key terms for protocol

SDA: Data wire. Data bits flow along this line

SCL: Clock wire. Transmits clock signal which is used to synchronize data transfer.

Master: Device (usually MCU) which controls clock (SCL) line. Usually only 1 per bus (collection of SDA and SCL wires).

Slaves: Devices (MCUs, sensors, actuators) that monitor SCL and communicate on SDA.

When implementing a I^2C bus, pull-resistors (which are part of an open collector circuit) which are needed on each line to set the logic level being used (either 3.3V or 5V) across all of the different circuit lines (SDA and SCL).

Some microcontrollers have SCL and SDA lines already tied with 3.3V or 5V via an internal resistor, so no need to use an external one.

Initiating Data Transfer with I2C

To initiate data transfer only the Master can do it, slaves respond to the master’s request. Data can be sent in either direction. Each slave has a unique address assigned to it. Usually 7 bits, but sometimes 10 bits binary number (this you can set address values of each slave device).

The address that you see for each slave is a hex number, which is a different method of representing numbers called the hexadecimal system, which is a way to represent binary in short form.

Data for I2C communication is sent in messages. Each message is broken up into frames. The address frame specifies which slave should be communicating. Data frames hold binary data that is transmitted with 1 byte of data.

Each message starts with Start Condition and ends with End Condition.

Start: SDA line changes from high to low while SCL (clock line) is held high.

End: SDA line changes from low to high while SCL (clock line) held high).

The only time SDA is allowed to change is when SCL remains constant. Below is a visual example.

Every frame (address and data) ends with ACK or NACK bit. If the frame was successfully received by receiving device, the ACK bit was sent (0). If the frame was not successfully received or understood, receiving device sends NACK bit (1). ACK stands for acknowledged and NACK is not acknowledged.

There is also a read/write bit: A single bit specifying whether Master is sending data to Slave (bit value would be 0), or Master is receiving data from Slave (bit value would be 1). A visual example of different components in a message is below.

Each bit in the frame is transmitted when a clock pulse occurs. Master device sends clock pulses on SCL line, then either Master or slave sets SDA line high or low to send data (either 0 or 1).

Many I2C communication devices have internal registers, meaning a slave has its own microprocessor or microcontroller that has its own registers that the master can either read from or write to. When we send data out we don’t just send it to the slave address, but we’ll need to send a slave register address. This can increase the complexity of the programming. Example below.

These are images from the datasheet of a temperature sensor that communicates with I^2C. The sensor has a few registers. The temperature register holds the temperature value and the configuration register which holds some configuration bits for how we want the sensor to operate. The data sheet shows the I^2C protocol to an internal register. You send the address and then in the first data frame, it is shown that you are sending to the registered address you want to send to.

Once the slave or temperature sensor in this case knows where you are trying to send data to then you can go ahead and send that. Depending on the type of sensor you have, the protocol might be a bit more complicated than what is mentioned for UART above. Not only do we need to send data to a slave, but we also need to send it to a particular register on the slave.

SPI Communication Protocol

SPI common protocol used for embedded devices. SPI uses the same idea as I^2C of master and slave devices. There are 4 wires to connect 2 SPI devices.

SCLK: Clock wire. This transmits a clock signal which is used to synchronize data transfer.

MOSI: Master out slave in the wire. Transfers data from the Master to the slave device.

MISO: Master in slave out the wire. Transfer data from slave to master

SS: Slave select wire. Activates slaves for communication.

Regardless of how many slaves are there. The same SCLK, MOSI, and MISO are used, but each slave they have theirs on SS wire.

How to add slaves for SPI

Daisy has less wires, but requires much more data transmission which is not useful the applications we need so just focusing on master-slave configuration. Like other protocols it works 1 byte at a time.

Example of SPI with general configuration.

Slave select line is held high when no communication is occurring. Master then holds the slave select line low to say I’m ready to communicate with you. Master sends 8 clock pulses to transmit 1 bit of data, but it is always transmitted in both directions through the Master out slave in, and master in slave out.

This means that both the master and slave need to receive and transmit regardless of operation. There is no read-only or write-only operation. the bit has to go in both directions.

Process of Sending and Receiving data with SPI

Step 1: Master puts data into transmit buffer register. If you want a master to receive from a slave you will need to send out data. You can send a byte full of 0’s which the slave can ignore.

Step 2: Data from the transmit buffer to places in the transmit shift register. The transmit interrupt flag goes high, telling us that the transmit buffer is free if we want to write more data.

Step 3: The master holds the slave’s select line low to tell the slave that communication is about to start.

Step 4: The master then gives eight clock pulses and the data gets shifted from along the MISO line and moves right into the receive shift register on the master. The MOSI line takes the data from the master to the slave, and the result is placed in the receive shift register on the slave. Note: SPI usually sends the most significant byte first.

Step 5: The data in the receive shift register is moved to the receive buffer, setting the receive interrupt flag high, letting us know that we can go get our data. Step 6: Finally, the master also raises the slave select line high, indicating the end of the transmission.

Comparison between UART, I^2C, and SPI

SPI and I2C are used for communication with MCUs, sensors, and actuators. UART is used for communication between MCUs and computers. SPI is the fastest, but you need more wires to connect the devices. This is needed for applications that require high speeds. The increased speed complex from the full duplex model, allows you to receive and transmit data at the same time. For my purposes, I^2C should be sufficiently fast, and it includes a less complex design because you only need 2 wires.

Mechatronics Fundamentals - Sensors

Sun, 20 Mar 2022 00:00:00 GMT

What are Sensors?

Devices are used to give feedback control enabling good timing for our actuators. Otherwise, they would be open loop making it not useable. A transducer is an active element of sensors that converts physical quantity into an electrical signal. Often times requires signal conditions for the electrical signal to be useful.

Signal Conditioning Circuits

Signals have noise and/or bias which can corrupt your signal and give you inaccurate sensor data. To improve our sensor data we do 2 things.

Amplifying sensor output to appropriate voltages to be read by the microcontroller. Amplification happens with op-amp circuits and reducing voltages using a voltage divider or voltage regulator.
Reducing noise (low pass filter) and bias (high pass filter) in an output signal. Noise is when you have a high fluctuation in frequency. Bias is when your actual value is 2, but we measured at around 5.

There are 2 types of sensors, analog and digital. Analog sensors create signals when quantity is sensed, while digital sensors produce signals when performing a measurement. For my purposes, I would be using an analog signal to constantly get a signal for my device. This means the microcontroller will read the analog signal using an analog-to-digital converter (ADC).

Low Pass filters Remove high-frequency content from the signal. For mechatronics devices, this manifests in the form of high-frequency noise. There are 2 types of low pass filters

Type 1: Passive low pass filter

Known as an RC (resistor and capacitor) circuit. Passive circuit meaning it does not need to get powered. Schematic below.

The filter time constant represented with the Greek letter τ (tau) is the resistance * capacitance or T = R * C

Type 2: Active low pass filter, here we use an op-amp circuit that amplifies and filter the input signal. Filter time constant is T = R2 * C.

The amount the signal is amplified is called a filter gain G=R2/R1.

A higher T value means more noise is removed, but there is a lag. A lower T value means less noise is removed, but there is less lag. Example below.

The value with high Tau represents a better signal but has some time lag. Depending on the application you would pick a low Tau or higher tau value. For applications that don’t need instant real-time feedback to function, you would use a filter with a higher tau value. This low pass filter can be implemented in software instead of circuitry.

High Pass Filters

Sometimes you have a DC bias which is a fixed voltage offset. For example, the sensor produced 1V output when reading input of zero. To do that we use a high pass filter (RC circuit) the key difference is your switched the position of the capacitor and resistor compared to low pass filter circuitry.

Key Specifications For Sensors

Sensor range: a physical quantity that can be measured by a sensor (ex. temperature).

Sensor accuracy: the difference between true and measured values. Expressed as a percentage of full scale (FS) maximum value. It can be improved through calibration. The process has you take a measurement with your sensor, compare it to a reference standard, and write code to offset the difference.

Sensor sensitivity: the relationship between measured input and output of output. Most sensors have a linear relationship. Below is an example of a linear relationship with a sensitivity of 330mV/g. This value is helpful when reading voltage levels on a microcontroller to tell us how many g’s of acceleration your system is experiencing.

Sensitivity is called the scale factor or sensor gain. Below is an equation to relate input to output.

Sensor resolution: smallest change in the input that will produce an observable change in output value. This is true for digital sensors since they produce a digital signal only when performing a measurement. Most analog sensors don’t have a resolution, since they give continuous output. Resolution depends on the configuration of an analog-to-digital converter (ADC).

Purpose of Analog to Digital Converters (ADC)

Goal in reading analog voltages with microcontrollers. The problem with only reading digital values (from digital sensors) is you can only detect digital high (over 2V) and digital low (under 0.8V), but the voltage measurements in between are unaccounted for. ADC (a hardware device) can fix that problem.

If we had an 8 bit ADC and a range of 0 - 3.3V. 0V would be 8 bits with a value of 0 (e.g. 00000000) and 3.3V would be 8 bits with a 1 value. Voltage values in between would be mixture between 0 and 1. Voltage numbers between 0 and 3.3V would be mix between 1 and 0 for the 8 bits.

Operating Principle of Analog to Digital Converters

ADC works based on using a sample and hold circuit. Clock rates of ADC affect measurements.

By using ADC to measure analog signals you can select a sampling rate, which is how accurately you capture the characteristics of the signal.

What you want to do is have enough sampling points to be able to correctly identify the shape of the wave. Below are examples of undersampling and oversampling. In undersampling, our slow detection can lead us to think that we have a straight line. Oversampling allows us to know that there was a sin wave, but it is not memory efficient.

To fix the sampling problem we use the Nyquist sampling theorem, which says you must sample at a greater frequency 2* frequency (2f) to represent the signal. Frequency = 1/time. We then go through trial and error until we have a decent representation of the wave. The goal behind the theorem is to minimize memory use.

Most microcontrollers have built-in-in ADCs.

ADC Specifications

Range: Voltage range of ADC (ex. 0 — 3.3V)
Resolution: Smallest distinguishable difference in input (ex. 0.15mV)
Precision: Number of values ADC output can take on (ex. 256 for 8-bit ADC)
Clock speed

Range (volts) = Precision (# of alternative values) and Resolution (volts).

Resolution is determined by the range and precision. If we use more bits to represent a voltage range, then we have a higher resolution. If we use larger voltage range and keep the number of bits constant, we have a smaller resolution. Formula for computing a resolution of ADC.

Example: 8-bit ADC with a range of 0-3V. 3-0/2^8-1 = 0.0118V. Below is the output of voltage in binary output.

Binary Numbers and Decimal Numbers

Digital computers are made from transistors. Since they usually operate in on and off states, that makes your computations act in a binary way. The number we normally use are represented by base 10. Think of the number 235, we say it as two-hundred and thirty-five or 200 + 30 + 5.

The computer thinks in base 2 because there has a binary operating system (0 or 1). Below are examples of how a base 10 number is turned into a base 2 binary number.

Placeholders in binary numbers are called bits (mix between binary and digit). A group of 8 bits is called a byte. Groups of two bytes is a word and a group of 4 is a double word.

2 Important terms. The most significant digital (MSB) represents the bit that represents the highest power of 2 and the least significant bit (LSB) which is the opposite. Example below.

MSB and LSB are important for understanding the process of data transfer from an MCU to a computer.

For a given voltage range every extra bit approximately doubles the resolution.

Note: ADCs are only available in an even amount of bits. 9 and 11 bits are there for sake of example.

There is a trade-off between resolution (in bits) and conversion time. As you increase resolution, you increase your conversion time. Below is a table with the resolution and clock speed tradeoff.

For applications that require a fast sampling rate, you would reduce you would want to reduce your conversion time. If your application does not need the fastest sampling rate then you have a higher bit system to have more specific measurements.

You would start with equation below.

Range (volts) = Precision (# of alternative values) and Resolution (volts).

2.4V/0.009V + 1 = 267.6

2^8 = 256 This means that our bit size needs to be above 8. Since an odd number of bits are not available we would buy a 10-bit ADC.

Mechatronics Fundamentals - Electronics

Thu, 10 Mar 2022 00:00:00 GMT

In previous updates, I talked about optimizing the cost of algae and different products you can make. In this update (and future ones) I will be introducing the different aspects of mechatronics, and the disciplined needed to build the algae hardware device. In this update, I will be introducing electronics which includes anything from components of a microcontroller, to building circuitry and many more.

What is Mechatronics?

Mechatronics is a discipline that integrates electrical, mechanical, and software components together to build hardware. A mechatronic device has 3 core components: sensors, microcontrollers, and actuators. Sensors tell you what is happening (ex. telling you the temperature in °C). Microcontrollers take information from the sensor and then decide on the best action for the actuator. Microcontrollers make the decision based on the software program that is written on them. Actuators are the devices that do the action in the software program.

Example Application for Algae

Here is an example that is useful for algae. The optimal temperature is around 25 °C. The sensor detects the temperature at 20°C. The microcontroller program has instructions to deal with this. If the sensor temperature is below 25°C increase the heat input, if the temperature sensor is above then reduce the heat input. In this case, the temperature is below 25°C so we will activate our actuator to increase the temperature in the tank to reach optimal temperature.

Microcontrollers (MCUs)

The microcontroller is an integrated circuit that is used for controller operations of our mechatronic device.

Elements of a Microcontroller

Microcontrollers have 3 main components. Memory, central processing unit (CPU), and input/output devices. All of them are connected by a data bus (a method of distributing and managing data in real time).

CPU — (Executes program instructions)

There are 3 main elements:

Control unit — generates timing signals and gets program instructions from memory to execute.
Arithmetic and Logic units — perform actual instruction on data
Registers: Memory holding locations while arithmetic and logic units are performing instruction.

Memory

Memory has 2 different types:

Volatile — your memory disappears if power is off
Non-volatile — your memory stays even if power is off

Microcontroller Basics

Breakout Board

To be able to use an MCU we need to pair it with a breakout board (together called a development kit). You want a breakout board because it makes it easier to connect wires to an MCU. The image below shows the relative size difference between microcontrollers and breakout boards.

General Purpose Input-Output (GIPO) Pins

They allow the interface of your microcontroller with other devices like sensors and actuators. Shields are available for the MCU development kit for integrations between the development kit and other peripherals (sensors or motors). Shields can be placed directly on top of a microcontroller helping connect sensors or motors (an actuator) to MCU without wires.

The image below has an image of different pins in a microcontroller. The functionality of all of the pins can be found in the documentation of the microcontroller.

States of a Microcontroller

Programming Mode — External programmer (your development kit) writes a program towards flash memory. Your arithmetic & logic (A&L) unit is not doing much here.

Normal Operation Mode — You power your MCU and the flash memory executes instructions on the arithmetic & logic unit. The A&L unit fetches the next instruction from the flash memory. The cycle repeats.

You can execute code directly from your computer into the microcontroller. On your development kit, you have an onboard emulator which includes a USB connection to a PC. This helps program MCUs, enables debugging from a PC, and provides power to MCU from USB.

Electronic Circuits Components

Electronic Circuits carry electrical signals which carry information between MCUs, sensors, and actuators. Below are the different components, their symbol, unit of measurement, and circuit symbol.

Resistor — a device that provides resistance to the passage of an electric current. This happens through the dissipating of some electrical energy into heat energy. This protects your components from a higher voltage (electrical energy) than they can handle.

Capacitor — a device that stores electrical energy. Similar to a resistor, but a different method of reducing energy input.

Inductor — a device that stores electrical energy in the form of magnetic energy.

Ideal voltage source — Voltage is the difference in electric potential between two points. Electric potential is the amount of work needed to move a unit charge. An ideal voltage source can maintain the fixed voltage independent of the load resistance or the output current. However, a real-world voltage source cannot supply unlimited current.

Ideal current source — Current is the rate of flow of electric charge. Similar to an ideal voltage source, but for current. Voltage is the cause of current (being an effect).

Important Relationships Governing How Voltage and Current Interact with Circuit Elements

Relationship 1: Voltage and Current (Ohm’s Law) — Voltage = Current * resistance.

Relationship 2: Voltage, current, and capacitance — derivative of voltage = 1/capacitance * Current.

Relationship 3: Inductance and voltage — a derivative of current is 1/Inductance * Voltage.

The value of these relationships is to help us decide on the specification of our circuit elements. For example, based on the understanding of voltage and current we can decide how many Ohms of resistance we need for each resistor in the circuit.

Alternating Current Voltage vs DC Voltage

Alternating current (AC) voltage is sinusoidally varying voltage. When working with AC signals we need to generalize resistance (since it is not constant), this is called impedance. Direct current (DC) voltage is constant voltage over time. The difference is AC changes direction periodically (relevant to the sinusoidal pattern) and DC voltage only allows current to flow in 1 direction. Depending on the application you would use a different type of current. Below is an image showing the waveforms of both AC and DC voltages

Resistors and Power

Resistors provide resistance to the passage of an electric current, dissipating the electrical energy into heat energy. This protects your components from a higher voltage (electrical energy) than they can handle. To be able to finetune the resistance of a resistor we should use potentiometers.

They are variable resistors that can be tuned to precise values, which provides a better capacity for the user to adjust the resistance to a precise level (since normal resistors have discrete values).

As you increase resistance, you increase your power dissipation you need to be aware of the amount of heat in the system. Below are the equations for both AC and DC voltage.

DC Power (or heat) dissipated = Current * voltage = current^2 * resistance

For AC voltage, you have time as an additional variable due to its sinusoidal nature. You can get instantaneous and average power for it. Equations below.

The AC voltage equations are similar to the DC ones. The difference is you have a new input of time with sine and cosine (based on the sinusoidal structure of AC voltage).

Power dissipation is an important specification for circuit elements. If your circuit power dissipation was higher than one of the circuit components, your device will overheat and fail.

Identifying Power Dissipation in Circuit Example

The circuit below has a 12V DC voltage and a resistance of 500 Ω, what is the minimum power rating you need for the resistor?

If we were to look at our DC voltage power dissipation formula we can see we don’t have the value for current. This means we need to start with our first Constitutive relationship — Ohms law

V=IR

V/R = I

12V/500Ω = 0.024A

P = IV

P = 0.024A * 12V

P= 0.29W

When buying the resistor you need to have a power rating of 0.29W or over. Otherwise, it can overheat and fail.

Kirchoff’s Current Law

The law is the sum of current into (or out of) a node is zero. A node is a location where I1 splits into I2 and I2. Kirchoff’s laws follow the same idea as the conservation of energy.

Summation notation on the left, circuit on the right.

When doing circuit analysis to find current we would be using Ohms law $V=IR$. We would then turn it into $I = V/R$

Kirchoff’s Voltage Law

Kirchoff’s voltage law is used for circuit analysis and understanding voltage regulator types.

The law is the sum of voltage drops and rises around any closes path in a circuit is 0.

When doing circuit analysis to find current we would be using Ohms law V=IR. We would then turn it into I = V/R.

Reducing Voltage In a Circuit

Method 1: Voltage Divider

Sometimes you need to step down voltage otherwise your electrical components could overheat. This can be done using voltage dividers, created by placing resistors in series. They are used for sensor interfacing or reading potentiometer values (low current applications).

You use high values for your resistors (1k ohms - 10k ohms range). When stepping down a voltage you have your combined voltage drop Vi and to measure the voltage drop across resistor R2 that would be called V2 related by the following equation.

The left side is the circuit where we are measuring the voltage drop across resistor 2 and the right shows the equation to find V2.

Using Voltage Divider Example

You have a sensor that requires an input of 5V DC. You have a voltage source that provides 15VDC. Design a voltage divider (find R1 and R2) that will allow you to power the sensor from this power supply. In this case, we will make the arbitrary decision to have the R1 resistor be 1k Ω.

V_2 = (R_2/R_1 + R_2) * V_i

V_2/V_i = (R_2/R_1 + R_2)

5/15 = (R_2/1000 + R_2)

R_2 = 500 Ω

Typically 500-ohm resistors are not available. We would need tight tolerances, for that we can use a potentiometer. Also, know that if you have 5.1V or 4.9V for your sensor it should still work.

Method 2: Voltage regulator

Voltage regulators are used to stepping down voltages for motors and LEDs (high current applications). Voltage regulators provide a single output voltage (e.g. 5V) for a range of input voltages (7-35V). This is helpful when you have voltages that change. If one day you had 10V and the next it spiked to 10.5V you would still have the same output of 5V.

Types of voltage regulators

Linear voltage regulators use an operational amplifier (op-amp) and transistor to achieve stable output voltage. They have a dropout voltage value of about 2V. If we wanted to have a 5V input then we would need 7V or higher to account for the dropout voltage.
Switching Regulators — the path is switched on and off (toggle switches) quickly to reduce average voltage. These devices have a 95% efficiency vs a 60-70% efficiency with linear regulators. The benefit is you need less power and you have less power dissipation than linear. The trade-off is switching regulators are more complex.

Operational Amplifier

Many sensors have an output voltage signal that is too small to be read by a microcontroller. To amplify the signal you will an operational-amplifier (op-amp) circuit.

Type 1: Open-loop operation

The output voltage (Vo) is the difference between non-inverting (V+) and inverting input (V-). This is then multiplied by a scalar value (amount of amplification) — (Kol). The K value is usually around 10k or 100k.

The output is called saturation voltage (difference between V+ and V-). If you look at the image on the right you see even with small positive or negative input values saturation of voltage is reached quickly. An open loop operation is called a voltage comparator. The downside is the op-amp gain changes with the difference in voltage supply and temperature of the device making it.

Non-inverting (closed) loop operation

To have a stable gain we use non-inverting op-amps. They use feedback to drive the op-amp. The output voltage is dependent on the input voltage and R1 and R2 (representing the amplifier gain). For specific values, you can use a potentiometer.

Inverting Op-amp

Used to amplify voltage signal and invert it. Gain is determined by R1 and R2. Used in current to voltage converts to current output from the sensor to a voltage output, which is read by analog to digital converter.

Grounding

In a mechatronic device, you have lots of components that are connected. You need all of them to have the same ground point (final destination in the circuit) to make sure you don’t have a difference in electrical potential which can increase the noise and bias (problems that affect the accuracy of sensor data).

Semi-Conductors

Semiconductors are between conductors (they move energy) and insulators (keep out energy). They have a non-linear voltage-current response.

A diode is a type of semiconductor. They allow current to flow in one way. Your applications are lights (LEDs), sensors (photodiodes), and circuit protection devices (flyback diodes).

Ideally, diodes have no resistance, real ones have small resistance. There are 2 modes of operation — forward and reverse-biasing. The difference is the direction of where you want your current to go. In forward bias operations, it is about letting current through. In reverse, it is about eliminating current flow in a certain direction.

Symbol for diode

Light Emitting Diode (LED) — Emit light when forward bias. Colour is determined by either a semiconductor material or plastic housing over a diode.

Photodiodes (opposite of LEDs) - allow current to pass through when light shines on them. The amount of current passed by the diode is proportional to the amount of light it receives. Ex. Night light.

Flyback diode — Used with DC motors (ones that convert direct current into electrical energy) to make sure your switching elements are not damaged in your circuitry. Side note: Mechatronic devices often used transistors instead of switches.

Bipolar Junction Transistors (BJT)

BJT is a common circuit element, used as a solid state switch. Below is a BJT symbol in a circuit and the different relationships of voltage.

BJT is a current controlled device. The current supplied at Base (B) determines the current flow to C and E. Small base current allows a much larger current to flow from collector to emitters. There are 3 states: off, linear, and saturation state, determined by voltages at C, B, and E.

Only off and saturation states are used in mechatronic devices. As a general rule voltage at the emitter is always lower than the voltage of the base by about 0.6 volts.

In high-current applications like motors and LEDs. They will be switched on using a microcontroller. The microcontroller provides and accepts low currents, meaning they will not be able to power motors and LEDs. MCUs will instead act as a switching element, that will switch the current path between a voltage source and a motor.

Transistor switch circuits are used to switch high power loads from low-power devices. Below is what the integration of a transistor switch circuit looks like.

The way this works is Voltage input or V(in) coming from your microcontroller provides energy to the base (B), activating a transistor. Your other voltage source V(cc) moves the current I(c) through the collector, emitter, and eventually grounding point (found at the bottom of E or the emitter— the 3 lines).

Essentially your microcontroller controls the function, but you are using a new voltage source to power higher current devices. There are 2 major states for mechatronic devices: off state and saturation state.

In the off state, the voltage of V(be) or Voltage of the base and emitter is under 0.6V. This means that I(c) = 0 and V(out)= V(cc). This means that no current went through our load.

In a saturation state where V(be) is over 0.7 volts. This means our I(c) is over 0 and V(out) = V(ce) = 0.2V meaning that current did flow through the load.

Designing a Transistor Switch Circuit

Question: When V(i) = 0 (off state) no current flow through the collect and emitter. What voltage of V(i) is required to switch the transistor from off state to saturation state allowing current to flow through load using the circuit below?

There are 5 known variables and 3 unknown variables

Known:

V(cc) = 12V — R(c) = 5k Ω — R(b) = 2k Ω

$Vout = Vce = 0.2V$ — value in saturation state

Unknown:

V_i = ? I_C = ? I_B = ?

We need to find voltage using Kirchoff’s current law

I_c = (Vcc -Vce)/R_C

I_c = (12-0.2)/5000

I_c = 0.00236A

We then use the linear state equation (before we get to saturation)

I_b =B/I_c

I_b = 0.00236A/100

I_b = 0.0000236A

V_i = I_BR_B + Vbe

V_i = 0.0000236A * 2000Ω + 0.7V

V_i = 0.747V

To switch on the load you need more than 0.747V.

BJTs are used to build open collector outputs. This allows you to connect sensors to digital input pins on your microcontroller, allowing sensors with different output ranges to create digital high (3.3V or 5V) or digital low (0V).

The circuit above is an open collector circuit that uses a sensor to drive the output of the BJT. The pull-up resistor R(p) helps keep the same voltage level for V+ (saturation of positive) and V(out). V+ is the digital (or logic) high voltage (3.3V or 5V).

Digital low means that there is not enough to put our BJT in the off state. This means that no current is gonna flow from the collector to the emitters and V(out) will be 5 volts, no current will flow through the pull-up resistor. When you have a digital high for the sensor V(out) will decrease as the collector had current flow through the emitters hitting the grounding point. Below is a set of different BJTs and their specifications.

MOSFET Transistors

The transistor is the interface between high-power and low-power devices in a circuit. MOSFET or Metal-Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistors are a common type of transistor used for switching. MOSFET is used for high-power applications (ex. Motors) and BJTs are used for low-power applications (ex. sensors). The voltage supplied at gate G determines the flow between D (drain) to S (source).

They have 2 states: Off, and Saturation (on). In off state: Drain source resistance is high —> no current flows from Drain to Source. Saturation (On) State: Drain-source resistance is low (below 1 ohm) and current flows from D to S. Internal resistance is high at the MOSFET gate (10^14 ohms) meaning no current flows through the gate. This is what allows you to separate your high-power and low-power applications. Important specifications for MOSFET transistors:

The switching speed is in the nanosecond range. Commonly used to switch high-power loads (motors, LEDs) from logic level devices such as microcontrollers.

Motor Circuits

DC motors rely on electromagnetics to convert current flow to physical motion. Since MCUs can not power high loads you use motor driver circuits. With common motor circuits, you are limited by binary operations of on and off and you can only choose one direction of operation and the speed is the same and can not be changed.

To be able to change directions we use an H-Bridge. They get their name from the shape they resemble (H). Below is a schematic of an H-bridge.

When switches s1 and s4 are open then s2 and s3 are closed and the motor turns in one direction. When switches s1 and s4 are closed and s2 and s3 are open then the motor turns in the other direction.

H-bridges are not built from mechanical switches, they are built with transistors, diodes, and logic gates with transistors acting as the switching elements. These devices have fast switching times (nanosecond range) and may have built-in flyback diodes.

Above is an example of integrated circuits with an H-bridge to be used for direct current motors. The Enable (ENBL) line connected to MCU is used to switch the motor on and off. Phase is used to set the direction of the motor. Other lines are used for more advanced functionality.

With H-bridge, we can just have our motor go in 1 direction or another. To change the speed of our motor we use a digital-to-analog converter (DAC). DAC circuits generate a variable output given a binary number input. Below is a schematic.

You usually need 8 bits (or binary inputs). For each bit, we need an MCU output pin, which is not an efficient use of wires.

Instead, we can use pulse width modulation (PWM) which uses a single GPIO pin to create a variable voltage output. There are 3 quantities that define a PWM signal: Pulse width, period, and voltage. Below is an example of a PWM wave.

To compute our voltage or duty cycle we can use the following formula.

Below are 3 examples of a duty cycle of PWM signals. All of the PWM signals have a fixed frequency that is independent of the duty cycle. All these signals have a frequency of 1/100ms = 10Hz.

To get the average voltage we use the following formula.

We can change the average voltage by changing the duty cycle. For example, If V(dd) was 12V that we can produce an average voltage in the range of 0-12V range adjusting the duty cycle between 0-100%.

As a variable power signal, the PWM signal draws current I at some voltage. To find out the average power per cycle we use the following formula.

This means that we can change the amount of power or by changing the duty cycle. PWM signal is input into the enable pin of an H-bridge, which turns the H-bridge on and off. If we send a PWM signal to the enable pin H-bridge, then it will turn it on and off and turn outputs at the same rate as our PWM signal. We will then need another digital input signal from a GPIO pin and we can put that into the phase or direction input of our H-Bridge. All it does is when the motor is 0 it will turn in one direction, if it is 1 it will turn in the other direction. Below is a schematic for pin inputs of motors.

To be able to measure the speed and position of the rotating motor we use encoders are sensors that connect rotating devices to measure angular speed or position.

Turning Algae Into A Value Add Product

Wed, 02 Mar 2022 00:00:00 GMT

What is the Best Process to Create a Value Add Product From Algae?

After algae is dried, my main priority is to produce biochar. There are 3 main processes to produce biochar: pyrolysis, carbonization, and torrefaction.

All of the processes are essentially the same, you heat your biomass to a couple hundred degrees of heat with a limited presence of oxygen, the main difference is the product motivation behind them.

For example, the primary motivation of pyrolysis (called fast pyrolysis) is to maximize its liquid production while minimizing the char yield. The objective of carbonization (called slow pyrolysis), on the other hand, is to maximize fixed carbon and minimize hydrocarbon content of the solid product. The objective for torrefaction is to maximize energy and mass yields with reduction in oxygen to carbon (O/C) and hydrogen to carbon (H/C) ratios.

Seems that our 2 main options are carbonization and torrefaction. The key difference between the two is temperature. Torrefaction works between 200-300°C, carbonization works between 300-500°C. As a result of the different temperatures, carbonization drives away most of the volatile organic compounds (VOCs), but torrefaction retains most of it.

You don’t want VOCs in your biochar because VOCs vaporize into the atmosphere at room temperature. Since VOCs vaporize at room temperature — around 68 to 77°F (20 to 25°C) and ideal soil temperatures for planting most plants are between 65 to 75 degrees F. (18–24°C.). This suggests that VOC content will evaporate from the soil. Since biochar stores water, when the VOCs vaporize, the same will happen with water. Water includes all of the nutrients that are needed for a plant to grow. When the water evaporates you also lose nutrients. VOCs have been shown to cause detrimental effects on leaves, flowering, seed production, protein content, plant metabolism.

Based on this knowledge, it seems that carbonization (or slow pyrolysis) is the best for maximizing biochar yield and removing VOCs. The output of carbonization us 30% bio-oil, 35% synthetic gas, and 35% biochar.

What Are Economics of Products From Pyrolysis?

If were to have 1000kg (1 ton) of algae biomass we would get 300kg of bio-oil, 350kg of synthetic gas (syngas), 350kg of biochar.

Bio-oil can be turned into hydrogen through a steam reforming reaction using a fixed bed reactor. The hydrogen can replace natural gas for applications like producing fertilizers The first application I would use would be heating oils. In the U.S. about 60% of energy comes in the from heat, requiring heat oil. Heating oil trades at a $3/gallon about ($0.79 liter). 1 liter = 1kg. This means 300kg of oil would sell for $238.

For syngas, the primary application would be diseal fuel (which would be used for cars). You can’t use syngas as the direct fuel because it has high self-ignition temperature (typically above 500°C) and as a result, it cannot be ignited by compression ignition in a diesel engine, making it not useful for a car. You would need to convert syngas to diseal fuel using the Fischer-Tropsch process (working at 150–300 °C). The conversion efficiency from syngas to diseal is between 60%-90%. For this calculation I assumed 75% efficiency. 350kg of syngas becomes 262.5kg of diseal. Diseal costs about $1.5/liter. The 262.5kg of diseal would sell for $403.

Side note: FT naphtha (C5–C9), FT middle distillates (C10–C20), and FT wax (>C20). FT middle distillates (diesel and jet fuels) are the premium fuel components that contain virtually no sulphur and have a high cetane number (a measure of the ignition quality of diesel fuel; the higher the number, the easier it is to start a standard direct-injection diesel engine).

For biochar, the comparable selling cost is fertilizer. Considering the benefits mentioned earlier, biochar acts a fertilizer and a soil enhancer. The 8 major fertilizers (UREA, MAP, DAP, POTASH, etc.) cost anywhere between $596/ton to $1431/ton. For this calculation will price biochar at $1000/ton, but would need to validate with farmers how much they are willing to pay for it. The 350kg of biochar would cost $350.

When you combine the 3 products of bio-oil, syngas, and biochar you would make $991 ($238+ $403 + $350) per 1000kg (1 ton) of algae biomass.

Note: I would need to talk to people in the industry to validate that this thinking is correct.

How Would You Decrease Opex of Pyrolysis?

What you might notice is I conveniently didn’t mention the operational cost of pyrolysis. You would need a significant amount of energy to be able to fulfil 300-500°C everyday year round. Since I want to avoid emissions from the process I would need some form of renewable energy and energy storage. For this case I would use solar panels for energy generation and sand for energy storage.

The idea for using sand might seem to have come out of nowhere. I was recently watching an interview with a Finnish company called Polar Night Energy who are using sand to store heat for months. Most energy storage is focused on the hours to days time scale. The reason this company wanted to store heat for months is Finland did not have any sun for months during the winter time.

After watching that interview I thought what about if I used the same concept for a pyrolysis machine.

The advantage of sand is it costs between $30‒$50/ton (very cheap). From my understanding most (if not all of the opex) for pyrolysis comes in the form heat. With sand storage it would give 0 carbon heat instead of using natural gas.

How Does Sand Thermal Storage Work?

At high level how here is how sand can be used for energy storage. You use surplus energy from renewable energy to heat sand at 600°C (temperature it can hold for months). Particles are fed through electric resistive heaters which converts electricity to heat at a 100% efficiency. The heated particles are then gravity-fed into insulated concrete silos for thermal energy storage.

Image of what this would look like with the outcome of producing electricity.

When energy is needed, the hot particles are fed through a heat exchanger. Heat exchanger is a device used to transfer thermal energy without the 2 fluids mixing. Here you have sand and another fluid that would be exchanging heat. Although individual grains of sand are solid, when you get a lot of them, they behave like a fluid. Heat exchanged works on the principle that thermal energy is always transferred from hot to cold. The sand would lose thermal energy and transfer it to the other fluid. For the case of polar night energy the other fluid will be water (since that is what requires most heat in a home), for the case of pyrolysis I still don’t know which fluid would be required. Once the sand is discharged, cold particles are once again fed into insulated silos for storage until conditions appropriate again for charging.

The image above is a schematic by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of a sand battery that work as mentioned above. The addition is once the sand has transferred its energy to another fluid it the heat is pressurized into a working gas inside to drive the turbomachinery and spin generators that create electricity for the grid. For pyrolysis, you would need heat not electricity as your output so your process would be different. I will be learning more about how to do that in future updates.

It is mentioned the system designed by NREL have no particular siting constraints and can be located anywhere in the country. These systems may also be constructed using existing infrastructure from retired coal- and gas-fired power plants. The baseline system is designed for economical storage of up to 26,000 MWh of thermal energy. With modular design, storage capacity can be scaled up or down with relative ease.

The main point is the heat can be stored in the sand can will be used to heat up the pyrolysis and the Fischer-Tropsch process (which turns syngas into diseal) removing any operational cost. Your cost comes from the capex of solar panels and and sand battery structure.

What Are The Economics of Algae with Drying and Pyrolysis?

My cost of algae is only $0.12 per dry kg of algae or $120/ton. For the industrial processes there is no opex cost because of your thermal storage with sand and renewable energy. Making that also cost $0.

With revenue of $991 and a cost of $120 per 1000kg of dried algae you have about a 87% margin. Of course this is not final, I would need to test growing algae in the lab with dewatering and drying to validate the cost of $120/ton and talking to customers to verify the $991/ton revenue. I also did not count any of the capital cost payments required for the machine.

Reducing Cost of Drying

Thu, 24 Feb 2022 00:00:00 GMT

TLDR:

Decreased cost of algae from $1.12/kg to $0.12/kg

There are 3 main cost categories for algae. They are cultivation, dewatering, and drying. In my previous update, I worked on decreasing the cost of drying. This week, I will go through my current hypothesis to decrease the cost of drying.

What is Drying?

Drying is the process of removing moisture through the application of heat. After algae is separated from water (through dewatering) you would dry the algae biomass. From there you can either extract proteins, lipids, and carbohydrates to turn them into valuable add products. Another option is to use an industrial process like pyrolysis to make valuable add products. A value add product is the change in physical state to enhance the value of the product.

Drying is about 20% of total algae cost. The status quo cost of algae biomass is $5/kg, which means your drying cost is about $1.0/kg.

I started this week looking potential methods of turning algae into a valuable product. From an emissions perspective, it was something that can stay in the ground for a long period of time that has some value people would pay for.

What is the Product?

The product that fits the criteria of would be biochar. Biochar can be stored in the ground for thousands of years and is a good alternative to fertilizer. Here is a great paper highlighting all of the benefits from over 20 years of research. The most important benefits are increased resistance to disease and reducing nutrient leaching.

When taking into account other applications of algae like cosmetics, food Additives, Supplements. Many require approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). For initial starting applications, I thought I would avoid products that require FDA approval to speed up the process of deployment. This led me down the pathway of industrial processes like gasification, carbonization, and pyrolysis.

How Can You Make Biochar?

From looking at industrial processes, I found hydrothermal processes and non-hydrothermal processes. On the hydrothermal side, you have hydrothermal gasification, hydrothermal liquefaction, hydrothermal carbonization. On non-hydrothermal side you have gasification, pyrolysis, carbonization, torrefaction. The difference between both type of industrial processes is hydrothermal does not require dry biomass while non-hydrothermal products do. No drying means a cost factor removed.

When looking into the hydrothermal processes and non-hydrothermal processes both had 3 main products: Bio-oil, synthetic gas, and some form charcoal (or char). The only different product wise is hydrothermal processes make hydrochar instead of biochar (with non-hydrothermal processes). The difference between the two is biochar has 20+ years of research on it, while hydrochar is fairly new (because hydrothermal processes are fairly new at scale). From the limited papers that exist on hydrochar there seems to be no yield benefit when you put it in soil. This results in hydrochar not providing revenue for its value, making it not useful. This made me decide that biochar was the product I needed.

I chose to dry the biomass first and then select the best process for producing biochar among with other products like bio-oil and synthetic gas.

What is My Drying Hypothesis?

Similar to my work on reducing the cost of dewatering of algae, I was aiming to have next to 0 operational cost.

Based on that I started to look into solar drying because it was using solar energy to dry the object (which is essentially free). To be clear, I’m not choosing solar drying because it is necessarily the best method of drying. I’m currently optimizing for the fastest information progress that would give me a cost projection cheap enough to start building out an MVP.

What is the History of Solar Drying?

The original form of drying was natural drying or open sun drying, the crops are put on compact earthen floor, mat, concrete, floor, and road in the full sunny days. The biggest problem was because all of your product was exposed to various contaminations—dirt, pest infestation, and loss by birds, and many more. The contamination made you lose product and/or reduce the quality.

Newer forms of solar drying consisting of different greenhouse structures fix this problem through it’s closed system. This means the contaminants are blocked from entering because there is a barrier.

What is the Optimal Solar Drying Design?

As you go through review papers on solar drying you will find there are many different types of solar dryers and designs proposed by researchers.

Based off the techno-economic analysis of 10 different designs and models. All models had payback period (for their capital cost) in under 3 years. This suggests to me regardless of model greenhouses for the use case of drying are not incredibly capital heavy.

Key Differences of Greenhouse Models

For every greenhouse you can make the decision to have passive or forced convection.

Natural convection is the method of air flow that requires no energy input. Forced convection uses a fan to speed up the movement of the air flow, requiring energy input. The difference in outcome is forced convection is about 20-25% faster to dry biomass compared to natural convection.

Natural convection (or the passive mode) works on the principles of thermosyphic effect. The initial energy source is the radiation of the sun or any other heat source. The energy of the sun (in the form of heat) is then captured by a solar collector. Solar collectors generate heat energy from radiation of the sun, whereas solar panels produce electricity from photons. When air or water (which are inside the solar collector) are heated, they gain kinetic energy from the heating source and become excited. As a result, the water and air becomes less dense, expands, and thus rises.

Increasing temperature of air inside a greenhouse makes the water (moisture) inside algae to become less dense to escape algae. Once the water has evaporate it rises to the goes to the top of the greenhouse where it is then pushed out of the closed system through a ventilator.

Forced convection works on the same principle, but includes a fan to speed up the movement of air flow, resulting in faster drying times.

What is the Economic Trade Off for Natural and Forced Convection?

When looking through dozens of different papers I found a study by El-Shiatry et al. He had a solar tunnel dryer that can dry 100–200 kg of food per day under forced convection mode. The dryer was tested for drying of tomatoes, grapes, onions, potatoes, basil and wild marjoram under the metrological conditions of Egypt. The highest electric consumption of 19.5 kW h for drying of 1000 kg of grapes was recorded; while only 4.4 kWh was consumed by radial fan for 200 kg of basil. The consumption of electric energy for operating the dryer in most cases was between 0.1-0.2kwh (about 1-2 cents if you bought the energy from the grid) per kg of dried algae. The overall payback period for capital cost was estimated to be about 2-3 years. Since the energy would come from a solar collector and stored in sand (mentioned later in the update) there would be no operational cost required and minimal capex since you need only a solar collector to cover energy requirement.

An important problem to note is algae has more initial moisture than agricultural crops making algae take more time and energy to dry. In the case that the drying with forced convection is too expensive then natural convection will be used.

Changed To Cost of Algae

With a solar dryer we can remove the entire drying cost of $1/kg. Before this update we our cost was $1.12/kg and now our cost is $1.12/kg or $120/tonne.

Reducing Cost of Dewatering/Harvesting

Thu, 10 Feb 2022 00:00:00 GMT

TLDR:

The overall cost went from $2.62/kg to $1.12/kg.
Using filamentous fungi as my harvesting method. The method achieves above 90% harvesting efficiency (based on over 20 studies).
The current status quo cost of harvesting is $1.5/kg. When using fungi there is no energy cost and only the cost of the fungi (which is negligible). In this case, we can assume that all $1.5/kg for dewatering is gone.
Main mechanisms for how fungi help to separate algae from water
- The acidic pH of fungi creates net positive charges which attract negatively charged algae.
- Hydrophobins (proteins in fungi) form a hydrophobic (water-repellent) coating on the surface of the algae.

There are 3 main cost categories for algae. They are cultivation, dewatering, and drying. In my previous update, I worked on decreasing the cost of cultivation. This week, I will go through my current hypothesis to decrease the cost of harvesting/dewatering. Note: Harvesting and dewatering refer to the same action of separating algae from the water.

What is Dewatering?

Separate algae from the water. Once the algae are separated from the water, aggregates of wet algae biomass can be formed. You would normally take this wet biomass and dry it to maximize your density of algae biomass (to be discussed next update).

Dewatering is about 30% of total algae cost. When you put in mind that the status quo cost of algae biomass is $5/kg, which means your dewatering cost is about $1.5/kg.

Status Quo of Dewatering

There are many different ways to dewater algae including physical, electrical, and chemical methods.

Physical methods include centrifugation, filtration, and flotation. They can achieve high efficiencies, but there is a significant energy requirement. This increases the cost of algae biomass where it is not feasible.

Gravity sedimentation can greatly save energy during operation, but the time consumption and species-specific feature limit its wide application.

Negatively charged algae can also be concentrated by the electrical method, whereas the establishment of an electric field requires massive capital expenditure. The chemical method that is involved with the utilization of organic and inorganic flocculants can aggregate microalgal cells in a short time, but the complicated reagents may result in biomass contamination and the decrease of biofuel values.

In this update, I will be investigating fungi as a potential flocculant for cost-effective dewatering with algae. This hypothesis initially came from the understanding that fungi and algae have co-existed together for the last 500 million years. Together they are described as lichen, which refers to the symbiotic relationship between algae and fungi. Fungi secret extracellular enzymes which can convert solid organic matters into soluble nutrients and carbon dioxide, making it easier for microalgae cells to be assimilated. In turn, microalgae release oxygen (through photosynthesis) to promote fungal respiration.

Introduction to Filamentous Fungi for Harvesting

Filamentous fungi can immobilize microalgae through mycelial (root-like structure of fungi) interactions. Immobilization refers to preventing algae from attaching to water. When algae are not attached to water, the fungi will help algae aggregate. The biomass output can later by a sieve (wire or plastic mesh) because of their relatively large size (>1 mm in average diameter). This process takes no energy and your only input cost is buying fungi.

There are two types of co-cultivation modes for harvesting: fungal spore-assisted or the pellet-assisted method. Fungal spore-assisted harvesting is the process of co-culturing fungal spores (one-celled unit that multiplies through asexual reproduction) organisms with microalgae to form aggregations. Forming an aggregation is creating a cluster of algae biomass. The pellet-assisted method happens by adding pre-cultured fungal pellets directly.

The Outcome of Harvesting With Fungi

Based on this review paper, out of 15 pellet-assisted harvesting experiments, the harvesting efficiency is between 65% and 99% with timing between 0.5 hours and 72 hours. There were also 10 spore-assisted harvesting experiments which included a harvesting efficiency between 93% and 100% with timing between 4 hours and 72 hours. The difference in harvesting efficiency is dependent on algal and fungal strain interaction since harvesting efficiency is species-specific. When you change the algae strain or fungi strain, you would get different results.

The key difference between both methods is most pellet-assisted experiments tend to have a timeline under 24 hours whereas spore-assisted tend to have a timeline between 24-72 hours. The majority of pellet and spore assisted tends to be above 95% efficiency. If there is a difference in efficiency from either method it would mostly be a matter of diminishing returns. Regardless of the general tendencies, you also have outlier combinations. For example, Chlorella Vulgaris (algae strain) combined with Aspergillus sp. (fungal strain) was able to get >97% harvesting efficiency in under 4 hours with the spore-assisted method.

The outcome of high harvesting efficiency comes from 3 major interactions. The main interactions are electrostatic, hydrophobic interactions, and specific interactions with components of the cell walls.

Electrostatic Interaction

Depending on the pH value in the culture system, ionizable groups which are molecules that can be broken down into ions (elements that have a charge) can be protonated (add a proton/increase positive charge) and deprotonated (losing a proton/increasing negative charge) to create charges on the surfaces of algal cells.

The alkaline pH (pHs greater than 7) of microalgal culturing conditions the ionizable groups of algae cell walls deprotonate to be negatively charged. The net negative charges on cell walls induce electrostatic repulsion between algal cells, pushing them away from each other.

The fungal spores or pellets are introduced to the algae culture medium to stop suspension in water and create aggregations of algae.

For the pellet-assisted method, since the pH value in the fungal medium (where fungi are cultured before being introduced to algae culture) is acidic, the surface functional (carboxylic and amine) groups of mycelium remain protonated, leading to the net positive charges of the fungal hyphae. Therefore, when positively charged fungi contact negatively charged algal cells, charge neutralization can fully display advantages to eliminate the Zeta potential. Zeta potential is an efficient indicator to measure the degree of electric force which avoids aggregation of particles. Once the systematic Zeta potential is near zero, the repulsive cells can approach each other by the attraction of charge, hydrogen bonding, and van der Waals forces, subsequently occurring co-pelletization.

For the spore-assisted method, the spores are introduced to an algae culture. Due to their natural acidic pH (less than 7), they change the pH of the system. The fluctuation of ambient pH alters the charged properties of cell walls inducing electrostatic attraction.

The difference between both methods is mainly time. Fungi by default have a pH of less than 7 (spore), when it is cultured (grown before adding to algae culture) you make the fungi have lower pH to increase the force of the positive charge to speed up the algae and fungi attraction, increasing harvesting time. Most pellet-assisted experiments tend to take 24 hours whereas spore-assisted tend to take between 24-72 hours.

Hydrophobic Interaction

Hydrophobicity is the property of an organism that repels water.

The hydrophobicity of filamentous fungi is generated by surface-active proteins, known as hydrophobins. Hydrophobins are a group of small (~100 amino acids) proteins that are expressed only by filamentous fungi. They are known for their ability to form a hydrophobic (water-repellent) coating on the surface of an object (this would be algae).

The initial electrostatic attraction of both fungi and algae would create aggregation and the water-repelling property would create another force to have algae separate from water (once connected to fungi).

Interactions with Specific Components on Cell Wall of Fungi

Talukder et al. found a positive relationship between the content of chitin (the primary component of cells walls in fungi) and microalgal immobilization (or harvesting) efficiency because the strongly charged chitin could function as a cationic (or a positively charged) flocculant to neutralize the negative charges on the surface of algal cells.

Similarly, the amorphous polysaccharides on the cell walls of fungi, usually bonded with proteins as glycoproteins, also play an important role in cementing other microbial cells by delivering positive charges, helping attraction of algae and fungi.

When certain divalent ions (an ion with 2+ or 2- charge) exist in the solution, the components on fungal cell walls can be linked with microalgal cells to form aggregations through ions bridging. Li et al. measured the calcium-binding ability of Streptomyces sp. pellets, and the final results suggested the addition of 5 mM (millimolar) of CaCl2 (an ion with a 2+ charge present in fungi) displayed the highest flocculation efficiency.

Li et al. investigated the critical function of proteins on fungal mycelium (root-like structure of fungi) during the flocculation (aggregation) process. When proteinase K (found in extracts of Engyodontium, a genus of fungi) was added into microalgal suspension with fungal pellets. The structure of proteins on the cell walls of the fungi was destroyed and the flocculation efficiency was only 0.11 times in comparison with the control without any addition.

These are a few of the many mechanisms within the fungi cell wall to help increase or decrease harvesting efficiency.

Main Variables That Determine Harvesting Efficiency (In Order of Importance)

Fungal-algal strain + type of fungi harvesting — They determine the main interactions that occur. When you change the algae strain or fungi strain, you would get different results.

Algae strain — Chlorella Vulgaris (since it has the highest CO2 capture rate)

Fungi strain — to be determined. The current placeholder (based on 1 paper) is Aspergillus sp. with Chlorella Vulgaris created a >97% harvesting efficiency in 4 hours. This happens with using pretreated molasses (or distillery/liquor production) wastewater.

Since I’m already thinking about using Chlorella Vulgaris with some type of wastewater, this would be a good place to start (for experiments).

Type of fungi harvesting method — to be determined. The example mentioned above was a spore-assisted harvesting method.
Nutrients source — Glucose

When referring to the nutrient source, I’m not talking about nitrogen and phosphorus (the main nutrients for algae). These are nutrients specifically to enable fungi growth. Since fungi are heterotrophs they rely on eating other organisms for growing. One of the inputs they need is a source of carbon. This can be glucose, glycerol, and acetate. All have different effects so they should be tested for. In general, glucose is the most suitable organic carbon source for fungi and algae to be utilized, and the concentration ranges from 2 to 20 g/L in diverse conditions.
Fungi Algae ratio — fungal spores and algae during the growth period may compete for limited resources in the medium due to the inappropriate inoculation ratio, which results in the excessive predominance of one species. A high concentration of spores means that more available nutrients in the medium need to be assimilated by fungi to support metabolism, forming a larger size of pellet to capture algae into the mycelium and further inhibiting the growth and biomass productivity of algal cells.

For example, the ratio of Aspergillus fumigatus (fungi strain): Botryococcus braunii Kossou-4 (algae strain) with the range from 1:20 to 1:50 has decreased the harvesting efficiency from 97% to 35%.
Temperature — 20° to 30°C

Here you are optimizing for the optimal temperature for both algae and fungi. It will be in the range of 20-30 degrees (since that is optimal for algae). When you go higher than 30 degrees the algae starts to deteriorate which would not be helpful for harvesting or the biomass output. This will likely involve the selection of fungi strains specifically to be under 30**°**C.
pH

Most papers suggest between a 7.0 to 8.0 pH for algae so you would specifically find fungi strains to fit this range (similar to how it would be done with temperature)

What Does Fungi Harvesting Mean For Algae Cost?

Based on the last update. The status quo cost breakdown would be 50% for cultivation, 30% for dewatering, and 20% for drying. Cultivation would be $2.5/kg, dewatering would be $1.5/kg, and drying would be $1/kg.

I brought down cultivation cost to $0.12. With fungi as the harvesting tool, the only input cost is the initial fungi itself, similar to the cost of algae cells they are negligible to the point where they are not accounted for in operating cost. In this case, we can assume that all $1.5/kg for dewatering is gone. Now you only have cultivation cost and drying cost getting you to $1.12/kg of algae. Keep in mind there is probably some margin of error about the current cost I’m proposing vs when I test it.

Reducing Cultivation Cost of Algae

Sun, 30 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT

TLDR:

Decreased Cost of Algae from $5/kg and to $2.62/kg
Projected to have $135,630 in net profit from one 5,000 liter reactor per year (not including transportation cost).

There are 3 main cost categories in algae farming: Cultivation, Dewatering, and Drying.

Cultivation is the process of growing algae. Dewatering is the process of separating water and algae cells. Drying is the process of taking the water-separated algae and increasing the density (measured in grams of biomass per liter or g/l). This week I focused on cultivation.

There are 3 main components to consider in cultivation: Nutrients, CO2, and Lights.

Nutrients

Algae need nitrogen and phosphorus to grow. Those nutrients are abundant in wastewater. As algae use nitrogen and phosphorus, they also clean wastewater. The US government pays around $5/gallon to clean their wastewater. You can clean wastewater for $4/gallon with algae.

Below are excerpts from a review paper showing how effective algae is for wastewater treatment.

“The algal pond could remove pollutants, especially N and P, more efficiently compared to the conventional activated sewage process (Zhou et al., 2014). C. Vulgaris, achieved a nitrogen reduction percentage of 100% in wastewater, under high light supply conditions (Gonçalves et al., 2014).”

“The study showed 80% TN (total nitrogen) removal efficiency. This coincides with a study reported by Iasimone et al. (2018). Affected by C. Vulgaris, 94% TP (total phosphorus) removal efficiency was recorded at the end of the cultivation period.”

Algae can also work with almost any type of wastewater. Algae can produce biomass in wastewater such as urban wastewater (Tercero et al., 2014), domestic wastewater (Aziz and Ng, 1992), textile wastewater (Chu et al., 2009), piggery wastewater (Ji et al., 2012), membrane-treated distillery wastewater (MTDW), and Biogas slurry.

My current understanding is algae hits government regulations for wastewater treatment. I am using the proxy of algae wastewater companies that work with governments to assume that algae clean the water up to the standard. I would validate through testing.

Adding glucose increases yield by 30%

CO2

From different conversations, everyone in the algae industry pays for CO2 to help grow the algae. My current hypothesis to decrease cost is to get flue gas (about 10-15% CO2) from manufacturing facilities. In Canada, there is a $50/ton carbon tax. You would take the CO2 and capture it using algae. Money made from carbon capture can be split 50/50 between you and the manufacturer.

From looking at research done by the University of Kentucky, they have been able to connect tubes from a manufacturing facility to a CO2 tank. The tank is then connected to the photobioreactor. This leads me to believe that connecting tubes to the manufacturing facility to extract CO2 is possible.

Lighting

With photobioreactors, there are tubes and there are lights.

The lights can be found outside of the reactor. When scaling your algae operation (with small tubes), you will lose up to 30% of your yield inside of the valves — which control the flow of CO2. With one large reactor, you only lose about 2% from valves.

With a large reactor, the material acts as a barrier to light penetration. This results in light not reaching the middle of your reactor, giving suboptimal lighting for your algae.

If you put your light inside the reactor, you can increase your photon input to the algae by 10x, meaning you can get the same amount of algae to yield with 10x less power for LEDs. To further improve light absorption, you can genetically modify the algae to increase their light absorption efficiency by 20%, reducing that amount of light you need by 20% after the 10x decrease. For example, a study on tomato plants grown under LED lighting found that supplementing with IR light at a wavelength of 730 nm increased plant yield by up to 25% compared to plants grown under visible light alone. When you add glucose you can increase yield by another 20-30%. When you add fungi, you can increase yield another 30%.

Steam Cleaning

After growing algae and removing it from the reactor you can find extra clumps of algae. If you keep them there you will contaminate your second batch. To solve this problem people use steam cleaning. The problem is you need to have over 100 degrees heat input into your system. To remove the energy requirement we will use UV radiation to clean up the tank and remove contamination.

Cooling

With light inside the reactors, some of the energy from LEDs goes is lost in the form of thermal energy. Increased heat will create suboptimal growth for algae. People in the industry use cooling. After talking with experts it turns out the heat increase was only 5-10 degrees which has negligible effects on algae growth. So we can remove the cost all together.

Labor

Manual for algae harvesting and cleaning represents about 20% of cultivation costs. Some companies like Industrial Plankton have made automated harvesting and cleaning to require 90% less labor, saving money.

Overall Costs (With Improvements Mentioned Above)

The cost of algae farming before making any improvement is $5/kg. 50% of the cost goes into cultivation. If you were to break down the cost of photobioreactors, it would (approximately) look like this.

Nutrients (10%) — $0.25
1. Cost is eliminated because algae have sufficient nutrients from wastewater, which does not have a cost.
2. New cost = $0
CO2 (5%) — $0.125
1. Cost is eliminated be from getting flue gas from manufacturing facilities.
2. New cost = $0
Lighting from LEDs (35%) — $0.875
1. You put the LEDs inside the reactor to decrease the energy requirement by 10x.
2. You can genetically modify the algae to increase light absorption reducing your energy costs by 20%
3. Cost: $0.875/10 (reduction for light inside reactor) = $0.0875 * 0.8 (reduction from genetic modification) = $0.07
Cooling (20%) — $0.5
1. We don’t need the cooling function because the extra heat in the system is negligible.
2. Cost cost: $0
Steam Cleaning (10%) — $0.25
1. UV radiation makes the energy cost negligible.
2. Cost: 0.0
Labor (20%) — $0.5
1. Labor cost is reduced by 90% through automation of the harvesting and cleaning of reactors.
2. Cost: 0.5 * 0.1 (to represent 90% reduction) = $0.05

Overall: 0 (nutrients) + 0 (CO2) + $0.07 (lights) + $0.0 (cooling) + 0.0 (steam cleaning) + $0.05 (labor) = $0.12/kg. Cultivation cost went from $2.5/kg to $0.12/kg. The new overall cost is went from $5/kg to $2.62/kg.

From talking to employees at the company Brevel I found they got to $1.25 for cultivation. Some of the improvements I mentioned above were directly from them. The difference between us is algae is genetically modified to absorb more light. The cost of nutrients was removed from using wastewater. The CO2 cost was removed from using flue gas from manufacturing facilities. A cold thermal battery (and eventually a heat recovery mechanism) to reduce the cost of cooling.

Brevel currently has a (collective) cost of $1.25 for both dewatering and drying. Even though they are using status quo methods they have a 2x cheaper cost. From a few other calls, it was mentioned that cost of dewatering and drying is cheaper in indoor algae operations. If we were to use Bevel’s cost of dewatering and drying (which I will improve in the future) plus the new cultivation cost of $0.77, you get about $2/kg which is a significant improvement from the original $5/kg.

For economics, there are a couple of ways you can make money using algae. Using carbon taxes or carbon credits, cleaning wastewater, and producing biofuel.

Understanding the Cost Factors

Mon, 17 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT

TLDR:

Cost of algae needed to become economically viable is between 6 to 9 cents for algae weight to make cost competitive biofuel (this is why you need other applications since).
You need 71,249,232,876,712 kg of algae wet weight to capture all of the world’s co2. This would use 0.478% of the world’s land.
Everyone in the industry uses raceway ponds (outdoor algae farming) and says indoor algae is “too expensive.” I have chosen to work on decreasing cost of indoor algae farming since it has a lot of advantages yield productivity due it being a closed system. I have identified several cost factors for indoor algae farming: material cost of photobioreactor (used for indoor farming), operational cost of LED lights, operational cost of pumps. In the document I elaborate more on potential ways to decrease cost.
Identified all of the variables involved in growing of algae and provided my current answers what input is best for each variable.

What Everyone in the Industry is Doing

98%+ commercial microalgal biomass production uses open ponds. From having a few conversation there seems to be the common idea of “Photoreactors [how algae is grown indoors] is too expensive.” People use that logic to discredit indoor algae farming. What they are saying is true, the upfront cost is higher. I have been told photobioreactors are made from high quality plastic to be able to transmit light inside the reactor at high efficiencies.

What is My Claim?

Algae can be a cost-effective method of carbon capture.

What is the Metric I’m Optimizing For?

Cost per kg of wet weight algae and by extension includes cost per kg of dry algae.

At What Cost Will Algae Become Economically Viable?

Algae can be used to make pigments, proteins, cleaning wastewater, carbon capture, biofuel, fertilizer, etc. From the growth of 1 set of algae it seems you can have multiple applications from the same algae. It was mentioned to me the reason why algae biofuel companies failed (in 2010 era) is they only had 1 application of algae, which makes the economics not work. If algae were to work then you would need multiple applications (to make multiple sources of revenue.

Right now the cost that I’m optimizing for is the cost of algae biofuel (which is related to wet and dry weight of algae). As time goes on and I add more applications the cost of algae that I would need to get to will change.

Algae in culture is wet weight. After you harvest algae it is called dry weight. The dry weight is turn into biodiesel (or biofuel). The conversion from wet weight to dry weight is 20-30%, then from dry weight (of algae biomass) to biodiesel is 17.8%. 1kg = 1 liter.

Best case = 0.30 * 0.178 = 5.34% efficiency from wet weight to biofuel. Worst case = 0.2 * 0.178 = 3.56% efficiency

The current cost of petrol in Canada before Ukraine/Russia oil spike was $1.65/liter.

Cost needed for algae Best case = 1.65 / (100/5.34) = 0.0088 or 8.8 cents per kg of wet weight. Worst case = 1.65/ (100/3.56) = 0.058 or 5.8 cents/kg of wet weight. Global Algae (a top X-prize carbon capture team) has decreased cost conventional cost by 6.25x and they are at 0.80kg/dry weight of algae. This means biofuel would cost $4.5/liter (with a conversion of 17.8%), 2.7x more than where they need to be. The above is the reason why you need other applications otherwise you won’t be profitable.

How Much Algae To Capture all of the World’s CO2?

A typical open pond (where you grow algae) can produce 5 to 10 grams of biomass (dry basis) per m2 of surface area per day or 1.8kg to 3.65kg of biomass per year. There are 4046.86m2 per acre. The lowest CO2 biofixation rate from chlorella vulgaris can capture is 1.5g of co2/Liter/day if it is not put a 25% concentration of CO2. The depth of the algae culture is between 10 to 50 cm or 0.1m to 0.5m. With 4046.86 m2 and a depth of 0.1m (worst case) then we would have 404.686m³. 1m³ is 1000 liters. This means you would have 404,686 liters of algae culture per acre (also called wet weight) If we capture 1.5g/liter/day then 1.5 * 404,686 = 607,029g of Co2 per day. 907185g = 1 ton. In 1 day you can capture 0.669 tons of Co2 per acre. In 1 year you can capture 244 tons of Co2 per acre. To capture all of the world’s Co2 (43 billion tons). You would need 176,229,508 acres. 1 Km2 = 247.105 acres which is 712,493 km. The world has 149 million km2. To capture all of the world’s co2 you would need 0.478% of the world’s land.

What I Learned This Week

Big Picture on The Industry

Commercial Algae production has been initiated since 1960s and nobody has figure it out yet. The reason why biofuel companies failed is they only looked at the use case of biofuel from algae. To have good economics you need to have multiple applications to be economically viable. This is made clear by the calculation above on if you only used biofuel as your only application your costs would need to be under 10 cents kg of wet weight algae.

Applications

The common applications I have seen — protein, carbon capture, omega 3 fatty acids, biofuel, cleaning wastewater, bioplastics, pigments, aquaculture feeds, cosmetics, fertilizer.

Depending on the type of application the purity you need changes. If you are cleaning wastewater then your algae purity standard is much lower than if you were to make cosmetic additives

What Everyone in the Industry is Doing

Cost Factors That Need To be Improved

Cost Factor 1: Capital Expedititure of a Photobioreactor

What is unclear to me is why do we need high quality plastics to transmit effectively light and make sure our algae and its nutrients like CO2, Nitrogen, Phosphorus, water do not leave the reactor.

My perspective is your can use a cheaper material to achieve the same outcome. In the worst case you have your have a lower efficiency in light transmission, but your upfront cost goes way down.

Different person mentioned “It was too expensive because you need a lot of material to make small tubes, but at the end of the conversation said “the machines are not that expensive, you can find a cheaper material. Your main cost is actually LEDs, the thing with photobioreactor is you need to prevent biofouling or contamination.”

From another conversion, it was mentioned when considering cost of it depends on the quality of plastic that you have. The higher the quality the more expensive it is. The reason you need high quality plastic is because photobioreactors need to have a pump. The pump helps move around algae cells so they all of them can get adequate light. The pump puts a lot of pressure on the reactor material, so it need to withstand the pressure to be a good material.

If you have bad plastic qualities and sometimes you can make scratches. Sometimes algae or bacteria can be stuck there creating contamination. Contamination kills your yield. If you take glass or other materials you need to be aware of how it reflects light, since it would lower the amount of light that your algae receives.

To generalize, a good material for a photobioreactors needs to be able to let light in your reactor without reflecting it. The material should be able to withstand the pressure from the pump. The material needs be solid enough that you don’t scratch it when cleaning the photobioreactor.

Cost Factor 2: Operation Expenditure of LED Lights

Multiple people I have talked to mentioned your (operational) biggest cost is LED lights. Here are some ways I’m thinking of going around it.

You can have the top of your indoor algae farms use glass/plastic/other material that has a high light transmission. This allows you to use the sun as a source of light with LEDs support. This would reduce your cost of electricity from LEDs significantly.
You can use solar panels energy to generate electricity during the day. This would some upfront cost, but for the future you have free energy. Depending on season and where you are located you would have somewhere around 8-12 hour (if you discount places like Iceland) of sunlight. If you get enough solar panels to create all of the energy required for LED lights then you can power your LEDs for 8-12 hours a day for free. Plants need somewhere between 12-16 hours of light for optimal growth (and the rest of the time is dark). This can save you 50% to 100% of your cost operational cost using LEDs and you pay the rest with your normal grid provider.
You can gene edit the algae reduce the amount of light that the plant needs. Still need to find what specific parts of algae you would edit.

Cost Factor 3: Operational Cost of Pumps

The pumps are what help move around algae culture to make sure all of them have adequate lighting to grow. The pump is operating all of the time (maybe not during dark hours). It was mentioned to me that the pumps are a big cost factor. For optimizing pumps here is what I’m thinking about.

You can use solar panels energy to generate electricity during the day. This would some upfront cost, but for the future you have free energy. Depending on season and where you are located you would have somewhere around 8-12 hour (if you discount places like Iceland) of sunlight. If you get enough solar panels to create all of the energy required for pumps, then you can power your pumps for 8-12 hours a day for free. Plants need somewhere between 12-16 hours of light for optimal growth (and the rest of the time is dark). This can save you 50% to 100% of your cost operational cost using pumps and you pay the rest with your normal grid provider.
Buy a high efficiency pump. This hypothesis comes from the air conditioning industry. The average efficiency of air conditioners sold today is less than half of what is typically available on the shelves – and one third of best available technology. The reason people don’t buy an efficient air conditioner is because the capital cost is higher than lower efficiently air conditioners, but they don’t take into account the operational expenditure overtime. It is possible a similar problem exists in algae. People in the algae industry are optimizing for the lowest upfront cost when growing algae.
Could talk to people that makes pumps and understand those cost factors to make a new pump to decrease cost.

Advantage of photobioreactors (PBRs)

PBRs (indoor operation) advantages over raceway ponds (outdoor operation) include little or no contamination (by other algae, grazers, infections), no water evaporation or CO2 losses, temperature control, higher biomass densities, lower harvesting costs, and higher productivities. The only reason someone would buy a raceway pond because it has a cheaper upfront cost, creating the cheapest cost of algae.

For contamination (which is the reason 1/3 of algae is thrown out), photobioreactors can become contaminated, unless they can be operated as clean-culture, even bacteria-free (axenic) systems. You can only get a clean culture by cleaning the bioreactor after each algae growth, which takes about 14 days from start to finish.

PBRs are generally oriented vertically to dilute the intensity of sunlight received by the cultures and achieve higher productivities by reducing light saturation and photoinhibition. For horizontal closed-packed small-scale tubular PBRs and ponds there was no difference in productivity in side-by-side experiments. This suggests that a good photobioreactor needs to be vertically oriented.

For vertical PBRs versus ponds, limited comparative data shows that increases in productivity are typically less than a factor of two, but the additional PBR area needed to achieve higher productivities is greater than two-fold. Since the costs of PBRs are much larger than the cost of land, this is not cost effective. This means that you need to decrease PBR upfront cost for it to be viable relative to raceway ponds

Photobioreactor Design

One person mentioned they currently use tubular photobioreactors but they will use biofilm (when they scale).

Tubular photobioreactors can transmits light at high efficiencies usually high quality plastic. They have sun at the top of greenhouse and LED light on the side. Which would be a good way to decrease electricity cost of LEDs.

They will use a biofilm which is a mixer that helps all algae cell get exposed to adequate light for growth. The reason for the change from PBRs to biofilm because they want to increase the diameter so you can increase yield for their anaerobic digestion (method of decomposition of sewage or other organic waste). In this case, they are using algae. In anaerobic digestion, the larger your diameter the more yield that you get. They switched to biofilm because if you tried to change the diameter for photobioreactors then you decrease the average light exposure for each individual cell limiting the growth.

Since my use case for algae isn’t as an input to anaerobic digestion, I’m trying to optimize its growth. He mentioned that it is easier to reach max optical density (growth rate), harvest faster, grow algae faster with thin tubes instead of 1 large one.

Another person mentioned that bacteria/contamination is inevitable, what you need to do is constantly check your reactors 2 to 3 times per day to see if there are any signs on contamination. You would do this by using the opening that is used for harvesting and take out a small set of algae to be viewed on the microscope to know if contamination is happening. When algae is contaminated or stressed it is usually stuck together, whereas when they are healthy they are separated. There are 2 types of contamination: bacteria and predator problem. The ph problem requires a change in pH to kill harmful bacteria. If you have a predator problem, it means that a phytoplankton grew which quickly kills your algae.

My thinking is contamination is a very preventable problem (no matter the type), you just need to catch it very early so your algae doesn’t die. You would do this through monitoring sensor that measures if algae cells are getting stuck together or if they are separated. Technology for this likely exists. This is an extrapolation from axiom cold and other cold thermal storage companies, which work with grocery stores and they use sensor to detect any failures in the system. Obviously not the same use case, but similar enough to show it is within the realm of possibility. To be able to test if your system for preventing disease works well you would test in scenarios where algae has a decent probability of death.

Open Raceway Problems

Problem 1: Seasonal Variability

Nature or the current climate has a massive effect on the productivities of raceway ponds. The sun light throughout the year is variable making your yield also variable, since you don’t have another light source. With the increase in greenhouse gases, temperature are reaching more extreme ends causing either too much heat or too little heat. The rain can change the pH of your raceway ponds. Other organisms can get into your raceway ponds causing contamination. These are fundamental problems where you have a limited capacity to change it since you have an open system.

Problem 2: Contamination

A common thing that I have seen as I talk to people when they talk about contamination for open ponds is they commonly brushed over/they don’t expand much on the point. From my understanding, this is the biggest problem with open raceway. I found that 1/3 of algae is thrown away because of contamination. One person mentioned used open raceway with an extremophile (an organism that thrives in extreme environments) like spirulina to prevent contamination. Spirulina reduces contamination because it can grow at high ph (over 10.5+ out of 14), to put it into context normal pH for plants is around 7 to 8. The high pH kills off many organisms that would normally cause contamination. It does not completely negate, but does a decent enough job for the use case raceway ponds, but contamination is still within the realm of possibility.

Different Variables to Optimize

Below are the variables to consider and my current answers for each variable.

Indoor vs Outdoor Operation — I am choosing an indoor operation because you can control conditions which increase your yield output for area and you can control contamination in indoor, but not outdoor operations. Contamination is important because it is the reason 1/3 of algae production goes bad.
Species + strain of algae — 90%+ of the world’s algae farming uses Spirulina or Chlorella meaning there are more papers/companies that understand how to optimize their growth.
Medium — Choosing wastewater. The reason for this is algae is effective at cleaning wastewater so you can get paid for cleaning it and it provides adequate nutrients for algae growth. The incentive for governments to do this is they can get the same standard with cheaper cost (since we will charge them less).
Nutrient source (fertilizer) — Comes from wastewater
CO2 Source — For an indoor algae operation you can work with manufactures. They have a smoke stack with flue gas. You can can connect the smoke stack and photobioreactor tubes so the flue gas goes in your tubes. Get it from flue gas made by manufactures. The incentive for manufactures in Canada (as of April 1, 2022) is they have a $50/ton carbon tax. For the carbon capture service we can charge them less than the carbon tax and it makes sense for them.
Cost of Land — When working with manufacturers to be connected to flue gas you would need to be close to the manufacturing facility. Since the manufacture already owns the land, we don’t have to buy land.
Light source — With indoor operations the most expensive operational expenditure is LED lights. The simplest solution is at the top of the building where you hold your photobioreactor you have glass that let’s sunlight through so you can decrease your cost of electricity from LEDs.
Temperature — temperature controller, should be relatively cheap
pH — Ph controller, should be relatively cheap
Mixing machine — Peristaltic pump (don’t have high confidence yet because I have limited info, should be relatively cheap
Drying — Gap in my understanding about current process + costs. This is a key driver of algae cost
Harvesting— Gap in my understanding about current process + costs. This is a key driver of algae cost

My Current Gaps in Understanding I Need to Figure Out

Need to understand process drying and dewatering of Algae and its key cost drivers.

Important Variables and Performance Indicators of Chlorella Vulgaris

Mon, 10 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT

TLDR:

Identified needle moving variables for Algae growth and optimal inputs
1. Medium — Wastewater
2. Choosing and Indoor (instead of an outdoor) operation
3. Photobioreactor using Vertical Tubular photobioreactor
4. Light — white LED lights with a light intensity of less than 20 mol m−2 day−1, 12 h:12 h light and dark period.
5. Temperature — 25 to 30°C
6. Mixing, Aeration, and Flowrate — Peristaltic pump at speed of 100RPM for a mixing time below 17.5s, and an aeration rate of 0.05vm
7. pH — most papers suggesting between 7.0 and 8.0
Identified key performance indicators: Biomass, lipid, protein, and optical density (growth rate).

Medium — Decided to Use Wastewater

Normally Chlorella Vulgaris requires freshwater to grow. Based on some of the research papers below wastewater of pretty much any type seems to be a functional medium. The benefit of having wastewater as a medium is companies and governments pay for wastewater to be cleaned. Instead, they can give us the culture medium for free and pay money for it to be cleaned by algae.

The algal pond could remove pollutants, especially N and P, more efficiently compared to the conventional activated sewage process (Zhou et al., 2014). C. Vulgaris, achieved a nitrogen reduction percentage of 100% in wastewater, under high light supply conditions (Gonçalves et al., 2014).

For cleaning wastewater. The study showed 80% TN (total nitrogen) removal efficiency. This coincides with a study reported by Iasimone et al. (2018). Affected by C. Vulgaris, 94% TP (total phosphorus) removal efficiency was recorded at the end of the cultivation period.

Chemical oxygen demand (COD) is the amount of oxygen needed to oxidize (take away electrons from) the organic matter present in the water — seems like taking away the electrons is how you clean the water. COD removal was recorded at the exponential growth phase of C. Vulgaris with 72.24% removal efficiency.

Previous studies have shown that Chlorella can grow and produce biomass in wastewater such as urban wastewater (Tercero et al., 2014), domestic wastewater (Aziz and Ng, 1992), textile wastewater (Chu et al., 2009), piggery wastewater (Ji et al., 2012), etc. This study showed that cultivating Chlorella with membrane-treated distillery wastewater MTDW was also a feasible strategy. Biogas slurry (another form of waste) can also be used. Seems like any type of waste works out well with Chlorella.

Biomass productivity of Chlorella in different wastewaters ranged from 0.029 g L−1 d−1 to 0.64 g L−1 d−1. In contrast, 0.04 g L−1 d−1 biomass productivity of Chlorella cultured in MTDW is not high, indicating that the use of MTDW to cultivate Chlorella to produce biomass still has much room for improvement.

Conclusions: Wastewater seems to be an effective method of cultivating Chlorella. Chlorella seems to be effective at cleaning wastewater — according to the metrics above. You can get paid by companies/governments to clean wastewater + you don’t need to pay anything for the medium which is good.

The question I need to answer is: Is it better than water treatment plants in terms of cost, time to clean, and effectiveness (how clean it is?)

Outdoor vs Indoor Operation.

The reason you want indoor instead of outdoor is you produce higher yields, reduce your chance of contamination (which could kill your algae), avoid variable temperatures (too much or too little heat could decrease growth rate), that the light frequency is on the spectrum of 400 to 700nm (having 1 specific color of light can optimize growth. The clear downside is indoor operations cost more.

Note: This seems to be a consensus among papers I have read.

The way I think about cost is that it is very similar to vertical farming and traditional agriculture. Vertical farming has better yield, less land used, less water used, no need for pesticides because the environment is controlled, etc. The main downside of vertical farming was it cost more. Even if it isn’t cheaper right now they are fairly new (the oldest came in 2012). Tech always decreases cost over time.

Type of Photobioreactor (PBR)

Why you would want to use PBR?

My main idea: Traditional agriculture vs vertical farming. On a yield per space, you are doing much better. If you get costs down then indoor wins. Running on the assumption the cost of photobioreactors can be decreased similar to how vertical farming companies figured it out.

Types of PBRs — Review Paper

Tubular, Plastic Bag, Column airlift, and flat-panel airlift reactors are recommended for large-scale operations.
Lower photosynthetic efficiencies were obtained with the horizontal tubular photobioreactor and the raceway pond.
High photosynthetic efficiencies were obtained in Vertical Tubular and flat panels.

Light

Photon Flux Densities (light intensity) — The photosynthetic photon flux density is the amount of photosynthetically active photons (400–700nm) hitting a surface per unit area per unit time. Measured in μmol m−2 s−1 or some similar measurement.

Effect of photon flux density on photosynthetic efficiency — Photosynthetic efficiency is the efficiency at which solar light energy is captured as stored chemical energy in biomass and it allows the estimation of the productivity for other locations if the photon flux density is known.

The photosynthetic efficiency of plants is directly linked to their ability to convert atmospheric carbon dioxide energy in the form of sugar in a process referred to as carbon fixation.

Status Quo of light — Sun and fluorescent light. The problem with the sun is you are reliant on good weather to grow algae, which is not optimal for algae growth. You could have rainy days, super hot (will why in temperature section) negatively affecting growth or not having consistent algae output due to input being variable. When you compare fluorescent light to LED lights turns out LEDs have a smaller size, are lighter weight, last longer, are more efficient in terms of longer operating life, and the amount of light given off is much higher compared to their power consumption

What are the best-LED lights?

Chlorella Vulgaris (the type of algae that seems to have the highest capture potential. Has two types of chlorophyll: chlorophyll-a and chlorophyll-b (best for Biodiesel growth). Chlorophyll-b primarily absorbs blue light which has wavelengths from 400 nm to 450 nm, and chlorophyll-a absorbs red light which has wavelengths from 650 nm to 700 nm. Using blue and red LED light created 60% more biodiesel compared to broad-spectrum LEDs (white).

White LED Light seems to be the best performing and another this paper, white light seems to create the highest biomass.

What is the best light intensity?

Maximal photosynthetic efficiencies were obtained for the three closed photobioreactors below 20 mol m−2 day−1. This was in a pilot-scale operation.

Light and Dark Periods — In Chlorella Vulgaris, higher biomass production were achieved under 12 h:12 h light and dark period

When grown under more than 17h of light, the plants of greenhouse fruiting vegetable crops usually become damaged, showing signs of leaf chlorosis (reduce chlorella), reduced photosynthesis, and ultimately, a reduction in yield (Hao et al., 2018). It has been hypothesized that this photo-injury is controlled by circadian rhythms through an integrated temperature and light signaling pathway in the plant.

Temperature

There are different strains of Chlorella Vulgaris — curious how much they move the needle.

Paper 1 suggests 25–28°C

Paper 2 suggests 25 to 30°C

Paper 3 suggests 25 to 30°C

Paper 4 suggests 25°C.

The more stable culture temperatures in the closed photobioreactors could have contributed to the higher photosynthetic efficiencies.

Mixing and Aeration and Flowrate

Based on this review paper — a peristaltic pump would be what is used for a larger scale. A Peristaltic Pump puts pressure inside your system (photobioreactor) to move the algae around without causing damage to the cells. The reason you need a pump is to make sure all of the algae gets exposed to the light source. Without the pump, only part of the algae grows.

In this paper, 100RPM seems to be performing better than 120RPM. It seems that 350 is the max that has been identified before you start damaging the algae cells. Probably wanna keep at a lower RPM to save power. Lower mixed time of bubbling in PBR is correlated with higher biomass production. Lipid and biomass have an inverse relationship. When biomass increases, lipids decrease.

Three identical bubbling PBRs with the flow rates of 2.7 L/min, 1.3 L/min, and 0.2 L/min were used to investigate the effects of flowrate on biomass production and lipid yield. The bubbling PBR with the highest flow rate (2.7L/min) produced the highest biomass yield (16 × 106 cells/mL), whereas the PBR with the flow rate of 0.2 L/min was not successful to produce biomass.

It may be due to the higher flow rate providing better mixing effects in the bubbling PBR, which not only prevents microalgae settling but also absorbs more light energy for photosynthesis to have higher biomass productivity.

Another way that Aeration (or flowrate is measured)

1.0 volume per minute (vvm) — VVM stands for volume of air (in culture) per unit volume of growth medium per minute, it is calculated by dividing measured airflow rate (units: L/m, using a rotameter) with the volume (L) of growth medium (including cultured cells). In this paper, an aeration rate of 0.05 vim produced the maximum biomass productivity (268.1 mg/L/d) and protein productivity (155.4 mg/L/d).

Applied Dilution

It is how much culture you are adding. For example, using a volume of 300 ml a dilution rate of 0.1 means that 30 ml of media is added to the culture per increment of time (per hour or per day)

The highest dilution rates in the flat panel photobioreactor (0.4 day−1) and open raceway pond (0.24 day−1) were only applied for a short period, 6 and 11 days, respectively, as these resulted in a strong decrease in biomass concentration.

So high dilution is not the way

The highest photosynthetic efficiencies were obtained with the vertical photobioreactors with intermediate dilution rates; 0.2 day−1 for VT and 0.3 day−1 for Flat panel.

Size of Glass

The system with the shortest optical path (0.02 m), the flat panel photobioreactor, resulted in the overall highest average areal (biomass) productivity. The overall lowest average areal productivity was obtained with the open raceway pond, because of the long optical path (0.2 m).

We need to have smaller distances for the glass to minimize the optical path.

Vertical Tubular vs Horizontal Tubular photobioreactors

In vertical photobioreactors, microalgal cells dissipate less of the absorbed light energy as a result of lower photon flux densities because of light dilution on the reactor surface in comparison to the horizontal systems.

Less light energy is lost in vertical vs horizontal.

Vertical photobioreactors have higher yields than horizontal photobioreactors because of the hydrodynamics, the amount of gas in dispersion, and their gas-liquid mass transfer characteristics (pH, pCO2, pO2). The vertical reactor’s upright orientation allows gas to be introduced at the bottom of the reactor and travel to the top.

The short optical path of the flat panel photobioreactor results in the small dark zone in the culture; respiration takes place in a small part of the culture. The long optical path in the open raceway pond results in a large dark zone in the culture. [11–13].

Limiting the chance for respiration or night time limits the loss of lipids and biomass. The energy that could have been used for growth is used to create o2 which is not the use of CO2 we want.

Higher photon flux densities will penetrate deeper into the culture and will decrease the size of the dark zone present in the culture.

Variations in areal productivity were larger for all photon flux densities and dilution rates in the flat panel photobioreactor and the open raceway pond than in the tubular systems. The large variations in the flat panel photobioreactor are a result of the plug flow regime moving the culture through each panel. The culture is not mixed well overall panels, while in the other systems the entire culture volume is mixed resulting in less variation in areal productivity.

We would probably want to use a tubular system (vertical) to decrease variation, even though flat panel bioreactors have a higher upside with a higher variation.

In the open raceway pond, the large variation in areal productivity is the result of low culture temperatures and automated level control. The low culture temperatures resulted in suboptimal conditions during a large part of the day, for many days throughout the experimental period. The automated level control in the open raceway pond resulted in negative areal productivity; for days with heavy rainfall, dilution rates were higher than intended because of the automated level control. Raceway ponds are not that great.

PH

Most microalgal species grow best at a pH range between 7.0 and 8.4 [64], [65],

Under all light intensities the ph increased. Cell Density was highest was the highest at pH 10. The cell density with pH control at 10.0 was 1.32 times higher than that that of initial pH at 10.0pH

[Optimal rate](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21090111/#:~:text=Using HCl and NaOH regulated,of Chlorella vulgaris was 7.0.) for a waste type culture — 7.0 + if you want to optimize for lipid generation.

Most microalgae species have a favorite pH range of 8.2–8.7, although they can also be cultivated in the pH range between 7 and 9 [81].

Optimal growth occurred when the pH of the medium was adjusted to values of 7.5 and 8.0.

What I would need to test: How pH creates the difference in specifically wastewater. Honestly inclined for 7 to 7.5. Since it is within the general range of plants that I’m aware of of. Probably need to have this as a controlled temperature

Effect of Nutrients — 3 Essential Ones for Biomass Production

Carbon, nitrogen, phosphours. microalgae assimilate sufficient nitrogen and phosphorus from medium for their metabolic activities. Seems to require similar nutrients to most plants.

Nitrogen, is the main component of algal proteins and enzymes catalyst, and are responsible for microalgae growth, photosynthesis and metabolism (Kong et al., 2021).

Phosphorus is another key element for microalgae growth and other cellular activities (energy transfer and biosynthesis of nucleic acids) (Kong et al., 2021).

Main Outcomes (KPIs)

Biomass Production

Biomass production is the most significant indicator to observe when research into CO2 bio-sequestration by microalgae cultivation — high sinking capacity = increased biomass.

Lipid Production

It has been widely accepted that the production of these lipids serves as energy storage to microalgae cells. Through the process of trans esterification, the Triacylglycerol (TAG) found in adipose tissue serves as the major energy storage form in higher eukaryotes (algae being one of them). TAGs can be easily converted into fatty acid methyl esters which are an important and versatile form of biodiesel and the cornerstone for its production.

Protein Production

The species Chlorella vulgaris — 51–58% protein of dry wegth

In fact, there can be as much as six times the amount of the amino acid arginine than that found in whey protein, and almost the same amount of glutamine. Algae protein is on par if not better than whey proteins

It also doesn’t require land used for agriculture since you would operate this indoors where you control all of the variables.

Algae exhibits rapid biomass production containing high oil contents, at least 15 to 20 times higher than land based oleaginous crops.

Optical Density — How Growth Rate is Measured

In general, we grow to our full adult size via an increase in the number — not the size — of our cells. This is the same in cells in plants, the more cells the more cells the more plant growth.

Below is an image of an LB medium. One on the left is a fresh LB medium and the one on the right is the same medium after shaking it overnight in a 37 degree incubator.

The one on the left is clear while the one of the right is cloudily. As bacteria/cells grow it makes the medium more cloudy. The cloudiness is called optical density. The higher the optical density the more cells that are created — more growth. Ideas from this video.

Algae CO2 Capture Mechanism

Wed, 05 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT

TLDR:

The enzyme ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase (RuBisCO)takes the CO2 coming into the plant and activates a reaction with to ribulose bisphosphate (RuBP) to start the Calvin Cycle (second stage of photosynthesis).
Algae capture CO2 through photosynthesis. The explanation below is based on resources and found a similarly high-level explanation on Khan Academy.

High-Level Definition

Photo — refers to light

synthesis — the process of building compounds from simple substances — in this case, the process of making sugars — glucose — for plants.

Essentially plants are taking light and creating their food (glucose) to help grow and strengthen the plant.

How Plants Get Their Colour and Store Energy:

Based on this paper (+ the ones cited within it) it seems that red light is the best for maximizing the creation of biomass + protein. More biomass = more carbon need = more carbon captured.

More protein = more stuff to sell.

Light Dependent Reactions (Photosystem ll)

Inside the chlorophyll (what absorbs light energy) there is a chloroplast, which is where photosynthesis happens.

P is pigment and 680 refers to 680 Nano-meters — the wave length of light that this photosystem absorbs best.

When Photosystem 2 (PSII) —named #2 because it was discovered second— receives the photons from the light energy from the sun (which can be replaced by red LED lights). To activate the PSII and PSI the energy needs to be within red light (625-740 nano-meters) because that is the light that produces the most biomass and protein which are the 2 main products that chlorella Vulgaris produces.

Energy levels than those represented by red light are sometimes insufficient to activate the electrons to start the process of photosynthesis — leading to slower growth and less protein biomass, and less carbon captured.

The light transfers through the pigment molecules until it reaches the reaction center, then it activates the electron — which later transfers to Photosystem II (explained later). When photosystem II loses its electron, P680 turns into P680+ —known as the strongest oxidizing agent in biology. An oxidizing agent refers to removing from an atom or molecule. In this case, the molecule being oxidized is water (H2O). This results in the water losing one electron and ending with 1/2 an O2 (the same as 1 oxygen) and 2H+ (which refers to 2 hydrogens with 1 less electron — which was the one lost to P680+.

Once this electron is in PSII it goes into two special chlorophyll molecules in the reaction center that have the electron interact with the light energy. This creates the excited electron which then goes into the primary electron accepter which acts as a place holder. As the electron leaves the primary electron acceptor. Then P680 turns into P680+ and then you get low energy electrons from the water bonds like described above.

In the image below you can see the electron transport chain (ETC) from PSII to PSI. You can see the transport chain of the electron from plastoquinone (Pq) to cytochrome complex (CYT) to plastocyanin (Pc). Throughout the ETC energy is lost. That lost energy takes the H+ ions in the stroma (outside layer) to the Thylakoid lumen (inside layer).

Light Dependent Reactions (Photosystem ll and Photosystem l)

Once the electron goes PSI, it is in a state of low energy. Like PSII, it uses the light energy to activate the electron.

P700 is oxidized (loses the electron) and sends a high-energy electron to the ferredoxin (fd) which are proteins that mediate electron transfer to the NADP+ reductase, an enzyme that reduces both the NADP+ and H+ ions— meaning NADP+ reductase provides both of ions with an electron, creating NADPH which is then used to make ATP.

Creating ATP (Adenosine triphosphate)

ATP is the principal molecule for storing and transferring energy in cells. It is often referred to as the energy currency of the cell and can be compared to storing money in a bank.

Initially, there is a buildup of hydrogen ions that are moving from the stroma to the thylakoid lumen plus the ones produced by splitting water (to create the electron for PSII) accumulate in the thylakoid lumen. The ions build up energy because of diffusion and because they all have the same electrical charge, repelling each other.

To release this energy, hydrogen ions will rush through any opening, similar to water jetting through a hole in a dam. The energy released by the hydrogen ion stream allows ATP synthase to attach a third phosphate group to ADP, which forms a molecule of ATP. The flow of hydrogen ions through ATP synthase is called chemiosmosis because the ions move from an area of high to an area of low concentration through a semi-permeable structure.

In the thylakoid lumen, that opening is a passage through a specialized protein channel called the ATP synthase. The ATP synthase is a mitochondrial enzyme localized in the inner membrane which is responsible for the activation of the reaction to create ATP from ADP and phosphate.

Light Independent Reactions (Calvin Cycle)

After the energy from the sun is converted into chemical energy and temporarily stored in ATP and NADPH molecules, the cell has the fuel needed to build carbohydrate (sugar) molecules for long-term energy storage. The products of the light-dependent reactions, ATP and NADPH, have lifespans in the range of millionths of seconds, whereas the products of the light-independent reactions (carbohydrates and other forms of reduced carbon) can survive for hundreds of millions of years.

In plants, carbon dioxide (CO2) enters the leaves through stomata (plural of stoma) and reaches the mesophyll cells. Once in the mesophyll cells, CO2 diffuses into the stroma of the chloroplast—the site of light-independent reactions of photosynthesis. These reactions are called the Calvin cycles — named after the man who discovered it: Dr. Melvin Calvin.

For algae, peak growth is reached within 14 days, which is why it captures more carbon than other plants. For perennials, including most bushes and trees, take about two years to mature, which have a much lower capacity.

Generally there are 3 stages of the Calvin cycle: fixation, reduction, and regeneration.

High Level of all 3 stages

In stage 1, the enzyme RuBisCO incorporates carbon dioxide into an organic molecule, 3-PGA. In stage 2, the organic molecule is reduced using electrons supplied by NADPH. In stage 3, RuBP, the molecule that starts the cycle, is regenerated so that the cycle can continue. Only one carbon dioxide molecule is incorporated at a time, so the cycle must be completed three times to produce a single three-carbon GA3P molecule, and six times to produce a six-carbon glucose molecule

Stage 1: Fixation

In the stroma, in addition to CO2, two other components are present to initiate the light-independent reactions: an enzyme called ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase (RuBisCO) which includes 5 carbon atoms, and three molecules of ribulose bisphosphate (RuBP). RuBisCO catalyzes a reaction between CO2 and RuBP.

For each CO2 molecule that reacts with one RuBP, two molecules of another compound (3-PGA) form. 3-PGA has three carbons and one phosphate. Each turn of the cycle involves only one RuBP and one carbon dioxide and forms two molecules of 3-PGA. The number of carbon atoms remains the same, as the atoms move to form new bonds during the reactions (3 atoms from 3CO2 + 15 atoms from 3RuBP = 18 atoms in 3 atoms of 3-PGA). This process is called carbon fixation because CO2 is “fixed” from an inorganic form into organic molecules. When carbon is fixated it turned into a form that can be used by plants.

Stage 2: Reduction

ATP and NADPH are used to convert the six molecules of 3-PGA into six molecules of a chemical called glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate (G3P). That is a reduction reaction because it involves the gain of electrons by 3-PGA. Recall that a reduction in the gain of an electron by an atom or molecule. Six molecules of both ATP and NADPH are used. For ATP, energy is released with the loss of the terminal phosphate atom, converting it into ADP; for NADPH, both energy and a hydrogen atom are lost, converting it into NADP+. Both of these molecules return to the nearby light-dependent reactions to be reused and reenergized.

Stage 3: Regeneration

Interestingly, at this point, only one of the G3P molecules leaves the Calvin cycle and is sent to the cytoplasm to contribute to the formation of other compounds needed by the plant. Because the G3P exported from the chloroplast has three carbon atoms, it takes three “turns” of the Calvin cycle to fix enough net carbon to export one G3P. But each turn makes two G3Ps, thus three turns make six G3Ps. One is exported while the remaining five G3P molecules remain in the cycle and are used to regenerate RuBP (since it requires 5 carbon atoms), which enables the system to prepare for more CO2 to be fixed. Three more molecules of ATP are used in these regeneration reactions.

2021 Annual Review

Tue, 04 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT

We are Making Progress

I genuinely believe with all my heart the most important 4 words in the English Language is “We are making progress.” The reason I believe that is I have come across many people that have described that they feel stagnant, falling into old habits of watching Netflix (for 20 hours a week), getting distracted.

Something I have found over time, this leads to people diminishing the times they do make progress because they feel it is so insignificant. What most people don’t realize is they put so much judgment on themselves to do work. “I’m not being productive enough.” What does being productive actually mean? What is the standard? What is the metric you are using to measure productivity? I’m often met with silence. People want to strive to be productive, to do amazing things in the world, but people don’t know what they are aiming for. They don’t know what success looks like. University is the north star for many people, but they don’t clearly define how that translates into what they care about doing.

Now whenever I hear about even the slightest progress, I positively reinforce by saying “We are making progress.” The word “we” is intentionally used to make it sound like a group, even if I didn’t do anything about what they are working on. This leads to the other person associating a social reward with making progress. Making progress = you feel better about yourself. It becomes a self-reinforcing cycle to make more progress, becoming your main variable for individual success.

What are you going to do different?

When I asked people about their biggest challenges in life, it could be anything, work, relationships, health, fitness, etc. An interesting observation was most people know what their problems are and the next time we would talk they would mention a similar problem. It looks like that the initial problem was never fixed. Every time someone has a realization or an insight, I always ask “What are you gonna do differently.” This question is bounded by the belief that if you continue doing the same actions you will get the same results. This suggests if you do something different then you would get different results and this leads to hypothesis-based thinking.

Little snippets

The Only Belief That Matters — If I put time and effort into something I will l get better over time. If you did not believe this then why do anything because you can’t improve. When you conceptualize that your life is just a system of cause and effect you can’t ever be the victim because you are usually the cause of the success and failure you have.

Humans are adaptation machines — Our survival was based on our ability to adapt to our environment. In the same sense, if you have a goal you can adapt yourself to be the person with the skills to execute on the goal. You do this with Identity statements (next section)

Identity Statements — identity is how you view yourself when you are by yourself. If you believe you are capable, then you will be no matter the circumstances. If you believe you are not capable, you will never start trying (the only belief that matter isn’t there). Even if you are you are not capable yet (yet is a very important word because you imply that you can do it in the future) you can put in the time and effort to build the skills needed to hit your goal. How you make yourself believe anything about yourself is telling a narrative. I’m the type of person that [insert what you want to be true about yourself]. Here are the stories I tell myself daily.

I’m the type of person who does the thing even when it gets boring or hard — the reason I for specifying boring or hard is that is when you are most likely to quit. If you think about flow state, you only get in flow if the work is slightly higher than your current knowledge. If it is too hard, you don’t think you can do it when it is boring, that means it is too easy (so why do the same thing you already know?). I have drilled this narrative into myself for the past 9 months and I can safely say I don’t even perceive something as hard or boring. I just do. If I don’t know something that I find out how to learn it, if there are pre-requisites then I go learn that knowledge first.
I’m the type of person who does what I said I would do — this is a more recent one I have adopted. This is linked with time blocking in your calendar (talked about in the next section). When I put it in my calendar I will spend 1 hour working on X task. It doesn’t matter how much I get done. My goal is to sit there for 1 hour without getting distracted — going through Instagram DMs, watching Netflix, checking Twitter. Now I have prided myself on me not getting distracted and spending the time input for the work, not the outcome. Over time this reinforces the idea that when I say I will work, I should be working without distraction. Overtime if you work without distraction you are bound to do more work

Identity statements as they become part of who you are rewire your brain to receive the reward when you act in alignment with them.

How to Have Better Time Management

I know many people who use a to-do list and something I constantly see is “I’m not feeling productive.” If you measure your life by how many boxes you check off you are making a big mistake because I have never met anybody who finishes everything on their to-do list and people still use this technique. From the perspective of identity, you are at a point where you don’t always do what you said you would do (completing the tasks on the to-do list).

Here is why time blocks what you want to be doing. Time blocking is allocating a certain amount of time (ex. 1 hour) to a task. When you would time block, you would want to fill up your day. It does not need to be all work, you should schedule a time to eat, hang out with friends, watch Netflix. When you are measuring success in your time block it should be am I doing what I said I would do. Did I spend 1 hour doing X task? Assuming you can work for 1 hour and not be distracted, now you can tell yourself the story I’m the type of person who does what I said I would do. According to Nir Eyal, a behavioral science researcher, and New York Best-selling author, the literature shows that when people measure themselves on their ability to simply work without distraction, whatever it is that they do, get more done than the people who keep the to-do lists.

Positive Reinforcement/rewiring reward system of yourself

Positive reinforcement is celebrating behavior you want yourself or others to continue. If you congratulate someone on how fast they do something, then you are planting a seed that suggests that everything should be done fast. Over time as you plant more of the same seed of behavior you want to see, the more the other person’s brain gets rewired to receive a positive reward (dopamine) every time they act out the behavior that gets the praise. Very powerful for positively influencing people in behavior that would make their life better.

Pattern Interrupt

For those of you who have negative thoughts about yourself and can’t get them out of your head. “Not good enough” or “I feel like an imposter” or “Don’t know if I can do it.” Here is an effective way to handle it. In cognitive-behavioral therapy, there is something called a pattern interrupt. When you have a negative, you interrupt the pattern of thought (which means you need to be aware of the negative thought in the first place). Replace it with what you with a better message “I’m the type of person that {insert behavior}.” Over time you start catching the negative thought faster to the point where every single time you are thinking a negative thought you just pull out your identity statement.

Power of Neutral thinking

If positive thinking does not work for you (in the pattern interrupt section) then neutral thinking might be your thing. According to research from Christine Porath showed saying something out loud makes it 10 times more powerful than if you just kept it in your head. If you are ever doubting yourself, you don’t need to be positive, you just shouldn’t say it out loud.

Some Story Examples of why you shouldn’t say negative stuff out loud

Exhibit A: Billy Buckner, a player for the Boston Red Sox where he made a mistake in sports that would be one of the biggest sports bloopers in history. In 1986 he let the game-winning runs score on a ground ball through his legs that ultimately would give the Mets the world series. An interview resurfaced of him 12 days before that game and he said you know the dreams are to win you know to win the World Series. It would be a nightmare would be for me to let the game-winning run score on a ground ball through my legs you know and then ultimately that’s exactly what would happen.

Exhibit B: Pete Maravich, was interviewed at 26 years old and he said you know I don’t want to play 10 years of pro basketball and died at the age of 40 of a heart attack well he played 10 years of pro basketball in Pasadena California died of a heart attack at 40

Exhibit C: In 1973 a guy was hired to fix a refrigerated boxcar in the back of a train. He goes into the train he panics gets himself locked inside the boxcar so now he’s pounding on the door, there’s nothing to do he starts to panic and thinks he’s gonna freeze to death.

He finds a pen he starts writing down what’s going through his mind and he writes down “I’m becoming colder” as isn’t going well we observe a report still colder now he writes “nothing to do but wait half asleep I could hardly write, these may be my last words.”

They opened up the boxcar many hours later and they find him he’s dead but the temperature inside the boxcar was 56 degrees °F (13°C) the freezing apparatus was broken there was plenty of air in the boxcar there was no physical reason for his death. The best the doctors could say is he somehow talked himself into dying.

A Different Way to Perceive Failure

We all get that failure is an opportunity to learn. We say the thing, but our actions don’t exactly align with it. To put failure into a different perspective, for you to succeed at doing anything, say you are making rocket ships or making a basketball hoop where you never miss, you need to how to do it. If you are trying to do something you have not done before it’s pretty hard to know how to do something on. For you to know how to do something you need more information, you can read books, talk to people, and you can also fail. Failing is the most information-rich data stream there is. When you fail, the problem is easily identified because it is right in front of you, the problem is personalized to your actions, and what to improve for next time is usually clear. Failure is going to hurt no doubt about that. When I spent 5 weeks looking into biochar (the longest project I have worked on) all to end up invalidating it. I was frustrated for 20 mins and then I moved on. I identified the new information so I don’t make the same mistakes with the new project (algae).

Why I was a hypocrite

For a good 9 months of last year, I prided myself on being a problem solver. In the last year, I got an opportunity to work on consulting challenges (through a human accelerator called TKS) where I got the chance to work with Acadium (multi-million dollar tech company), United Nations, Benchsci ($44.6M raised). The issue was outside of that I never really worked on solving any problems. In the past couple of months, I have changed that and I am working on a problem: Climate Change

What is my understanding of Climate and My Thesis

High level: climate change is bad. Why? Droughts, floods, wildfires ware. The world goal is to get to net-zero by 2050, if you were to look at all the industries that emit you probably need somewhere around 5–30 solutions/companies that correctly solve the problem and can scale (which most aren’t doing). Producing another 10 to 15 Elons that are willing to work on these problems I think is very unlikely — most will end up coming from The Knowledge Society (TKS) if it does happen.

Even if we got to net-zero by 2050, one thing that is glanced upon is that CO2 lasts in the atmosphere for 300 to 1000 years so whatever negative effects are still happening right now they are still likely to continue. With CO2 being 70 to 80% of the problem, it leads me to believe that the solution is carbon capture. If I get this right I just create 80% of the impact with 20% of the effort (80/20 rule) which is what I think we should be optimizing for.

Carbon capture is broken down into 2 general categories: Reduction capture and Direct Air Capture.

The reduction includes pre and post-combustion carbon capture which removes about 90 to 95% of CO2 from flue gas. In the best case, if deployed on all oil and gas plants they will reduce CO2 emissions by 5.8%.

Direct Air Capture is directly capturing CO2 from the air. Getting this technology right is what I think can get us to net zero + reverse problems with climate in the next 20 to 30 years.

The important Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for climate companies (based on where most are going wrong).

1. Cost Per Machine (with its capture capacity) — This is one that I think often gets overlooked. Carbon Engineering (leading direct air capture company). 1 carbon capture plant is $500M with a capture capacity of 1M tons of CO2. If you were to scale enough to capture all of the world’s CO2 (38B tons) you would need 19 trillion dollars to do that. To put that into context if you take the 100 richest people in the entire world and take their entire net worth they would contribute less than 25% of that cost.

2. Cost Per Ton of CO2 capture — The best that I have seen so far is $48.55 per ton of CO2 from Carbfix. To capture all of the world’s CO2 you need about $1.845 trillion, about 40% of the network of the 100 richest people. What most people miss is this is a yearly reoccurring cost, draining any money you have as a company.

3. Energy — In Direct Air Capture you need to capture air (with a Co2 concentration of 0.04%), then separate the air and CO2. Usually using a solid sorbent or liquid solvent. For example, Climeworks, need 2000kwh to capture 1 ton of CO2. To capture all of the world’s CO2 they need more than 3 times the world’s energy consumption.

4. How they monetize/business model — with high cost for machine and capturing tons of CO2, you need a way to monetize the CO2 to offset your cost or make a profit. There are different methods that companies use.

Carbfix and Climeworks put the CO2 in the ground and turned it into stone — which to my knowledge doesn’t make them any money.

Carbon Engineering uses enhanced oil recovery. Which is putting CO2 into the ground, this helps extract oil that was initially too deep reach. Oil, once burned can release more carbon than was captured.

Twelve. co — they take CO2 and turn them into products. Twelve makes products for Tide, Mercedes, NASA, and more.

Carbon Cure, Carbon Upcycling — create concrete additives with waste from manufacturing, decreasing the amount of cement construction companies use while making the concrete stronger.

In my opinion, it makes the most sense to capture carbon then make a useful product with it.

Side note: Something that I have seen with carbon capture companies in the fewer numbers and metrics they have on their website the less developed they are. If they don’t mention their cost per ton, cost per machine, how much energy they use, and business model isn’t obvious from looking at their website, then they still have some work to do.

My General Hypotheses on Solutions for Climate

Mass grow a plant to capture carbon (looking into Chlorella Vulgaris — a species of algae now)
Create a material/device (not large machines, smaller ones like twelve.co ) that replicate photosynthesis to capture carbon — then make the carbon useful by making products like graphene and carbon fiber.

What have I done/doing to make a climate solution?

Project 1: Looked into biochar (charcoal). In week 5 found that it can only reduce emissions not directly captured from the air. Even though, I could’ve used biochar as a construction material for homes, for roads, use it to filter water, use it to increase plant yield. I realized all of that did not matter unless it captured a lot of CO2. Learning 1 was to prioritize the capture mechanism. The reason it took me till week 5 is that pretty much all the papers I read said it sequesters carbon, but none of them explained how. I did eventually find it, the week I looked for it (in week 5). Learning 2 was talking to more researchers to validate your understanding. In the 5 weeks, I talked to 0 researchers. Even though I probably had a decent enough understanding to not be an idiot by week 1 or 2.

Project 2: Looking into Algae since it has the highest capture potential out of any plants, more specifically looking into Chlorella Vulgaris which has the highest capture potential out of algae plants. In week 1, prioritized finding how it captures carbon. Spent week 1 looking into photosynthesis. Now finishing up week 2, where I identified all of the main variables in the growth of algae (which means more CO2 capture) — CO2 concentration, culture medium, photobioreactor design, photon flux density, pH, temperature, Aeration, light intensity — and how to create optimal growth — measured by optical density, biomass, protein, and lipid production. In week 3, I would want to talk to researchers to validate my understanding of variables and how to make them optimal.

What I learned About Problem Solving with Consulting Challenges

Here is what I learned about identifying and solving problems from working with Acadium (multi-million dollar tech company), the United Nations, and Benchsci ($44.6M raised). I will mostly be referring to the UN challenge since it you were trying to solve a world problem, not doing marketing or operational work (like with Acadium and Benchsci)

1. Problem Needs to be specific, quantifiable, and geographically bound

The general mission statement for the UN challenge was “Increase the number of women and girls in the IT industry.” Where most people go wrong is they try to solve the problem for the entire world. The solution will be different in the U.S when compared to India. Being geographically bound refers to picking a location. The reason why this is valuable is imagined you were starting a pilot for your solution. If you solved it for the entire world, where would you start? The direction isn’t clear. With a geographically bound problem statement, you have direction on where to initially deploy your solution.

Quantifiable refers to the impact of this problem (with a number). This could be done with the number of people affected, how much money is lost.

Specific, usually written with the number you quantified to explain what is the outcome of the problem.

Our problem statement for this challenge was. In Vietnam (geographically bound), 96% (quantified) of students are unprepared to enter the digital economy (specific — the outcome of the problem).

**How we picked Vietnam
**Before you start working on understanding the problem/solving it does the magic book exercise. The question is what has to be true for this project work. First thing was to identify which country to work in. For this, we needed criteria of what a good country looks like. The country needed to have a low poverty rate (<15%), have electricity (90%+), have reasonable political stability (have 0.00 on the index-linked), low employment of women in IT (<10%).

Poverty and electricity to asses that they have the basics for living. If they don’t then their priorities don’t align with what we are trying to create (more women and girls in the IT industry).

Political stability, kinda tough to create any change if your country doesn’t allow for outside support/is fighting through civil war or a dictatorship regime.

Low employment of women, suggests that there is clear room for improvement. If it was 43% women in IT, you almost have a cap on how much improvement you can have.

We went through all the countries in the world and ended up with 14 different countries that fit the criteria. Looking back I don’t think it would’ve mattered what country we picked, we would have had similar success with this project. We picked Vietnam off of a teammate’s intuition.

**2. Magic Book Exercise (Thanks Harrison)
**Imagine you had a magic book that you could give you an answer to any question, what would you ask it? (In the context of Vietnam). The question was about what do we need to know about Vietnam to make this work.

We broke it down into categories of Access (who mobile, computer, internet, etc.), culture (gender landscape, values, religion, cultural norms), Country breakdown (Age, employment, economic sectors), education (literacy rates, school completion, what their education looks like), finances (average income, % with banking institutions, employment by gender), Geography (how different regions are classified), Government (political system, policies, parties in charge), current solutions for IT initiatives. Based on what we found over the next couple of days, we went into hypothesis based thinking

3. Hypothesis based thinking

Hypothesis-based thinking. If you have a question that you don’t have the answer to, you need a hypothesis. The hypothesis provides you with a starting point. If your hypothesis is correct then you continue iterating on it. If your hypothesis is wrong then based on the new information that you got you have the direction to continue. Your biggest hindrance in solving a problem is your lack of action to get the unknown information in the first place. Also, you could have a hypothesis based on very limited to no information, the reason you want to guess even if you know nothing because it requires you to think, and as you find out more information you find out what was wrong with your thinking process to make it better for the next time you have a hypothesis.

When working on the UN challenge where the goal was to increase the number of women and girls in the IT industry. Since none of us (the team) were from Vietnam, we had close to 0 contexts in the country. My team focused on the education of kids from 14 to 18 years old. We just started listing out potential problems that students would face under the 3 categories of lack of education and knowledge in the digital field, lack of device access, lack of time. You can see our entire mind map here. Even though the entire thing was full of assumptions, it provided us with direction on what to ask students when we talked to them. In a day we completely removed the lack of time because according to the students they had hours per day to be on Facebook so that wasn’t the problem.

Under the umbrella of lack of education and knowledge, the breakdown was mostly about lack of digital literacy from teachers and kids not speaking which turned out to be correct. Which is a problem we solved in our solution. Another hypothesis for problems was Vietnamese students could not read English well, which is important for understanding coding syntax which turned out to be false. We also said that their education does not teach anything relevant skills to get coding jobs, which turned out to be true. The most advanced thing they learned was scratch a preliminary visual block-based platform used for creating animations but is not practical in the programming industry.

Under the umbrella of lack of devices, we had low internet which was wrong. Over 90% of people in Vietnam had internet. We said it could that it was “not appropriate” for girls to use tech, we were wrong. Schools did not provide devices to teach them that were fit for coding, which was correct. These were the computers they were using.

All to say we had tons of hypotheses to test, which gave us direction of where to look. When we talk to students we would find out whether we were right or wrong. Helping us identify the problems faster than if we were just doing “research.”

From talking to the students we understood that over 90% of the people were interested in learning how to code, they just didn’t know how in both rural and urban communities. We also found that they were being taught old, non-applicable content. We also found that teachers in public schools are interested in learning new things to give their students better education, they just need a manual or a learning guide. So guess what our solution was. An education program that taught teachers the basics of programming so they could teach it to other kids. (Obviously there is more to it, this is just high level.)

TLDR: Having hypotheses on the potential problems helped us know the real problems when we talked to people, which is quicker and more effective than just doing “research.”

**4. How to Manage Teams — Playbook
**When identifying and solving problems, it is helpful having teammates that you can bounce ideas off of. 1 big problem I have found is people don’t usually have a project manager or the manager isn’t very good at creating clarity for tasks, structure for meetings, having people hit deadlines, and avoiding bad performance. The playbook link above is mostly from experience and partly me theorizing on the potential to help optimize the team.

How To Have Better Conversations

One thing that people tell me often is “you ask good questions” or “I really like the way you ask questions.” I would attribute my ability to 2 things: curiosity and improvement.

For curiosity, I really interested in learning about you as a person. What are the experiences you have gone through (good or bad)? What ideas do you have that I don’t? Just always been found to out those things whenever I talk to somebody new.

For improving thinking, it might be something that isn’t obvious, but how you ask questions is reflective of your ability to think. When you ask a question you are typically looking for an answer. The better your ability to think, the clear of an outcome you are looking for, the better directed your questions are.

Here is my model to help structure better questions.

1. Stop Asking Binary Questions

From listening to hundreds of hours of podcasts I noticed a very common mistake that most people do (thanks Nadeem pointing out this one to me). People always ask binary questions.

For example, in an episode with Ester Perel (leading psychotherapist on couples counseling) and Tim Ferriss asked “Does trust or vulnerability come first?” First time has an assumption of what trust meant, which Ester Perel somewhat pointed out later there are different theories on trust. By the way, he phrased the question he limited the potential output of the guest because she can say 1 of the 2 options.

If he asked “What is trust” to have a definition good enough for conversation and then said, “How does trust happen.” The question is open-ended without any restrictions on the guest and now you can find out what you don’t know, you don’t know.

A potential outcome could have been similar to when Marie Forleo interviewed Bernie Brown (who spent over 20 years trying to understand shame and vulnerability — and by association trust). Bernie Brown created her model for trust called B.RA.V.I.N.G.

BOUNDARIES: Setting boundaries is making clear what’s okay and what’s not okay, and why.

RELIABILITY: You do what you say you’ll do. At work, this means staying aware of your competencies and limitations so you don’t overpromise and can deliver on commitments and balance competing priorities. ACCOUNTABILITY: You own your mistakes, apologize, and make amends. VAULT: You don’t share information or experiences that are not yours to share. I need to know that my confidence is kept and that you’re not sharing with me any information about other people that should be confidential.

INTEGRITY: Choosing courage over comfort; choosing what’s right over what’s fun, fast, or easy; and practicing your values, not just professing them.

NONJUDGMENT: I can ask for what I need, and you can ask for what you need. We can talk about how we feel without judgment.

GENEROSITY: Extending the most generous interpretation to the intentions, words, and actions of others.

Even if you don’t agree with every single point, now you just got exposed to new information that was very unlikely to be found unless you asked an open-end question.

2. Exclusively Ask “What” and “How” and Avoid Why

Chris Voss (Ex. Lead FBI hostage negotiator) describes negotiating as gathering information. When you are in a conversation your goal is to avoid high-level conversation and start building a relationship. This starts by asking calibrated questions

These are questions that start with “What” and “How.” Chris avoids Why, Can, Is, Are, Do, Does (any first word that creates binary thinking) Questions.

When you ask “What” and “How” questions they are usually prompt more elaboration on the other person’s side. The obvious exception is “How are You?” The problem with this question is most people have a scripted answer: Good. Which doesn’t exactly get you anywhere. When you ask “What was on your mind” or “How are you thinking about approaching this problem?” You don’t have a 1-word answer for that. When you phrase your questions this way you get an insight into their thinking and how they process information, and their thinking patterns. Again when you are asking your questions are meant to be optimized for what you don’t know you don’t know.

On the other side if you look at Why, Can, Is, Are, Do, Does Questions. They usually prompt 1-word answers.

Can you do this? No.

Is that the reason you became excited? Probably.

Can get this done by Sunday? No.

Do you like soccer? Yes.

Does it make sense to take this decision? Nope.

Even though these questions have their place when you are just trying to coordinate between people and create certainty that something will happen like a deadline and specific thing for each task or some logistics for hanging out.

These questions are not the best ways to gather information about other people. You could ask “Don’t you think that Person A is a total jerk?” vs “What do you think of person A?”

The first encouraged a 1-word answer and you are implying what you think is the right answer by your question. The second didn’t try to influence your opinion. It just asking for your thoughts.

The one that I conveniently left out is “Why”. “Why did you include the word “Why” in bad questions starters.” Yes, asking “Why” prompts the person to provide you information similar to “What” and “How” questions. The issue is no matter what language that you speak asking “Why” puts other people in a slightly defensive, they have to defend their perspective or idea to you. It creates them vs you situation and it is really hard to build rapport.

What you can do to replace Why is asking “What is the reason.” You go from “Why are you doing this” to “What is the reason that you are doing this?” Note: you need to have an out of curiosity tone because you are trying to understand their perspective rather than try and question their ideas/abilities. You want to avoid people being defensive when you are trying to build a relationship.

3. Questions I like to Ask in Conversations

Question 1: What is in your mind? A 2010 study showed that we always have something on our minds. We are using energy to reduce our mental capacity. It is hard to have a half-decent conversation when people are thinking about something else.

When you ask this “What’s on your mind” you do 3 things:

You help others release their cognition drainer.
You create a natural segue into a conversation
You avoid high-level topics like weather, what their pet was up to today, etc.

Question 2: What’s the real challenge here for you? The word “real” implies that the challenge has to have a significant impact. The word “challenge” is asking for what is blocking progress. According to a 1997 study, the words “for you” limit the person being asked to just problems for themselves. Not high-level abstract problems that have nothing to do with them. When following up it seems people tend to have an answer for the cause and solution of the problem. This leads me to believe that most people don’t spend enough time thinking about problems they have to fix it.

Side benefit: you sometimes are the person who “solves” your problem.

Question 3: What was most useful for you? Humans on average forgot 70% of new knowledge in 24 hours. Learning that lasts long term happens as a result of trying to remember the information. Asking this question creates 2 things

Prompts the other person to think about something useful promoting longer retention of information.
Gives you feedback on ideas/ways of communication that are most effective for people.

Assumption: The conversation was useful for the other person in some way.

Question 4: And What Else? This question can be applied to all 3 above and practically anything else. “And what else is on your mind?” or “And what else is the real challenge for you?” or “And what else was most useful for you?” And what else makes the other person think of more possibilities. Which allows for a larger range of possible conversations. Without you having to come with conversation topics.

How to Make Better Action Items

Common learnings/action items I see “Question everything” or “Ask better questions” or “Be more disciplined”

RE: Question everything — are you really going to question how a microwave works? think about how your shoes are made, why couches have their shape? Of course, I’m taking it out of context what is more important questioning everything makes no sense. The direction for what you should actually do isn’t clear.

RE: Ask better questions — When you ask “How do you ask better questions” most people don’t have an answer. Again direction of what to actually do isn’t clear

RE: Be more disciplined — How? no clear direction.

My rule of thumb: Can you check the box of your action item? It works. It doesn’t ask “How do I act on [insert high-level action item like ask better questions]”

Big Questions To Answer

1. What game are you playing?

The game you are playing refers to what you are optimizing for. You could be optimizing for thrill, good relationships, helping your community, making a world impact, being happy, making money, etc. The game that I am playing is moving the needle on climate (50+% of emissions removed)

2. What does success look like in this game?

Success is the metric that lets you know you are making progress. For me, this is how many tons of CO2 I have captured which at the very moment is 0 (a lot of progress to be made).

3. Are you playing a game that you want to win?

The point behind this question is sometimes people optimize to win at games that don’t care too much. The game could be I want a more expensive home than my co-workers, have better pictures on Instagram, or have more followers on Twitter. Now if you have a more expensive home are fulfilled? If the answer is yes, then do your thing. If it is not, play a different game that you care about.

4. What is your driver to get to the success?

What is your why or how do you know that you won’t quit? The goal of this question is to identify if this is something that you are good with doing for the next 5+ years. It doesn’t mean you have, you just shouldn’t dread the possibility of that being true. For why my goal is to capture all of the world’s carbon. This is for 2 reasons:

I’m the type of person who does the thing even when it gets boring or hard. At this point, I don’t have a conception of boring, hard, or anything else meaning I can work on whatever I want for as long as I want. Why Climate and not any other problem? it’s a hard problem to solve and I have an inclination towards it (nothing more).
My worst-case scenario is not bad. My real worst-case scenario isn’t living on the streets. It is probably working at some startup. That’s it. I already know enough people that could give me a job if I asked for it. Because I have pretty much no downside, might as well try to push my limits.

Understanding Potential

What I’ve realized is that kids are full of potential and ideas about what they could be. Kids wanna be astronauts, solve cancer (because Grandma is having a tough time fighting it), want to be trillionaires (because no one has done it before). They grow up and work in a cubical working a government job. The issue isn’t the job they have, but it is about the potential that was not harnessed well.

In physics, there is potential energy and kinetic energy. Potential energy is all the stored energy within you — let’s call it potential — kinetic energy is how much of the stored energy turns into real movement or motion — how much you execute on your potential.

This leads me to believe that teenagers and younger have very high potential because they have a lot of energy to do something. As they grow older, their potential decreases and it turns into executed potential. The problem is most people don’t execute very much on their potential.

Question for you: How much potential are you executing on? How can you execute more?

Create the Habits that Create action to get the results

The problem with new years resolutions is the goals are super general. Then you have no plan on how to do it. People have the goal of “Get More Fit.” How do you quantify that? What is the metric that you are looking at? You can’t improve what you don’t measure. People are thinking if I just sign up for the gym it will all work out. Just so you know 80% of January gym-joiners quit within five months. It does not seem to be working.

Most people are too focused on results that they never think about how they are going to achieve that result. For you to achieve the results you take the habits which lead to action, leading to results. In gym example, you would first want to time block it, signaling to yourself that nothing else is allowed to take him the gym block. All you need to do is show up and keep repeating to yourself I’m the type of person that does that I said I would do. Now when you show up to the gym 1 day per week like you said you would. You would enforce associate with going to the gym (the thing you said you would do) with a positive reward. Now it becomes normal behavior to go to the gym. Once you build that habit, over time you will get fitter over time (assuming you have good nutrition too).

Improving Your Life by Removing

Most people associate improving their life by doing more things. Another possible to remove what you shouldn’t be doing. If you look at athletes it is about what they are not willing to do, what they are willing not to eat, what they are willing not to consume (content-wise).

Question for you: What is 1 thing that you should not do to make your life better?

Fun vs Enjoyment

Over the last year, I felt like whenever I do “work” on consulting challenges or working on climate projects. I never had any fun, I always went off of the idea that work or reading a research paper isn’t fun (but I also didn’t hate it). Video games are fun because you enjoy them. Then I realized what I have been doing wrong. Raph Koster (big game designer) defines fun as “the act of mastering a problem mentally.” Fun is when you are in a focused state trying to learn or understand a problem.

The process of reading papers and writing memos on what I learned that week wasn’t enjoyable because that isn’t the purpose. The purpose is to learn, understand, then apply.

When you are watching Netflix you are enjoying your time because there isn’t much effort going to consume. When you are trying to make sense of papers (you don’t have the pre-requisite knowledge for) you are in a focused state that requires effort. Fun just describes the different mode of thinking you are in.

Getting yourself to do stuff that is uncomfortable

Now that is winter in Canada, whenever you try to take a cold shower, it is extra cold. As I was watching an Andrew Huberman podcast, he suggested something interesting for cold showers. “When you get in say Andrew Huberman said it was good from me.” The funny thing is it worked, it made me less jumpy in cold showers. My hypothesis for why this happened was because I kept repeating the words over and over where I started to focus on the world and less on the cold water sensation.

You can extrapolate this through the lens of doing anything that makes you uncomfortable where you could say “I’m the type of person who does uncomfortable things.” You keep repeating so it becomes part of your identity. Just putting the narrative in your head that doing uncomfortable things is normal changes how you act.

Why I Care so much about Thinking

Was talking to Ian, I asked him a question about sales and after he gave me the answer, I was like “That was so obvious how did not figure that out.” He told me “Your current figure it out mode runs on 2 or 3 [mental] models and if they don’t work you just ask Ian.” (not kidding Ian is like my google of how the world works).

From that day I started collecting models of how to think from different people a ton of the content above isn’t me, it is information I have found in the books I read and podcasts I listen to.

Mental models learned from People

“If it doesn’t change what you do, don’t ask it.” Of course, you can have curiosity questions, but be intentional about asking them. Very action-oriented approach. If 80% to 90% of questions you asked were action-oriented your trajectory changes a lot. Thanks Ian
Optimize for short-term action on new information. The short-term action breeds long-term results once you do it on a long enough time scale. Don’t ask questions that help you in 5 years, ask ones that would help you now because you will forget it in 5 years. Thanks Navid
Inversion as a thinking model. Sometimes you don’t have others around you to challenge your assumptions. For each question, you have to use the inverse to add more perspective to your thoughts. Some time ago I saw the founder of Snapchat is now getting on the board of KKR (a big private equity firm) and I was like “Why is Evan on the board? then Ian replied Why wouldn’t X person join the board? Then the answer becomes obvious he has money to give them, he gains influence by having access to KKR’s decision-making. Whenever you are thinking from 1 perspective, think about how the opposite can be true. It makes you less attached to your own opinion because of your awareness of the opposite. Thanks Ian
Hypothesis-based thinking. If you have a question that you don’t have the answer to, you need a hypothesis. The hypothesis provides you with a starting point. If your hypothesis is correct then you continue iterating on it. If your hypothesis is wrong then based on the new information that you got you to have direction to continue. Your biggest hindrance is your lack of action to get the unknown information in the first place. Also, you could have a hypothesis based on very limited to no information, the reason you want to guess even if you know nothing because it requires you to think, and as you find out more information you find out what was wrong with your thinking process to make it better for the next time you have a hypothesis. From Nadeem + Andrew
Scope down. While I was working on biochar (capture carbon and increase plant yield). What Michael had me do was pick a specific plant (I picked corn) then I created a geographical boundary in Iowa. That took me from “I don’t know how to deploy this biochar thing” to “I know which organizations and farmers I need to talk to.” If biochar did work out, then it would have been so helpful for deploying biochar because I have already done the validation that they want it. Thanks Michael.
“What do I need to know to make this work?” This question had been a break of all the different components for the project which gave me a good general outline of what to look for in research/talking to people (biochar mindmap). Thanks Brandon + Andrew

Most Needle Moving Things I learned About Myself

I’m low neurotic — I pretty much don’t worry about stuff. I’m so free from self-judgment. If I don’t do something today, it will happen tomorrow. My lack of stress about pretty much anything is what I attribute to any success I have ever had or will have. It is what allows me to go hard on a time crunch. I don’t perceive failure for the most part. I don’t care about the barriers in the way. I will go through it, under it, around, above. All I know is if I fail, I don’t have an issue with it. My not worrying free from pretty much any problem.

When Biochar Works and When it Does Not

Tue, 14 Dec 2021 00:00:00 GMT

Below is a simple explanation of the last 20 years of biochar research based on this review paper (which includes many of the top biochar researchers) .

Different Inputs for Biochar + Comparison

Biochar has a ton of feedstock — A wide range of biochar types produced from feedstocks including woody residues, crop straw, animal manures, sewage sludge, and food wastes.

A review of 5400 studies (Ippolito et al., 2020) found that wood-based feedstocks generally produced biochar with the highest surface area.

Straw-based feedstocks gave the highest cation exchange capacity (CEC). High CEC means you have a higher negative charge, which allows water along with its nutrients to have a strong bond with soil (specifically clay and organic matter). This helps increase plant yield.

Manure feedstocks produced biochars with the highest N (nitrogen) and P (phosphorus) content. The highest content does not mean that plants use it efficiently

Temperature Comparison

Normal Temperature is about 350°C to over 750°C

HTTP (or temperatures) above 500°C produced biochars that were more persistent in soil, with higher ash contents and pHs.

Biochar pH ranges from 4.6 to 9.3. Above 500°C would probably create a pH of 8+ which we don’t since it negatively affects nutrient availability.

In this case, we want to optimize for biochar with a pH of 6.5 to 7.0

Benefits of Biochar

Reviews and meta-analyses show that biochar generally lowers soil acidity This means it increases pH — so optimal for soil that has higher acidity 6.5pH and below.

Biochar increases buffering capacity. Buffer capacity quantifies the resistance of a solution to changes in pH after the addition of OH- or H+. Making pH less likely to change after biochar is added/already changed the pH

Increases dissolved and total organic C. Higher soil organic carbon promotes soil structure or tilth meaning there is greater physical stability. This improves soil aeration (oxygen in the soil) and water drainage and retention and reduces the risk of erosion and nutrient leaching.

Increases cation exchange capacity (CEC). Cation, atom, or group of atoms that bears a positive electric charge. CEC measures are the soil’s ability to hold cations by electrical attraction. The five most abundant exchangeable cations in the soil are calcium (Ca++ ), magnesium (Mg++), potassium (K+), sodium (Na+) and aluminum (Al+++) — which are helpful for plant growth. The higher your charge increases the number of nutrients held by soil, increasing available ions for plants.

Increased Available nutrients and water retention. Nutrients are found in water in ions form and biochar holds water 5 to 7x its weight so it keeps more water instead of it evaporating from the soil.

Increased Aggregate stability. The smaller pieces of sand, silt, and clay have been mixed with OM to form larger structures called aggregates. Soil aggregate stability refers to the soil’s ability to not break down in the event of stresses (ex. wind and water erosion).

Reduces bulk density. Bulk density is an indicator of soil compaction. Soil compaction occurs when soil particles are pressed together, reducing pore space between them. When you reduce pore space, there is less area for plants/roots to grow — impacting yield. High bulk density is an indicator of soil compaction.

Increase microbial activity. As plants rely on soil microorganisms to mineralize (break down) organic nutrients for growth and development. Mineralize means to break down compounds. The seems to be similar to water breaking down nutrients and compounds into Ions.

They increase nitrogen uptake, increase plant growth, and support faster initial growth of plant roots without any synthetic fertilizers needed (Ingham 1985).
They found a drastic 50% reduction in the need for NPK fertilizers in plots that were inoculated with the microbes (Thilagar 2016). — Interesting
Because it naturally does fertilizers do you don’t need them as much if at all anymore — biochar enables that.

Accelerate nutrient cycling. A nutrient cycle is a repeated pathway of a particular nutrient or element from the environment through one or more organisms and back to the environment. Examples include the carbon cycle, the nitrogen cycle, and the phosphorus cycle. The faster the cycles happen the faster it gets to plants. The faster it gets to plants the more photosynthesis cycles that can happen (because the nutrients are available) the faster a plant can create its food, leading to faster growth.

Reduce leaching. Leaching in agriculture is the removal of a solute (nutrients) from a porous solid (soil) using a liquid solvent (water). That solvent is excess water coming through rainfall or irrigation. Reducing leaching means reducing the number of available nutrients disappearing. The more nutrients the more plant growth.

Immediately after heavy rain, much of the air (ideal air is 25% of soil) is forced out and replaced with water. Gravity, evaporation, and plants will reduce the level of water, which is then replaced with air. Losing out on available soil nutrients that the plant needs.
Assumption: because of cohesion when the water level evens out it will be below where it needs to be to connect to roots to provide nutrients (due to gravity) and the water that will evaporate will move the water upwards away from the root. Reducing the available nutrients for the plant.

Reduce volatilization of nitrogen. Volatile means the compound/nutrient evaporates at room temperatures, which also happen to be around the range of ideal temperature for plant growth. Volatilization is the loss of N through the conversion of ammonium to ammonia gas. Nitrate and nitrite are both anions with a negative charge and are quickly leached through the soil. Ammonium is a cation, and its positive charge helps it stick to negatively charged clay and OM, slowing down the leaching process (compared with anions).

Increases rate seed germination. Germination rate = seeds grown/seeds planted. Higher germination = more plants in the process of growth. Increasing potential for yield. Seeds normally take 1–3 weeks to germinate, germination is usually the growth of a plant contained within a seed; it results in the formation of the seedling.

Increase flowering. Flowering refers to plant reproduction

Increase resistance to disease — Needle Mover. Generally, it’s estimated that various pests (insects, weeds, nematodes, animals, diseases) each year cause crop yield losses of 20–40%. More precisely, some data maintains that crop diseases cause average yield losses of 42% for the most important food crops.

Acclimation to abiotic stressors. Acclimatization here simply means the adaptation of plantlets to a new environment. Abiotic stresses include as low or high temperature, deficient or excessive water, high salinity, heavy metals, and ultraviolet radiation, are hostile to plant growth and development, leading to great crop yield penalties worldwide.

Many studies report that biochar increases plant productivity, with an average yield increase of 10%–42% (Table 1), although negative effects have also been recorded (Jeffery et al., 2017; Macdonald et al., 2014; Ye et al., 2020).

Average yield increase comes from everything that improves plant nutrition and the mitigation of the negative things.

Studies reporting positive responses have commonly used biochar application rates of 5–20 Mg ha−1 (Table 1); however, applications of biochar–fertilizer mixes at low rates (<1 Mg ha−1 biochar) have also increased yields,

5–20Mg per hectare is what they used in the studies is super small scale. This metanalysis shows for wide-scale biochar they see anything from 2tons per hectare to 60 tons per hectare of biochar.

Stage 1: Short-term (1–3 weeks) reactions of biochar

Chemical effects

After application to soil, water entering biochar pores dissolves soluble organic and mineral compounds on biochar outer and inner surfaces.

This is how biochar reduces leaching by having it solve on the surfaces of biochar providing a negative electric charge to attract ions so they don’t get leached.

The soluble compounds mentioned above when dissolved increase dissolved organic carbon (DOC), cations, and anions in the soil solution (Silber et al., 2010), which increases the electrical conductivity and pH.

High CEC means you have a higher negative charge, which allows water along with its nutrients to have a strong bond with soil (specifically clay and organic matter). This helps increase plant yield. An increase in pH is okay as long as it does not make soil pH above 7.5.

The release of DOC (dissolved organic carbon) and nutrient ions from biochar (Kim et al., 2013) is rapid over the first week and much slower over the following weeks (Mukherjee & Zimmerman, 2013).

This suggests that biochar has a strong start capacity, but then plateaus in the future. CEC (cations exchange capacity) is low from 50 to 200 mmol kg−1. Normal soil samples are 13.5 cmol/kg-1. CEC increases over time as more functional groups form on biochar surfaces.

Low-temperature biochar (HTT — highest treatment temperature < 450°C) and biochar produced in facilities with incomplete separation of pyrolysis vapors generally have higher contents of water-soluble organic compounds. The more soluble they are in the water the more available nutrients for the plant.

Low-temperature biochar can be hydrophobic initially due to the accumulation of aliphatic compounds in pores and on the surface; such compounds are usually lost during pyrolysis at higher temperatures. Hydrophobicity can inhibit water uptake by biochar particles (Gray et al., 2014), but this effect dissipates over time. Most biochars are usually alkaline — meaning they have a pH of over 7. (HTT >450°C) have relatively lower levels of water-soluble compounds. What is good for a plant is 5.5 to 7.0 pH.

Biochar is a reductant — meaning it gives out electrons to other elements or compounds. Biochar (especially those made at >400°C) can have a high content of free radicals, which can lead to the formation of reactive oxygen species (Pignatello et al., 2017; Ruan et al., 2019; Yu & Kuzyakov, 2021) and strongly accelerate oxidation reactions. This acceleration leads to oxidation not only of biochar itself but also of SOM and plant residues (Du et al., 2020) and is especially intensive in soils with fluctuating water levels (Merino et al., 2020) or with high content of iron (oxyhydr)oxides (Merino et al., 2020; Yu & Kuzyakov, 2021).

Physical Changes

Some studies (e.g., Uslu et al., 2020) that reported negative effects of biochar on germination at very high rates (120 Mg ha−1) applied biochar directly to seeds in a petri dish. Hypothesis: Studies that have negative outcomes for biochar rely on petri dish data when it only makes sense to do it on the field where you have microbes, minerals, organic compounds interact with biochar.

Germination rates were not affected by the addition of BCF at <700 kg ha−1 in pot or field trials, while seedling growth was the same or greater than with NPK fertilizer alone.

At high application rates, biochar with high levels of soluble salts could inhibit germination and seedling growth through osmotic stress. Kochanek et al. (2016) showed that biochars containing karrikins, a class of water-soluble organic molecules associated with plant response to fire, can accelerate germination and early growth of plants

Main takeaway: applying biochar a few weeks in advance of sowing supports seedling growth through the development of a beneficial rhizosphere microbiome.

Physical and chemical reactions in the soil

Stage 2: Medium-term (1–6 months) creation of reactive surfaces on biochar, effects on plant growth and yield from seedling to harvest

The surface area and porosity increase. porosity is the gap between solid particles, which contains water and air.

There is also a fine layer of organic matter with a high concentration of C–O, and C–N functional groups forms around the external and some of the internal pore surfaces of the biochar and BCF. What absorbs cations — positively charged ions.

Biochar pores may become filled with organic matter and minerals, protecting organic matter from microbial decomposition (Pignatello et al., 2017) and reducing the availability of nutrients.

Microagglomerates that form on internal and external biochar surfaces, consisting of nanoparticulate minerals bound with organic molecules, have a significant concentration of –C–O, –C=O, –COOH, or –NH functional groups (Joseph et al., 2010). Recent research indicates that many of the reactions described above related to biochar occur on or in the micro agglomerates. Gases such as NH3, N2O, and CH4 produced through biotic and abiotic reactions of fertilizers in soils and/or through chemical reactions on the surfaces of the biochar can diffuse into the nanopores (<50 nm), where they can react with oxidants and reductants, especially if the pores contain water, which reduces N loss and GHG emissions (Section 4.3; Chiu & Huang, 2020; Quin et al., 2015).

Meta-analyses have shown that biochar increases microbial biomass and activities (Pokharel et al., 2020), particularly in high-N soils (Zhang et al., 2018) and with biochars produced at low temperature from nutrient-rich feedstocks. Biochars, particularly those made at low temperature from crop residues, cause shifts in microbial community composition, increasing the ratios of fungi to bacteria, and gram-positive to gram-negative bacteria (Zhang et al., 2018).

A good resource for understanding the value of Fungi vs Bacteria = Fungi are generally much more efficient at assimilating and storing nutrients than bacteria. One reason for this higher carbon storage by fungi lies in the chemical composition of their cell walls. They are composed of polymers of chitin and melanin, making them very resistant to degradation. Bacterial membranes, in comparison, are phospholipids, which are energy-rich. They degrade easily and quickly and function as a food source for a wide range of microorganisms.

The meta-analysis by Pokharel et al. (2020) identified that biochar increased microbial biomass C and the activities of the enzymes urease by 23%. Urease, an enzyme that catalyzes the hydrolysis of urea, forming ammonia and carbon dioxide. Ammonia (nitrogen ion-helps plants) and CO2 which is required to start the photosynthesis process.

Increases alkaline phosphate activity by 25%. Alkaline phosphatases in plants play a major role in the supply and metabolism of inorganic phosphate for the maintenance of cellular metabolism (Tabaldi et al., 2007; Mishra and Dubey, 2008). One of the most important nutrients to living organisms is Inorganic phosphate (Pi). It is required in ATP formation, kinase/phosphatase signaling and in the synthesis of lipids, carbohydrates, and nucleic acids — I think ATP is the one I know about. I should probably learn about the other things inorganic P creates.

Increases dehydrogenase activity by 20%. Dehydrogenases are enzymes that catalyze reduction reactions through the transfer of hydrogen ions (protons) from the substrate to an acceptor or co-enzyme — this is in the step at the start of the 2nd step of photosynthesis. This increase in enzyme activities, as well as the shift in microbial community diversity and activity (Jaiswal, Elad, et al., 2018), are directly dependent on (i) pH increase after biochar addition, as soil acidity is the main factor regulating the microbial composition

Fungi and bacteria inhabit the larger nutrient-rich pores of biochar (>2 µm) where they mine the nutrients in the biochar and those that have been absorbed from fertilizers. The adsorption of root exudates, microbial metabolites, and microbial neuromas increases SOM levels and thus increases soil organic carbon. In low P soils, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) invade the pores of biochar, especially biochars with high P content on the pore surface, which can increase plant P uptake (Gujre et al., 2020; Solaiman et al., 2019; Vanek & Lehmann, 2015). Blackwell et al. (2015) found that a phosphorus-enhanced BCF increased root colonization to 75% compared with 20% 10 | JOSEPH et al. in mineral fertilizer and unfertilized control and increased P uptake efficiency

Nutrient Responses

Much of the N within the biochar C matrix (e.g., heterocyclic-N) is unavailable to plants (Clough et al., 2013; Torres Rojas et al., 2020), whereas most K in biochar is present in soluble forms, released in the short term after application to soil (Silber et al., 2010), and is readily available to plants. Meta-analyses have found that biochar application commonly increases P availability, particularly when applied to acidic or neutral soils, and for biochar produced from low C: N feedstocks (e.g., manure, crop residues), and produced at low temperatures. Lower temperatures again — manure and crop residues would be a good place to start.

However, P availability can be low in Ca-rich and K-poor feedstocks such as sewage sludge (Buss et al., 2018, 2020; Torres-Rojas et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2019) because pyrolysis can convert plant-available organic P into inorganic P that is less available in the short term (Buss et al., 2020; Rose et al., 2019).

For example, a meta-analysis found that biochar reduces N leaching on average by 26%, though it can increase ammonia volatilization at biochar application rates 40 Mg ha−1 and with biochar pH > 9 (Haider et al., 2020; Liu, Zhang, et al., 2018).

Biochar accelerates the mineralization of organic matter and nutrient cycling, and AMF root colonization, which can increase N and P uptake by plants, as discussed above (Solaiman et al., 2019) and can also improve root growth under water stress (Mickan et al., 2016). Particles on the surface of biochars consisting of carbon-coated minerals are particularly effective in reducing the bioavailability of heavy metals (Kumar & Prasad, 2018). Essential and non-essential heavy metals generally produce common toxic effects on plants, such as low biomass accumulation, chlorosis, inhibition of growth and photosynthesis, altered water balance and nutrient assimilation, and senescence, which ultimately cause plant death.

Effect on disease

Generally, no impact is found at low rates (<2 Mg ha−1), positive impacts are seen at moderate rates (2–20 Mg ha−1), and negative impacts at relatively high rates (>50 Mg ha−1). Rates that are beneficial for plant growth in non-diseased systems can result in disease promotion in pathogen-infected systems (Jaiswal et al., 2015).

Chenopodium quinoa and maize both grew significantly better in biochar treatments, which was attributed to improved plant traits (lower proline content and less negative osmotic potential) rather than to increased root zone water content (Ahmed et al., 2018; Kammann et al., 2011).

Tests with heat stress and biochar in Arabidopsis indicated early micro stresses primed the plants to cope better with subsequent acute heat stress

How Pyrolysis Works

Tue, 30 Nov 2021 00:00:00 GMT

For those of you who are new biochar is a material that can capture carbon and increase plant yield. My goal is to learn about the how biochar is benefitable and how it is produced. This article covers on a high level the process of pyrolysis which is used to make biochar.

TLDR: Process of Pyrolysis

Biomass (input to make biochar) storage and drying. This is where were the moisture (or water levels) are decreased to a certain threshold to enable the most effcient burning
The biomass is transported to the pyrolysis reactor through a bucket feeder
Biomass heated in the Pyrolysis Reactor to remove volatile organic compounds which has been shown cause detrimental effects on leaves, flowering, seed production, protein content, plant metabolism. This is important because we are placing biochar (the output of the pyrolysis process) into plants
Biomass output, in this case biochar is cooled to the temperature of ambient air. When biochar is put into soil at the same temperature it was heated at (300 to 1000°C), you boil the water in the soil into evaporation — water has a 100°C boiling point.

Step 1: Biomass storage and drying

Why Drying is Important?

The reason you can’t have wet biomass is that Wood that is too wet to burn can struggle to catch fire, produce more smoke, release less heat

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) states that firewood with a moisture content within the 15 to 20% moisture range burns the most efficiently on fires. Moisture refers to the amount of water content within a material. Water is made up of two elements, hydrogen, and oxygen. Hydrogen is flammable, but oxygen is not. When both hydrogen and oxygen are combined they have different chemical properties. This is because it is made of hydrogen, which has been fully oxidized and can’t react with oxygen any further (because they are sharing hydrogens’ spare electrons). Remember oxidation means losing electrons. In this case, the oxygen is making the hydrogen lose electrons. This results in a slightly negative pole (for oxygen) and a slightly positive pole (hydrogen).

Good reason to reduce biomass as well. Through a drying process, moisture can be largely removed from biomass. The result is a reduction in the weight of the biomass. This leads to a reduction of the processing costs, as well as of the costs for storage and transport.

Step 2: Transported to the pyrolysis reactor through a bucket feeder

Biomass Storage (Left), Bucket feeder (middle), pyrolysis reactor (right)

The raw biomass is pre-dried inside the bucket feeder through hot and dry air flowing in the opposite direction as the biomass (pink arrows in the image below). This decreases moisture by a few % which helps the pyrolysis process in the later steps occur faster.

Step 3: Biochar Heated in the Pyrolysis Reactor.

In the pyrolysis reactor, there are 4 different stages required to create biochar.

Stage 1: All the Moisture in the biomass has to evaporate to remove Volatile Organic Compounds.

The evaporation happens through a process of destructive distillation, which is when a solid is broken down in a closed system to remove volatile organic compounds (VOC). VOCs are hydrocarbons composed primarily of carbon and hydrogen atoms. Many of these compounds are volatile and can easily vaporize into the atmosphere at room temperature and atmospheric pressure.

VOCs have been shown to cause detrimental effects on leaves, flowering, seed production, protein content, plant metabolism. Since VOCs vaporize at room temperature — around 68 to 77°F (20 to 25°C) and ideal soil temperatures for planting most plants are between 65 to 75 degrees F. (18–24 C.). This suggests that VOC content will evaporate in plants when in soil. When in soil, they dissolve into water. This suggests that when it is room temperature (which is about the ideal temperature for plants) VOC will vaporize and take the water content with them. Drying out the soil, limiting available water for plants

Stage 2: The biomass is degasified

Degasification is a process to remove dissolved gases in liquids. The gases are the VOCs. This stage is when VOC removal is the most efficient. After mixing with humid air from the 1st stage of the pyrolysis reactor the reminder of the gases is can be used for energy (process).

This waste heat (or process heat) created from this stage can power the next batch of biochar or it can reduce the energy required to activate the process.

Stage 3: Carbonization

Dried and degasified biomass (from stages 1 and 2) is treated with high temperatures. The process results in a quick concentration of carbon and the disappearance of the fibrous structure, improving grindability. The Hardgrove Grindability Index (HGI) represents a material’s resistance to being crushed into smaller pieces.

The smaller the HGI, the harder and less grindable the raw material. The higher the grindability the lower the energy requirement, which is correlated to lower cost.

Depending on the temperatures inside the reactor and the duration of the carbonization process the ready material can have a calorific value. Calorific Value is the amount of heat energy present in the material (biochar).

The material has a high calorific value when the heat inside the water vapor in the pyrolysis reactor can be recovered. The material has a low calorific value when the heat inside the water vapor in the pyrolysis reactor can not be recovered. The more heat inside the water vapor we can recover the less energy we need to power our next batch of pyrolysis.

Specific Calorific Values (CV) of the pyrolysis process is between 21 to 29MJ/kg. Materials that have a similar CV to the pyrolysis process. My assumption is they would be effectively broken down into biochar and produce a good amount of heat vapor to power the next batch of pyrolysis. Some of the materials include

PVC — a type of plastic that is not recyclable has 35 MJ/kg CV
Medical waste has a CV of 19 MJ/kg
Due to high carbon and hydrogen contents, the dried food and market waste resulted in a gross calorific value of 23.25 MJ/kg
Dried food and market waste resulted in a gross calorific value of 23.25 MJ/kg
Wood has a Calorific Value of 21.2 to 21.70 (MJ/kg)
Manure has a CV of 19.77 MJ/kg

Note: Normal SI units for CV is J/kg. Mega joules have 1 million times more heat energy than SI units. For Context, The highest CV is 141.80MJ/kg for hydrogen.

Stage 4: The cooling process

The biochar we got from the 3 prior stages was being heated to anywhere from 300 to 1000 degrees. In this stage, the biochar is cooled to the temperature of ambient air. This happens through cool air flowing horizontally as the biochar is passing through. The reason you don’t want high-temperature biochar in soil is that it will increase the heat of the soil. Increased heat increases the speed of water movement until it has too much kinetic energy to stay in liquid form. The water boiling temperature is 100 degrees.

Note: Depending on the type of biomass and the moisture content when put as feedstock this can take from several seconds to more than a dozen seconds. Efficiency is due to the higher temperature in the upper part of the reactor.

Talking to Farming Organizations and Understanding How Biochar Stores Carbon

Fri, 19 Nov 2021 00:00:00 GMT

TLDR

1. When buying products from companies (like Bayer, BASF, and Corteva) like seed and fertilizer they all need to be from the same company

Idea: You need to buy Bayer seed and fertilizer for it to work.
Next step: Talk to big companies supplying products to make sure there are no issues for biochar (good validation for farmers to trust biochar)

2. Main reasons for low yield year: Soil is too dry or too wet

Hypothesis: Biochar solves both problems because biochar can hold water 5 to 7 times its weight.
When there is a substantial amount of biochar being too wet won’t be an issue
When it is dry since biochar holds water until the plants need it, it would be helpful for going through the dry season
Next Step: Talk to biochar research to validate that this is true.

3. Incentives for Farmers

For farmers to adopt a new product over their fields they need to see an increase of 4 to 5 bushels per acre. For context Iowa in the last year had an average yield of 201 bushels per acre. Which is about a 2.5% increase in yield.
Limitations of information: Talked to 1 person who with farmers who isn’t a farmer.
Next Step: Talk to farmers to validate the threshold of yield increase for them to adopt biochar.
The sooner the benefit the better, 50% of the land is rented. Farmers are short-term focused because they need to pay bills.

4. How To Apply Biochar

Farmers need a playbook to know how to apply it. This reduces friction of adoption and more importantly increases the probability of biochar working.
Assumption: There are specific ways to apply biochar to make it effective
Next Step: Talk to researcher to know the best way to apply biochar (how often, how much, what is the max amount of biochar per acre, how spread out across the acre it should be).

5. Why is biochar not being used it

No one has produced it at a significant volume — now early commercialization stage (good timing for me)
Next step: Look into the process of pyrolysis, what machinery you need, the efficiency of biomass to biochar, talk to companies producing biochar to understand how they are approaching + get rough estimate of the cost + how much can be produced.

6. How long does biochar last for?

Generally 1,000 to 10,000. Examples below
Terra Preta, meaning “Black Earth” in Portuguese — at least 7000 years — Rain Forest -(20°C to 25°C) Environment.
Western Vancouver Temperate Rainforest — 9,556 years — Temperate Forest (10 degrees) Environment
Australia Savannahs — 1,300 to 2,600 years — Savannah environment (in between forest and dessert)
German Haplic Luvisol Soils — 2,000 years — Temperate Forest

Info From Conversations

Iowa Corn Association (ICA)

The Iowa Corn Promotion Board (ICPB) — works to develop and defend markets, fund research, and provide education about corn and corn products.
The Iowa Corn Growers Association (ICGA) is a membership (where farmers pay to be in) organization lobbying on agricultural issues on behalf of its 8,000 members.

Email all the main people in the Iowa Corn Growers Association so I can get access to their network of farmers to have a forum so I can ask a lot of them.

Planting Practices

They put fertilizer on the soil every fall (September or so) and planting season starts in April with the latest being June if there is bad weather
When buying products (ex. seeds, fertilizer) from companies you need to use specific products usually you have to buy all products from the same company because all of the R&D tests were done with only the companies’ products. Otherwise, if you mix and match with all companies your yield won’t be good.
Biggest companies: Bayer (bought Monsanto), BASF, Corveta. They have a lot of money they have to make better seeds.
Iowa has good soil because of “The Storm of the Century” in 1993. Where a bunch of their crops destroyed millions of Iowa crop acres. Part of crops burned (which acted as biomass) and made biochar. Now in Iowa their organic matter in soil is 3% to 4% which is good. If you compare to Minnesota which is directly under Iowa and they don’t nearly have as much yield due to limited organic matter in the soil.

Reasons for Low Yield

Too wet — biochar solves this by being able to hold water 5 to 7 times its weight (a hypothesis that needs to be validated).
Too dry — biochar holds enough water for when the soil has adequate water so it can provide water in dry times (a hypothesis that needs to be validated)
Extreme Wind or large solid hail (very uncommon), but badly affected plant yield in 2020. In 2020, the yield was about an average of 178 bushels per acre, and this year it is 201 bushels per acre which is 1,288 pounds (1 bushel = 56 pounds) = extra $7,490 per acre. Iowa has 35.7 million acres = $267.4M extra revenue.

Incentives of farmers

Does this product work/does it increase yield? Companies are constantly making claims that they will help your soil, but is it true? Farmers aren’t sure. If they tried out your product they would try it out on a small field and test it vs what they currently use to see efficacy.
A clear advantage is 4 to 5 bushels per acre (since this is outside rounding error).
Adoption curves — like any product, early adopters set the tone and they spread the word — they are influential.
The sooner the benefit the better, 50% of the land is rented. Short-term focused because they need to pay bills.
How much does it cost? Do I get more yield? Convincing them that it is not going to be detrimental — They are looking at the cost to benefit. The assumption is that it needs to be significantly better than the current fertilizer.

How and when do you apply it?

Farmers need a playbook to know how to apply it. This reduces the friction of adoption and more importantly increases the probability of biochar working since I’m assuming there are specific ways it is meant to be applied to the soil.
Since Phosphorus has very slow movement you need to till (flip 6 to 10 inches of soil so biochar can be at the bottom. Fertilizer has a specific machine that inserts it in soil and biochar can be implemented the same way too.

Why is biochar not happening yet?

No one is producing biochar at any significant volume yet.
No one has priced biochar yet so this is still an early stage of commercial application.
Potential wins for biochar
Since nitrogen is extracted from oil operations and the cost of extracting oil is increasing because they need to dig deeper to Reacher the oil = more energy + more time = higher cost. This goes down to the company selling fertilizer and then goes to the consumer increasing price.

Advantage of Biochar

Biochar has a strong advantage over fertilizers. They can not be washed away by rain. It said if 24 hours of rain has more than half an inch of rain directly in the same location it can start dissolving or washing away (which is not helpful for plants. Rain also washes away nutrients in the soil.
According to some biochars can hold up to 7 times their weight in water, others can hardly hold one time their weight. Note: the process is highly dependent on the type of feedstock + how pyrolysis is done → Question type of feedback + pyrolysis process is required for high water weight.
Implication: The more water you can store, the more nutrients you can store. Making rain days of over half an inch is not an issue. In Iowa, there are about 15 to 25 days of half an inch rainfall in 24 hour

How Long Biochar Can Stay In Soil (with Examples)

Biochar is very stable lasting for 1,000 to 10,000 years

How long does biochar last in the soil for (With Case Studies) based on this video — Dr. David Shearer University of Utah — under different conditions.
Terra Preta, meaning “Black Earth” in Portuguese — at least 7000 years — Rain Forest (20°C to 25°C) Environment.
Image of it (good visual comparison for presentations)
Western Vancouver Temperate Rainforest — 9,556 years — Temperate Forest (10 degrees) Environment
Australia Savannahs — 1,300 to 2,600 years — Savannah environment (in between forest and dessert)
German Haplic Luvisol Soils — 2,000 years — Temperate Forest

How Biochar Helps Plants Grow

Thu, 11 Nov 2021 00:00:00 GMT

💡 TLDR:

Part 1: Photosynthesis and why biochar increases plant yield.

The 2 largest components of biochar is carbon (70 to 80%) and nitrogen is about (18% to 25%).
Nitrogen is about 15% of RuBisCO an enzyme which cause the reaction in the Calvin cycle which is involved in photosynthesis helping plant grow. The more nitrogen you have the higher the concentration in RuBisCO.
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is required for light independent reaction (2nd part of photosynthesis). The CO2 with biochar comes from biochar distributing its carbon in the soil and interacting with water to create a useable form of CO2 that can be used by the plant.

Part 2: Choosing Region

Picked Iowa (they represent about 4% of the world’s food through just corn and 99% of their corn is field corn (1 of the 6 types of corn)
Interesting trend in Central Iowa where 10 out of the 12 counties had more than 2X decrease in yield compared how much arable farm land decreased.

Part 3: Testing if biochar is feasible.

In the scenario where biochar can capture 4.35 tons of CO2 (when we add potassium). To make enough biochar to capture all of the world’s CO2 we would need less than 8.99% of the world’s biomass (used to make biochar) and 7.69% of the world’s farming land to hold the biochar.

Part 1: Understanding How Biochar Nutrients Help Plants

Biochar Break Down

Carbon (70–80%)
Nitrogen ( around 18.9% to 25.9%)
Oxygen
Hydrogen
Sulfur
Magnesium

Carbon and Nitrogen are the needle movers.

How Photosynthesis Works

(Explanation of How Carbon and Nitrogen are important to plant growth is here) — Source

High Level Definition

Photo — refers to light

synthesis — the process of building compounds from simple substances — in this case the process of making sugars for plants.

Stages of Photosynthesis

Light Dependent Reaction

Location: In the chlorophyll there is a section call chloroplast which is where the reactions for plant growth happens.

When Photosystem 2 (PSII) — named #2 because it was discovered second — Photosystem (PSI) — named #1 because it was discovered first — receive the photons from the nuclear fusion of the sun. In order to activate the PSII and PSI the energy needs to have a specific wave length of visible light.

In the example above, P680 is Chlorophyll type A variation called P680 is what donates the electron to PSII. P is pigment and 680 refers to 680 nano-meters — the wave length of light that this photosystem absorbs best. Between 625–740 nano-meters is the color is red.

Energy levels lower than those represented by red light are insufficient to raise an orbital electron to a excited (quantum) state or create enough activation for the electrons to start the process of photosynthesis.

This is why if a most regular plants die when they go too long without sunlight because they can not use their food to survive — their photosystems don’t have enough energy to activate.

How Plants Get Their Colour and Store Energy:

Chlorophylls and carotenoids are the two major classes of photosynthetic pigments found in plants and algae. Chlorophyll’s role is to absorb light for photosynthesis, while carotenoids as efficient molecules for the disposal of excess energy. When a leaf is exposed to full sun, the light-dependent reactions are required to process an enormous amount of energy; if that energy is not handled properly, it can do significant damage. Therefore, many carotenoids reside in the thylakoid membrane, absorb excess energy, and safely dissipate that energy as heat.

The excited state comes from the light energy received by the plant. The electron comes from the water. The reason this happens because Photosystem II when it does not have an electron it is noted at P680+ which is when it lack an electron. P680+ is the strongest biological oxidizing agent known in biology which means it has the ability to take away electrons. The molecule that is being oxidized is H2O. Water has 10 electrons (8 from oxygen and 2 from hydrogen). The H2O conceptually looks like this:

Background Info: The reason this bond seems to have only 8 electrons is even though oxygen has 8 electrons it only has 6 valence electrons. Valence electrons is the number of electrons that an atom has in an incomplete orbital. The first orbital has a maximum of 2 electrons and the second orbital has a maximum of 8 electrons. This means that the first 2 electrons for oxygen are in a stable orbital. The other 6 electrons of oxygen since they do not fulfil the 8 maximum of the orbital they are valence electron. With each individual hydrogen there is only 1 electrons. Which means their first orbital is not fulfilled so it would be a valence electrons. When you have valence electrons it means your atom is not stable. The goal of every atom is to have a full orbital to make it stable. When you have valence electrons the way you do that is by bonding with another atom. In the case of oxygen and hydrogen that is exactly what happens. The 6 valence electrons connect with 2 one electron hydrogen. This fulfils the 8 electrons that oxygen requires and the 2 electrons that each hydrogen needs to fulfil the first orbital.

When the H2O bonds are broken by P680+ an electron is taken which serves as the starting point of photosystem one. Once this electron is in the photosystem 2 it makes P680+ turn into a stable non oxidizing P680. As a result of the broken H2O bond you are left with 1/2 an O2 (the same as 1 oxygen) and 2H+ (which refers to 2 hydrogen with 1 less electron — which was the one lost to P680+.

Once this electron is in PSII it goes into two special chlorophyll a molecules in the reaction center that have the electron interact with the light energy. This creates the excited electron or an electron with energy which then goes into the primary electron accepter which acts as a place holder of energy. As the electron leaves the primary electron accepter. Then P680 turns into P680+ and then you get low energy electrons from the water bonds like described above.

In the image below you can see the electron transport chain from PSII to PSI. You can see the transport chain of the electron from plastoquinone (Pq) to cytochrome complex (CYT) to plastocyanine (Pc) enabling the the transfer of the electron from PSII to PSI. In the process of the electron being moved across the transport chain it also loses energy. That lost energy goes taking the H+ ions that are in the stroma (outside layer) to inside the Thylakoid lumen.

How Light dependent Reactions Work (PSI)

Again the same process happen with photosystem. The electron has low energy and it use light energy from the sun to power the process. The key difference in PSI is that is P700. Meaning that it best absorbs light at 700 nano-meters which is a shade of red. The electrons and the light energy interact when both are in the chlorophyll type a pair.

P700 is oxidized (losing electrons) and sends a high-energy electron to the ferredoxins which are proteins that mediate electron transfer to the NADP+ reductase which is the enzyme the oxidizes both the NADP+ and H+ ions — meaning that that enzyme provides both of them with an electron creating a neutral NADP and H. When you add both of them together you get NADPH

NADP+ to form NADPH. Thus, PSII captures the energy to create proton gradients to make ATP, and PSI captures the energy to reduce NADP+ into NADPH. The two photosystems work in concert, in part, to guarantee that the production of NADPH will roughly equal the production of ATP.

Creating ATP

The buildup of hydrogen ions that are moving from the stroma to the thylakoid lumen plus the ones produced by splitting water (to create the electron for PSII) accumulate in the thylakoid lumen. The ions build up energy because of diffusion and because they all have the same electrical charge, repelling each other.

To release this energy, hydrogen ions will rush through any opening, similar to water jetting through a hole in a dam. The energy released by the hydrogen ion stream allows ATP synthase to attach a third phosphate group to ADP, which forms a molecule of ATP The flow of hydrogen ions through ATP synthase is called chemiosmosis because the ions move from an area of high to an area of low concentration through a semi-permeable structure.

In the thylakoid, that opening is a passage through a specialized protein channel called the ATP synthase. The ATP synthase is a mitochondrial enzyme localized in the inner membrane which is responsible for the activation of the reaction to create ATP from ADP and phosphate.

Light Independent Reactions

In plants, carbon dioxide (CO2) enters the leaves through stomata (plural of stoma) and reaches the mesophyll cells. Once in the mesophyll cells, CO2 diffuses into the stroma of the chloroplast — the site of light-independent reactions of photosynthesis. These reactions are called the Calvin cycles — named after the man who discovered it: Dr. Melvin Calvin. These reactions actually have several names associated with them.

Generally there are 3 stages of the Calvin cycle: fixation, reduction, and regeneration.

High Level of all 3 stages

Stage 1: Fixation

For each CO2 molecule that reacts with one RuBP, two molecules of another compound (3-PGA) form. 3-PGA has three carbons and one phosphate. Each turn of the cycle involves only one RuBP and one carbon dioxide and forms two molecules of 3-PGA. The number of carbon atoms remains the same, as the atoms move to form new bonds during the reactions (3 atoms from 3CO2 + 15 atoms from 3RuBP = 18 atoms in 3 atoms of 3-PGA). This process is called carbon fixation, because CO2 is “fixed” from an inorganic form into organic molecules. When carbon is fixated it turned into a form that can be used by plants.

How CO2 helps the plant — carbon fixation same as nitrogen fixation — making it useable.

Stage 2: Reduction

ATP and NADPH are used to convert the six molecules of 3-PGA into six molecules of a chemical called glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate (G3P). That is a reduction reaction because it involves the gain of electrons by 3-PGA. Recall that a reduction is the gain of an electron by an atom or molecule. Six molecules of both ATP and NADPH are used. For ATP, energy is released with the loss of the terminal phosphate atom, converting it into ADP; for NADPH, both energy and a hydrogen atom are lost, converting it into NADP+. Both of these molecules return to the nearby light-dependent reactions to be reused and reenergized.

Stage 3: Regeneration.

How Nitrogen is Fixated in Corn

The reason why this is important to understand is to see how the nitrogen in biochar can turn into a beneficial nutrient for plant growth.

How Does Nitrogen Fertilizer for Plants?

Commercial fertilizer can contain a variety of different chemical forms of nitrogen, including ammonium (NH4), nitrite (NO2), nitrate (NO3), and urea (CH4N2O), but plants can directly use nitrate (NO3) and ammonium (NH4).

How Does This Work For Corn?

Corn specifically use ammonium (NH4) more efficiently when comparing to Nitrate (NH3). When taken up by roots , the ammonium form (NH4) is directly converted into amino acids.

While Nitrates (NO3) must be transported to the leaves before being transformed into amino acids. More steps = less efficient.

How is Nitrogen Helpful to Plants

As mentioned in the photosynthesis section, nitrogen represent about 15% of RuBisCO which is an enzyme that is responsible for the starting of light independent reactions (part 2 of photosynthesis process).

In the N2 it is nitrogen triple bonded to another nitrogen

Add picture of N (triple bond) N.

Nitrogen Fixation: The Process of Turning N2 into Useable Ions for Plants.

Nitrogen Fixation: Where atmospheric nitrogen to ammonia (NH3), Nitrite (NO2), Nitrate (NO3).

Types of Nitrogen Fixation:

There is atmospheric, industrial, and biological. The one that is relevant is biological since biochar is in the soil.

Biological nitrogen Fixation At a high level

Nitrogen (N2) enter the soil (from the atmosphere or fertilizer). Then diazotrophs — organisms capable of assimilating atmospheric nitrogen — create can create ammonium (which can be used by corn).

The enzyme (which is a protein catalyst — meaning they speed up reactions) in the process of biological nitrogen fixation is called Nitrogenase also known as Mo-Fe

Process of Nitrogenase

Step 1: Since the enzyme is a diazotroph they live in habitats low in oxygen, such as soils and decaying vegetable matter. When the N2 gets into the soil it binds with the nitrogenase (the enzyme).

Step 2: Then the mixture goes through a process called reduction which means that they are gaining electrons. This comes from the 2H+. The 2H comes from water molecules within the soil.

Step 3: Continue repeating step 2 until you have an ion that is useable for plants like ammonia (NH3) or ammonium (NH4).

Once the the ammonia is released the nitrogenase breaks off from the released products and is now available to bind to the next N2 molecule.

Part 2: Choosing a region and plant species to focus on

19.5% of the world’s calories comes from Maize (corn). The highest producer is the U.S, they produce 36.3% of the world’s maize. 578.6M tons of are produced in Iowa (54.5% of US total). Basically almost 4% of the world’s calories come from Iowa.

99% of Iowa’s corn is field corn (1 of the 6 types of corn). I picked specifically counties in central Iowa. In the image below you can see the yield of corn of Iowa in 2020. A bushel = 56 pounds of product harvested

Red Highlights Central Iowa.

The reason I chose central Iowa because

This region has low yield
I noticed a trend in their yield from 2019 to 2020 (they went down a lot).

Boone — 0.006% decrease in land — 14% decrease in yield

Dallas — 3% increase in land — 3.7% decrease in yield

Grundy — 1.8% decrease in land — 7% decrease in yield

Hamilton — 2.5% increase in land — 1.2% increase in yield

Hardlin — 0.7% land decrease — 8% yield decrease

Jasper and Marshall — info was not disclosed

Polk — 3% land decrease — 9% yield decrease

Poweshiek — 3% land decrease — 7% yield decrease

Story — 1.7% land decrease — 10% yield decrease

Tama — 0.2% land decrease — 17% yield decrease

Webster — 2.1% land increase — 1.4% yield increase.

Apart from Hamilton and Webster. There has been a decrease of yield minimum 2 times more than area of land planted.

Part 3: How Feasible is Biochar to Mass Scale?

Below is a description of how much biochar it takes to get to net zero CO2 emissions, what percentage of the world’s biomass (which is used to make biochar), and how much land is need for all of the biochar.

Scenario — Normally biochar can capture 3 tons of carbon. If you add potassium to biochar you can increase your carbon sequestration by 45% or 4.35 tons of CO2 capture.
CO2 — There are 43 billion tons of CO2 being emitted around the world.
Tons of Biochar for Net Zero — 43B tons of CO2/4.35 tons of CO2 captured from 1 ton of biochar.
How Much Biomass you need 20% efficiency — Take the # of tons for biochar to be next zero and divide by 0.2 because Pyrolysis — the process that makes biochar from biochar mass has a 20% efficiency.
Biomass in the world — There are 550 Billion tons of biomass in the world
Agricultural Land — There are 988.5 million acres of farm land in the world.
Acres of farmland Needed — agricultural land/10 tons per acre. Biochar is commonly recommended at no more than 10 tons per acre in field crop production.

How Soil Affects Plant Growth

Thu, 04 Nov 2021 00:00:00 GMT

TLDR of What I learned

1. How nutrients get to the plant.
Nutrients are they are broken down into ions (splitting of a molecule into atoms with positive and others with negative charges) which happens by getting into the water.

Since sand and silt have little to no charge they attract little water and nutrients. Clay and Organic Matter have a negative charge which helps them in attracting the positive hydrogen ions in water.

How roots receive this water is based on a process called cohesion where the positive hydrogen of one H2O molecule is attracted to the negative of an oxygen atom of another H2O molecule. This means that the movement of the molecule in 1 direction would move the second molecule in the same direction.

Since toots can only grow in sand or silt since they have large enough pores to hold the root. The root would absorb the limited water in the sand and silt. Through cohesion, As a water molecule is pulled into the root, it pulls more water into the same direction it moved because of the strong hydrogen bonding of the water.

2. How pH affects plant growth
The reason this is important is that this has been the main concern for biochar (from what I have seen so far). Biochar is usually has a pH of over 7.5 where plants are good around the 6 to 7 range. Decreasing biochar pH is possible so it should not be a problem in the future.

The pH scale measures the number of hydrogen ions in a liquid (in this case water). The issue with pH is that it affects the nutrient levels by making changing them into a useable form for plants (not an ion).

Ex. Imagine a soil that has pH 7 and plenty of nutrients for plants. If we add some hydrogen ions, the pH will become more acidic (decreasing in pH. value). At this lower pH, phosphorus reacts with aluminum and precipitates, reducing the number of both ions in the soil solution. Plants now can’t get enough of either one to grow properly. There is still lots of phosphorus and aluminum in the soil, but it is now in a form that plants can’t use.

Types of Minerals in Soil (with Organic Matter)

Sand (Large pores) — almost no charge
Silt (Medium pores) — almost no charge
Clay (Small Pores) — Negative charge
Organic matter — Negative charge

Mechanism of How Water Moves Through Soil

Water (H2O) with one end being positive (H) and the other negative (O). You can think of water molecules as being small magnets, with one end being attracted to the other. This sticky nature of water is called cohesion.

How Water Interacts with Minerals and Organic Matter

Hydrogen has a positive charge (since it has a lower electronegativity than Oxygen) while clay and organic matter have negative charges attracting the positive charges of the hydrogen from the water. Creating a strong bond makes it harder for gravity to pull the water down. While Sand and Silt almost have no charge meaning their pores are not able to hold water as long as clay

How Root Gets Water

Since roots grow into large and medium pores (sand and slit). The surface of the root comes in contact with the water layer in the pore. It is then able to absorb limited water from the sand and silt.

As a water molecule is pulled into the root, it pulls more water into the same direction it moved to strong bonding of the water positive and negative charges. This results in a constant flow of water, from areas away from the root to areas toward the root. It is the cohesive nature of water that allows roots to pull water from small pores, even though they are too big to fit into the spaces.

Aggregates

The smaller pieces of sand, silt, and clay have been mixed with OM to form larger structures called aggregates. When the soil has aggregate it will grow lots of plants and vice-versa.

There is a direct relationship between the size of aggregates and the fungal biomass. The microbial biomass decomposes plant and animal residues and soil organic matter to release carbon dioxide and plant-available nutrients. The larger the aggregate, the more plants grown, the more animals eat, the more waste created by both plants and animals.

Clay, iron oxide, and organic matter also act as cement in forming aggregates, but microorganisms provide the best binding agents (used to build up aggregate).

The key to why more aggregate = more yield is through is the release of carbon dioxide into the plants.

Soil pH

The pH scale measures the number of hydrogen ions in a liquid given as a number between 0 and 14. With a ph of 7 as neutral. Anything above 7 is an alkaline low level of hydrogen ions, and below 7 is acidic. Biochar normally seems to be a bad alkaline. Most plants grow best between 5.5 and 7.0 pH. Soil pH ranges from 3.5 to 10.5, but these are extremes; most are between 5 and 8.5.

How pH is measured — Not 100% important, but important to Know

This is common knowledge (the above), but what most people don’t know is that pH is measured on a logarithmic scale. (Do you remember high school math?) This means that a pH of 8 is 10 times more alkaline than a pH of 7; a pH change of 1 unit is an acidity change of 10 units. A change of 2 numbers, for example, 5 to 7, is a change of 100, which is a significant change.

pH Does Not Directly Affect Plants

Plant growth is primarily affected by the level of hydrogen ions (H+ from the water molecule).

pH affects the nutrient levels in the soil solution and therefore influences plant growth.

Nutrients + water = main method of growth of plants.

Types of Minerals

Two main categories:

On-mineral — make up 96% of a plant and consist of oxygen, hydrogen, and carbon. The plant absorbs CO2 from the air, which provides most of the carbon and some of the oxygen it needs, and takes in water and oxygen through the roots.
Mineral Nutrients — although minerals like nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, account for only 4% of a plant’s weight, they are vital to its growth.

How Plants Use Minerals

We talk about plants using iron, calcium, and magnesium, but actually, plants can’t use any of these. Putting an iron nail in the soil does nothing to feed plants. They can use these metals only once they are converted into something called ions.

Ex. When calcium is exposed to air, a chemical reaction with oxygen forms a type of rust, producing a white powder, calcium oxide (CaO). When CaO dissolves in water, calcium, and oxygen separate into charged particles that are called ions. The calcium ion has a positive charge (a cation), and the oxygen ion has a negative charge (an anion).
Based on water cohesion, one end of the water molecule has a positive charge, and the other has a negative charge, and it is this property that allows the calcium oxide to separate into two charged particles. The calcium, being positive, is attracted to the negatively charged end of the water molecule, and the oxygen is attracted to others. Once the calcium is in the form of an ion, plants can absorb it through the roots and use it inside the plant.

Ions are created from being dissolved in water. The nutrients that a plant gets come from the water which comes from pores in the soil.

Salt

Definition: The general public uses the term salt to mean table salt, which is sodium chloride. Chemists, soil scientists, and this book use the term to refer to any compound that is made up of ions. Sodium chloride is one of many different types of salts. In water, it breaks up into sodium ions (Na+) and chloride ions (Cl-).

Soil Myth: Salt Kill Soil Microbes

Many believe that the salts in synthetic fertilizer harm soil life, but that is not true. They dissolve in water, forming ions, the same as the ions released from organic material like manure or compost. They are essential for the growth of microbes and plants. Any chemical, no matter how useful, can become toxic at high levels. Provided fertilizers are used in appropriate amounts, they do not harm soil life.

Movement of Nutrients in Soil.

Sand and silt particles have almost no electrical charge on their surface, so ions don’t stick to them very well. When nutrient ions come into contact with these particles, they just keep moving along with the water. For this reason, rain easily washes nutrient ions out of sand and silt into the subsoil layers, which explains why such soils have low natural fertility.
Clay and organic matter have both negative and positive charges, but they are mostly negatively charged. Both anions and cations stick to clay and OM very tightly, preventing water from washing them away. When rain flows through clay soil or soil that contains a lot of organic matter, it does dislodge some nutrients and moves them deeper in the soil, but the effect is minor. Most nutrients remain stuck in place. The net effect is that nutrients move much more slowly in these soils than in sandy soil.
Most movement happens as a result of ions moving into small clay pores which are connected to medium (silt) and large (sand) pores which are where the roots are connected. Over time this supplies water with ions (or salts) that help the plant grow.

Carbon Capture Explained

Thu, 14 Oct 2021 00:00:00 GMT

What is carbon capture?

The process of capturing carbon dioxide (or CO2) from the atmosphere, during power generation, and industrial processes.

What are the different categories of carbon capture?

a) Post-Combustion Carbon Capture

This category of carbon capture is concerned with capturing carbon dioxide from flue gas (the smoke coming from the factory chimney).

What are the different methods of Post-combustion carbon capture?

ai) Solvent-based carbon capture
**A solvent is a substance that can dissolve other substances. The chemical process is called absorption. This is where a liquid is soaked up into something like a sponge, cloth, or filter paper.

In carbon capture, the industry standard of solvents is amine-based solvents. The reason amine-based solvents are used is that they are the most developed solvent to date. As they have been used commercially for oil recovery since the 1950s.

An amine is a derivative of ammonia (NH3). An amine takes the structure of NH3 and removes one or more hydrogens and replaces it with another compound. Below is an image of the transformation from ammonia to a 3° amine.

Note : For this article view the letter “R” as a substitute for hydrogen.

The goal of the change is to increase the reactivity of our solvent. When we increase reaction speed we can use less energy to power our carbon capture plant.

Even though amine-based solvents are the most research-developed solvents, they require a lot of energy use, sometimes as high as 3 times the minimum theoretical energy. Making the technology very expensive and unprofitable.

**What is the process of using amine-based solvents?
**CO2 is absorbed typically using amines to form a soluble carbonate salt. The absorber operates below 60°C pressure.

This reaction is reversible and the CO2 can be released by heating the solution with the carbonate salt in a separate stripping column. The CO2 stripping occurs at 120°C and pressures ranging between 1.8 and 3 bar are shown in step 2. As the CO2-absorbent bond gets separated in the stripping column, the CO2 and absorbent are released. Usually, the CO2 is stored in the ground and the absorbent is reused in the chemical process to capture more CO2.

These solvents are thought to deliver potential benefits in CO2 capture systems, such as enhanced, increased absorption capacities, and lower regeneration heat duties.

Increased absorption leads refer to a CO2 absorption capacity. It is defined as the amount of CO2 that can be absorbed per mole of solvent (mole CO2/mole solvent). More CO2 per reaction creates a cheaper cost per ton of CO2 captured.

The main performance indicators for solvents are material selectivity and ease of regeneration. Both of which contribute to the cost of the operation. The higher the selectivity and the higher solvent regenerated the less a carbon capture solution would cost.

Selectivity, therefore, is the capability of a method to distinguish a given analyte from other substances. The analyte is our target substance in the flue gas: CO2. The higher the selectivity of our material the more likely it can absorb the CO2. The higher the selectivity of our material the more likely it can absorb the CO2. The impurities in the container might hinder the reaction.

Ease of generation is the amount of energy required to regenerate a solvent. This is to separate the bond between the solvent and CO2. After the reaction, we usually end up with less than 100% of the original solvent. The losses come as a result of impurities in the elements used (solvent, CO2, or other elements absorbed that aren’t CO2).

aii) Sorbent-based Carbon Capture

A sorbent is a material that is used to absorb liquids or gas. Solvents and sorbents have the same function. The difference is sorbents are usually solid, while solvents are usually liquid.

Sorbents are porous materials meaning they have a void within their physicals structure. When using the same absorption and separation process as the solvent-based carbon capture the CO2 is capture within the voids.

The attractive part about absorbents is they have lower regenerations energies due to lower heat capacities. Heat capacity is the number of heat units needed to raise a substance’s temperature by 1 degree. If we can raise the temperature of our sorbent we can go through the breaking of the sorbent-CO2 bond in the stripper column faster at the same temperature. Less time means less energy used, creating cheaper costs.

Controlling the pore (the void) sizing and functionalization of the absorbent have been reported to be the 2 most prominent factors affecting gas separation (referring to CO2 separating from flue gas) and uptake (the absorption process).

Pore sizing is the size of an area of space within the structure. In sorbents the larger we can make the voids the make space where CO2 can be capture. You can do this through functionalization is the process of adding new capabilities or properties to material by changing the surface chemistry of the material.

iii) Membrane-based Carbon Capture

A membrane is a selective barrier allowing some materials/elements to pass through and others do not.

Membranes are promising because they have the potential to overcome the limitation of sorbents and solvents. The main advantages of membrane-based technologies include the following:

Low capital cost
The membrane requires little material to coat. It does not need additional facilities such as a large pretreatment vessel — the treatment of something with a chemical before use — and solvent storage.
Low operating cost
The main operating cost for the membrane separation unit is only membrane replacement. Due to the smaller size and weight of the membrane, the cost is much lower than the conventional techniques, which replace a large amount of solvent or sorbent.
Simplicity and reliability
Since the membrane does not show fast decay in performance that most likely occurs to the traditional solvents or sorbents, it can be running unattended for long periods.
Adaptability
The membrane system is designed and operated to remove the required percentage of CO2 instead of the absolute quantity of CO2 removal. Variations in the feed CO2 concentration can be adjusted by varying the space velocity to keep constant product quality.
Design efficiency
A membrane system can integrate several processes into one unit, such as Hg vapor removal, H2S removal, and dehydration. Traditional CO2 removal techniques have to operate these steps separately.
Easy for remote area
Multiple membranes could be packed into one module to reduce size and weight, which not only increases membrane area in unit volume but also makes it easier to transport to remote locations. Simple installation is feasible at which spare parts are rare, laborers are unskilled and additional facilities (such as solvent storage, water supply, and power generation) are short in supply.

Membranes can virtually forever if you service them regularly and replace parts that wear out, like the storage tank and the faucet. Assuming that you are not constantly replacing it the typical membrane life is about 2 to 5 years, depending on the nature of the substances that are processed.

Membrane systems are not new — Selective membranes for CO2 capture have been widely developed and applied since the 1970s. There are 2 types of membrane systems. Membrane Gas Separation (MGS) and Membrane Contractor (MC). Even though I put in the post-combustion carbon capture section, it also can be used for Pre-combustion carbon capture (found later below). Below are the 2 types of membranes.

**Membrane Gas Separator (MGS)
**The performance of an MGS depends on several factors, such as the membrane material, thickness, and configuration(e.g. hollow fiber, flat sheet) as well as the module/system design.

Membrane material similar to solvents and sorbents is a mechanism within the material that makes them have a strong tendency to separate CO2 from the rest of the flue gas.

Thickness is had been found to increase membrane thickness increases microcapsule strength, whereas decrease membrane permeability. When the membrane decreases in permeability, then more substances pass through it.

As mentioned before, a configuration like hollow fiber can increase the surface area by up to 30 times. A membrane with a smaller surface area or lower permeability will impede molecular movement and thus lead to slower diffusion. The larger the surface area the quicker the reaction happens requiring less energy, reducing cost.

Selectivity, therefore, is the capability of a method to distinguish a given analyte from other substances.

Generally, the process goes as follows: gas molecules from the feed side — starting point or where the gas comes from — are absorbed by the membrane, then they diffuse across the membrane and then they desorb cause the release of the CO2 on the permeate side.

Most commercial membranes for gas separation are currently dominated by organic or polymeric membranes since they have some attractive features, e.g. lower fabrication cost compared to inorganic material, and are easy to fabricate either into flat and hollow fiber modules. These specific modules like flat and hollow fibers increase the surface area of our membrane. Higher surface area means we can capture/absorb more CO2 in the flue gas per cycle of membrane filtering.

Membrane Contractors (MC) combines membrane with conventional phase contacting operation such as absorption, and hence the benefits of both technologies can be fully utilized.

In MC, a porous (has voids) membrane is used to provide an extra area for contact between the gas and liquid phases and to avoid dispersion, which is the process of distributing substances across a wide area.

Hollow fiber membrane modules are preferred since they give up to 30 times higher surface area. On the basis, that both membranes (a hollow fiber and non-hollow fiber module) have the same absorption capacity. The one with a higher surface area has more space to capture/absorb the CO2 in the flue gas. The more you can absorb with a membrane the cheaper your cost per ton of CO2 capture.

In addition to the high surface area, the hybrid process offers other advantages, such as independent gas/liquid flow rates control without causing flooding, lack of modularity, and high cost.

Schematic of (a) membrane gas separation (MGS) and (b) membrane contactor (MC) for CO2 removal

Even though in recent years various types of materials (including inorganic and polymer-inorganic composite) have been developed as alternatives demonstrating promising features under research conditions, such as ceramic, glass, metals, zeolite, and carbon molecular sieve, but they cannot compete commercially with the current (most widely used) polymeric membranes because of the high module fabrication (production) cost.

The process of MC is very similar to MGS. The only difference between the 2 is the outcome of the reaction is the creation of a liquid or solvent.

All membranes (MGS or MC) have a trade-off between permeability — how fast molecules are passing through the membrane material — and selectivity — is the capability of a method to distinguish a target substance (CO2) from other substances. Suggesting as permeability increases selectivity decreases and vice versa.

Conclusion on Post-Combustion Carbon Capture

With membranes, it seems they only can limit, and completely stopping the production of CO2 seems probable isn’t too far away. One limitation this provides is we can maximum of net-zero on specifically on high CO2 concentration gas (15% to 20% concentration) otherwise it is less economically viable when compared to solvent and sorbent based carbon capture.

If you are just looking at an industry which is the processing of raw materials and manufactured goods in factories. Flue gases from natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants typically contain ~4% CO2 by volume, while compared to a CO2 concentration of 12–15% in flue gases from coal plants. Meaning that in most cases they are not economically viable for membrane use.

Advantages of Post-Combustion Carbon Capture

The advantage of post-combustion carbon capture is it can capture about 90% of the CO2 emissions. The tools/methods to capture carbon after combustion does not require fundamental changes to the processes of power and industrials plants, reducing the friction of usage.

Disadvantages of Post-Combustion Carbon Capture

The disadvantage of post-combustion carbon capture is it has a high capital investment. The energy output is reduced by at least 30%. The electricity unit generation cost can be increased by up to 140% for coal-fired plants and 60% for gas-fired plants.

Pre-combustion Carbon capture-combustion capture refers to removing CO2 from fossil fuels before combustion is completed.

This CO2 gas mixture that is created can range from 15%–50% concentration, allowing for potential uses of membranes from above. When compared to post-combustion technology, the gas mixture has a CO2 concentration of ~4–15%. The pre-combustion process allows for easier removal of the CO2 before the H2 is combusted.

Due to a higher concentration of CO2, pre-combustion capture typically is more efficient but the capital costs of the gasification process (process described above) are often more expensive than post-combustion capture methods.

The process goes as follows:
You take air and put it into an air separation unit producing almost pure oxygen. The oxygen flows into the gasifier reacting with fuel to form synthetic gas or syngas. Synthesis gas, or syngas, is a mixture of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, CO2, and smaller amounts of methane.

The syngas goes into a shift reactor and reacts with steam. The shift reactor converts carbon monoxide (CO) into hydrogen (H) and carbon dioxide. The CO2 is compressed or dehydrated which are purifying processes for natural gases, which are stored in the ground.

The hydrogen from the shift reactor gets burnt to power gas turbines and make electricity. The Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) then the excess heat from the gas turbine and turns it into steam. The steam is used to power the steam turbine to also create electricity.

The different methods of pre-combustion carbon capture include solvents, sorbents, and membranes (similar to post-combustion). The different methods are simply just ways of separating the hydrogen and CO2 from the syngas. The main compartment where each of these methods differs is how to separate the H2 and CO2 in the syngas in the shift reactor.

The methods that are being used are also the same. Pre-combustion carbon capture uses solvents, sorbents, and membranes. The key difference is the instead of trying to separate CO2 and CH4 (methane), the materials are trying to separate CO2 and H2.

In post-combustion carbon capture, when we were referring to solvents, it was about chemical solvents which are used based on the chemical reaction it creates.

In pre-combustion carbon capture, we are using physical solvents, which are used based on gas solubility. Solubility is the ability of a substance to be dissolved. This process is used as a result of the elevated CO2 partial pressure. Partial pressure refers to the pressure that a molecule is taking out of all of the pressure within a system. In this case, we are referring to CO2. Its partial pressure is value is higher in pre-combustion than post-combustion. What physical solvents can do is selectively capture CO2 in contact with a gas stream without a chemical reaction occurring.

Advantages of Pre-combustion Carbon Capture

CO2 emissions capture of 90% to 95% similar to Post-combustion, but since the syngas has a higher concentration (15–50% instead of 4 to 15%) of CO2 when comparing to post-combustion. It becomes cheaper if measured on a cost/ton basis.

Disadvantages Pre-Combustion Carbon Capture

It can only be applied to power plants and a limited type of industrial plant. This means that it can not be retrofitted — technology can be used as an add-on to some industrial and coal plants increasing friction for adoption. The energy penalty is only 20% (which is better than post-combustion carbon capture).

c) Oxy-fuel Carbon capture

Oxyfuel is where the capture of CO2 takes place after the fuel is burnt with pure oxygen instead of air. The process goes as follows:

We take the air, put it into an air separation unit, and create almost pure oxygen. Instead of using a gasifier, we use a broiler creating create heat-generating power. As an outcome of the broiler, we also create H20 and CO2, some of which are taken to control the heat into the broiler control temperature. The rest of the CO2 and H2O goes to the condensation unit.

In the unit, the CO2 can be separated by condensing of the water. Since the water was being been heated up to high temperatures, it is in its gas form: water vapor. The process of condensation takes gas and turns them into a liquid. In the process of transitioning to its liquid form, water starts to separate from CO2 Since CO2 and water are currently bonded when the water is condensed it turns into water. As an outcome, you would get CO2 that can be not collected and dehydrated, and ready for transport and storage. The H20 comes out and it can be used for hydroelectricity to power the plant.

The advantage of Oxyfuel-combustion is it can take up to 100% of CO2 (so we can get to net-zero).

Disadvantages include a higher capital investment compared to pre and post-combustion. Air separation per unit is energy-intensive (increasing cost). The process makes retrofitting — technology can be used as an additive to improve the current process — difficult. As a result, this does not have any commercial application yet.

Direct Air Carbon Capture (DAC)

The previous methods were all meant to reduce emissions of industrial plants. Since DAC captures CO2 from the atmosphere, the possible CO2 capture capacity is not restricted by emissions source — which was the case for the other 3 methods above. The general process goes as follows:

What are we doing with the carbon after we capture it?

Currently, there are 2 methods: Storage and Usage.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is where the CO2 is safely transported by road, ship, or pipeline, or a combination of the 3. Once it reaches the storage site, the CO2 of injected underground in carefully selected ore (or rocks) to store CO2. The CO2 is put several kilometers below the earth’s surface with pressure and temperature such that carbon dioxide will be in the supercritical phase.

A supercritical phase is a point in temperature and pressure where the liquid and gaseous phases of a substance merge into a single phase. This creates a dense liquid but has a viscosity like a gas. Density refers to how much mass exists in more unit volume. Liquids have a higher density per unit of volume.

There are more molecules in the CO2 in the same amount of space when compared to CO2’s gas state. Viscosity refers to a substance’s resistance to flow, so CO2 still flows like a gas. The reason you would want it in the supercritical condition is that the required storage volume is substantially less than if the CO2 were at “standard” (room)-pressure conditions.

Once injected into the ground, the CO2 goes through a process called structural storage where the CO2 is trapped under an impermeable layer of rock called the caprock. Impermeable rocks trap means that it doesn’t does let a substance pass through it. The rock is meant to prevent the CO2 from going up through the ground. As CO2 tries to keeps pushing against the caprock, the CO2 will go through mineral storage. This is a process where the CO2 binds chemically and reversibly to the surrounding rock in a process. The global capacity to store carbon dioxide is vast and lies between 5 and 30 trillion tons.

The current common storage sites for CO2 include former gas and oil fields. This happens due to enhanced oil recovery. When the CO2 is captured and stored in the ground, it flushes out oil from deposits that would otherwise be too hard to reach. It turns out that the oil that is capture once burned can release more carbon than was captured.

The process outlined above is currently labeled Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS). In the process of CCUS, after the CO2 is captured, it’s used to create new materials and products. Instead of just sequestering the CO2, it’s utilized to make everything from fuel, concrete, and shoes, to cleaning products, plastics, and food.

What are Companies Working in The Space?

From brief research, I found about 80+ carbon capture companies, which I will write an article break down the technology of each one to map out different ways carbon capture. Below are 2 companies just to give you an idea about the extremes in cost.

Carbon engineering

Method: Direct Air Carbon Capture

Technology: Their technology has 4 main pieces of equipment, all of which have been widely used in large-scale industries for years. This is how our technology achieves megaton scale with low scale-up risk and improved cost estimations.

The process starts with an air contactor — a large structure modeled off industrial cooling towers. A giant fan pulls air into this structure, where it passes over thin plastic surfaces that have potassium hydroxide solution flowing over them. This non-toxic solution chemically binds with the CO2 molecules, removing them from the air and trapping them in the liquid solution as a carbonate salt.

The salt has separated the solution into small pellets in a structure called a pellet reactor, which is made from a biodegradable polymer. As the polymer break capable of being decomposed or broken down by bacteria or other living organisms. These pellets are then heated in a calciner, to release the CO2 in pure gas form. The calciner is similar to equipment that’s used at a very large scale in mining for ore processing. This step also leaves behind processed pellets that are hydrated in a slaker and recycled back into the system to reproduce the original capture chemical.

Cost/Ton of CO2 Captured: ranging from $94 to $232 per ton CO2 from the atmosphere.

Cost of Machine: $500m per plant

Potential capture of DAC plant: 1 million tons of CO2 per year per DAC Plant.

As of currently, we are emitting 50 billion tons of greenhouse gas and around 76% is CO2. This means that we are emitting 38 billion tons of CO2 every year. We would need 38,000 carbon engineering plants.

Overall Cost: That would be $19,000,000,000,000 or $19 trillion just to build the machines + if we assume the cheaper cost/ton cost it would be 3,572,000,000,000 or $3.57 trillion to capture all of that carbon per year.

ClimeWorks

Method: Direct Air Capture

Technology: Ambient air is drawn into a collector with a fan and co2 is captured on the surface of a highly selective filter material (ex. membranes) that sits inside the collector next once the filter material is full of co2 the collector (blades)closes and is heated to around 100 degrees Celsius using the Carbfix (another carbon capture company) method the captured co2 is then mixed with water and pumped deep underground where it mineralizes and can be stored permanently for thousands of years.

Business Model: Customers can subscribe to Climeworks to permanently remove carbon dioxide. The problem here is this seems a lot like donation more than a product they would sell. The carbon they capture would capture any, but it is a way for the consumer to support the company.

Cost/Ton (for consumers): There are 3 pricing models

1. Explorer: $11/month you can remove 85KG of CO2 per year. 85KG is 0.085 tones. $11/month is $132 per year. This means that you are paying $1,552.9 per ton of CO2 capture which is more than 15 times less capital efficient than Carbon Engineering

Discoverer: $32/month you can remove 255KG of CO2 per year. 255KG is 0.255 tones. $32/month is $384 per year. This means that you are paying $1,505.8 per ton of CO2 capture which is still more 15 times less capital efficient than Carbon Engineering.

3. Special expedition: $75/month you can remove 600KG of CO2 per year. 600KG is 0.600 tones. $75/month is $900 per year. This means that you are paying $1,500 per ton of CO2 capture which is still more than 15 times less capital efficient than Carbon Engineering.

Cost of per ton (for company): $600–$800/ton

Cost of Orca (their best plant): $15 million/plant

Potential capture of Orca (their best plant): 4,000 tons of CO2 per year per Orca Plant. As we are emitting 38 billion tons of CO2 every year, we would need. You would need 9,500,000 plants to get to net zero.

(It’s worth noting upfront that while the plant is selling its CO2, it is not covering its full costs.)

Overall Cost: 142,500,000,000,000 (or $142.5 trillion) to build all of the plants and it would cost $22,800,000,000,000 (or $22.8 billion) per year to cover sequestration and storage cost.

Setting your Team Up for Success

Sun, 03 Oct 2021 00:00:00 GMT

Your job as a manager is to help get the best at people, not in a transactional way, but in I love my people and they love me so much that they are willing to perform for me. The main issue is: How do you do that? Below are the outlines of best practices for people leading teams.

Running a Good Pre-Mortem

A pre-mortem is an exercise where teams ask the question: “If we were to fail, why?” In this process, you would list out all of the reasons and then create ways to mitigate the probability of each reason.

One issue that people are not aware of in pre-mortems. The first person to speak has a lot of influence on everyone’s thinking. This limits the thinking capacity of everyone to consider more possibilities because the first opinion serves as an anchor.

Annie Duke suggests before saying their thoughts everyone takes a couple of minutes to think of the possible reasons for failure. When people have their ideas on paper they are less likely to get influenced by other people’s anchor statements. This extends the possibility of options for failure.

Another step Annie suggests is to list up to 5 points of failure within your control and outside your control. As you discuss as a team you narrow down to the most likely ones and creates ways to mitigate failure.

How to Make Pre-Mortems Even Better?

One thing that is missing with most pre-mortem teams is a reverse engineering success. The leader might ask “What does success look like?” Everyone has their answer and you put it down on the board. The problem is we did what are the things we need to do to maximize the probability of success.

A good framing to reverse engineer success looks something like this.

“Imagine after we finished the project the day after and we are celebrating. This was the best project implemented by this company/team. How would be able to do that?”

As Mike Williams says “The goal is to imagine not just success, but wild success.” Wild success expands your perception of what is possible. for that thought expanding your perception of what is possible. The more you can perceive the higher the likelihood of achieving more.

As Tom Bilyeu says “You can only get as good as the goals that for yourself” Wild success invites you to think beyond hitting a threshold, instead you are trying to set the bar. Most of any success (however you define it) is the ability to believe that you can do it.

Building Trust Through Communication

According to Chris Voss, a former FBI hostage negotiator there are 2 main drivers for human behavior:

1. To feel safe and secure

2. To feel in control.

Here are his different methods for achieving that?

Mirror

Mirroring is when you repeat back the last 1–3 words that the other person just said. When you copy, you activate the other person’s mirror neurons making you seem familiar. Familiarity creates certainty. Certainty creates safety.

Ex. Them: Could you get me a notebook

You: Notebook?

Them: Yeah…{then they specify the type of notebook they want.}

In this example, there are 5 types of notebooks. There is Spiral Notebook, Composition Notebook, Scientific or Lab Notebook, Novelty Notebook, Business Notebook.

This question tends to have people explain what they were asking for in a slightly different way.

Side note: The reason I added “Yeah” at the beginning is that it is the first word I usually hear after mirroring.

Label Their Feelings

Labeling their feeling explicitly say your observation of their emotional state. By doing this you make the other person feel understood because you observed instead of them needing to tell you.

How? {Insert either “It seems like” or “It sounds like”} you are {insert emotion} about {insert situation}.

Example: It seems like you are worried about this upcoming deadline.

Example 2: From the charity work that you are doing it sounds like you are a very generous person. Example 2 affirmed a belief that they want to have themselves

Even if you label their emotion incorrectly they will quickly object and tell how they are feeling. Even though you didn’t make them feel safe and secure (through being understood), you allowed them to feel in control because they corrected you.

Paraphrase

Paraphrasing is when you repeat what the other person said in your own words to demonstrate that you understood what they were saying.

Example

You: How was your day?

Them: Today was good!

You: Good? (Mirror)

Them: Yeah. I got an A on my latest physics test, had an awesome conversation with a friend I haven’t talked to in a long time, my soccer team just won the finals of the state cup…{and insert whatever else they talk to you about}

You: It seems like you were very excited today (labeling).

Them: You know what I also learned? {insert another thing they talk about.}

You: Wow, You did X, Y, and Z today and you learned A.

Even though the example above was trivial and clear the point. Most people when they talk they go in 10 thousand different directions and as a result, you lose clarity and coherence. Paraphrasing paired with mirroring and labeling creates 2 things

1. Improves your ability to listen. This happens because you are focusing on repeating and observing keywords and tone.

2. It makes the person feel heard. Which is the essence of feeling good when you are with someone else.

Side note: A small way to enhance the other feeling like you are listening to them use minimal encouragers to convey that you are listening: Yes, uh-huh, I see, Ok.

Asking Calibrated Questions

You can only last so long in a conversation (and still have) using the 3 techniques above. The next step to moving conversation is through Calibrated Questions. A calibrated question is the question that starts with the words “What” and “How.” They avoid words like Why, Can, Is, Are, Do, Does Questions.

When you ask “What” and “How” questions they are usually prompt more elaboration on the other person’s side (similar to the first 3 techniques).

The obvious exception is “How are You?” The problem with this question is most people have a scripted answer: Good, which doesn’t exactly get you anywhere. When you ask “What was on your mind” or “How are you thinking about approaching this problem?” You don’t have a 1-word answer for that.

When you have people elaborate you get 2 things

You get an insight into their thinking and how they process information, and their thinking patterns — this is useful for identifying what kinds of roles/problems this person would be best for.
As they start expanding on something thing like “What is on your mind?” What tends to happen is they have the opportunity to diverge from a just work-focused call/meeting to a more personal call. This allows you to start building a non-transactional relationship with your employees/team. When you care about them, they care about you, and as Simon Sinek says it usually shows in your results, engagement/happiness levels on employees.

On the other side if you look at Why, Can, Is, Are, Do, Does Questions. They usually prompt 1-word answers.

Can you do this? No.

Is that the reason you became excited? Probably.

Are able to get this done by Sunday? No.

Do you like soccer? Yes.

Does it make sense to take this decision? Nope.

Even though these questions have their place when you are just trying to coordinate between people and create certainty that something will happen like a deadline and specific thing for each task.

These questions are not the best ways to gather information from other people. You could ask “Don’t you think that Person A is a total jerk?” vs “What do you think of person A?”

The first encouraged a 1-word answer and you are implying what you think is the right answer by your question. The second didn’t try to influence your opinion. It just asking for your thoughts.

People need to try and justify their position to you, making it you vs them. This reduces trust and makes your relationship more transactional. This creates worse performance in people and reduces engagement and happiness levels over time.

What you can do to replace Why is asking “What are the reasons that you are going with this approach? It needs to have an out of curiosity tone because you are trying to understand their perspective rather than try and question their ideas/abilities. This creates a less defensive atmosphere and implies “We are working together to fix this problem and I want to understand your perspective because I think it is valuable.”

Pause

After you mirror, label, paraphrase, or ask a calibrated question, be silent. The time of silence is when the other person is thinking. Don’t let your need to avoid silence make you talk again, these are types of things that make people sit and think, magic happens in that silence. The answers they would give if you let them think are usually deeper and more personal answers than if you didn’t let them think.

In the process of creating rapport using the strategies above, you are breaking the barrier to people telling you things. The more the barrier decreases the more honest they are with you. The more honest they are, the other person trusts you. The more they trust you the more interested they are to work to the best of their ability for you. A higher work ethic leads to better company metrics, higher revenue, and more employee satisfaction.

Creating Trust

Even though the model above is meant to create trust and rapport that is for early stages in relationships to decrease time to begin initial trust. For the long term, we often hear or intuitively understand that trust in a team is important. Even though it is obvious. Nobody talks about “How” and even people who try don’t have a good idea of how. Bernie Brown, a researcher that has spent decades studying the topics of courage, vulnerability, shame, and empathy suggests this as a long-term trust model.

Reliability | You do what you say you’ll do. When people need something from you, you always deliver. People can rely on you, whenever everything goes wrong you are one person working to fix it.

Accountability | Own your mistakes, apologize, and make amends. When you as a manager admit your mistakes you signal to everyone else that owning up to your mistakes is the norm. The more mistakes the people own up to the fewer unexcepted problems come up, the lower magnitude of problems you need to fix and then you fix them faster.

Vault (No gossip) | You don’t share information or experiences that are not yours to share. When you talk about person A’s secret to person B (who shouldn’t know it) you are violating the trust of person A. It also signals to person B that if they tell you a secret you are an untrustworthy person.

Generosity | You extend the most generous interpretation possible to the intentions, words, and actions of others. Let’s say someone doesn’t get their work done by the specified deadline. Instead of thinking this person is lazy or uncommitted. You can think maybe one of their children is sick, a close friend might have just died. When you go through negative thinking about other people it shows up in your tone turning them away. It also makes you more distrustful of that person by default, which is not exactly a great environment.

How to Help Your Team Perform Better.

As Michael Bungay Stanier describes, most of us fall into the advice trap. This is when an employee asks you how they should approach a problem that they are experiencing and then based on your knowledge/more experience in the company you tell them how to fix the problem.

There are just a couple of issues when constantly seek advice without learning how to solve the problem themselves leads them to be reliant on you to fix problems. Which is the long-term would be a net-negative for the employee.

What good coaches and managers do is ask more questions than answers. When the employee asks a question — the manager can provide them with guiding questions to help the employee figure out the answer. As a result, the employee has an idea of how to approach the problem and most of the information came from themselves, not the manager. Over time, the manager is training the employees to use their figure-it-out muscles while also reducing the time it takes for them to get to the answer.

In the book The Coaching Habit, he has found amazing general questions that act as good starting point to understand help understand how your employee is doing, what they are working on, their biggest challenges, priorities, etc.

What is in your mind?
A 2010 study showed that at any point in time we have something on our mind — meaning it uses energy which reduces our mental capacity to do anything else. Making you less efficient with your time. You ask this question to help others to release the unconscious drainer of computation energy. The question acts as a more natural conversation starter no matter who you are talking to.
What’s the real challenge here for you?
The word “real” implies that the challenge has to have a significant impact. The word “challenge” is asking for what is blocking progress. According to a 1997 study, the words “for you” limit the person being asked to just problems for themselves. Not high-level abstract problems that have nothing to do with them.
What was the most useful for you?
Most of the information advice you give is pointless. Regardless of how good the advice was. The learning from the advice happens when you try to remember it. When you ask this question you force the other person to remember at least 1 thing, which makes it more likely for them to act on it.
And What Else?
This question can be applied to all 3 above. “And what else is on your mind?” or “And what else is the real challenge for you?” or “And what else was most useful for you?” It forces the other person to extend the number of possibilities. A study conducted by Paul Nutt looking at 168 decisions made within organizations. He found out that 71% of choices preceding decisions were binary. It was simply: Should we do this? Or should we not? Nutt found out that decisions made from these binary choices had a failure rate greater than 50%. He then looked at the success rate of decisions that involved more choices. For instance, what would happen if you added just one more option: Should we do this or this? Or not?. Having at least one more option lowered the failure rate to 30%.

How Leaders Set Up Their Teams for Success

Kory Gorski, a product lead and and Amy Smidutz, director of engineering both say “One of the most important parts of my job is to give people context.” Context as in why what they are doing is important, mapping out what good looks like. To take that 1 step further, Jocko Willink (a retired Navy Seal officer)suggests that you ask the person how they initially plan to approach the task or problem. This is good because the person who is doing the task can get feedback on their thought process, potential issues that will come up, etc. All of which is meant to reduce friction for action through having direction.

Style Transfer using VGG19

Mon, 31 May 2021 00:00:00 GMT

Before we get into how this style transfer happens we first need to understand how CNNs work. In general, CNNs can look at images and learn to identify spatial patterns such as prominent colour and shapes.

The shapes and colours that define an image or any object in an image are often called features.

To preserve these features our CNN uses a convolutional layer. A convolutional layer applies different image filters also known as convolutional kernels to an input image.

Convolutional filters being applied to our input image

We take the image of a cat (content image)and take the image of The Great Wave off Kanagawa painting (style image). As a result, we get an image of a cat with the look of our painting.

Within the CNN, the maxpooling layers discard detailed spatial information, that is irrelevant to the task of classification. When we go deeper into a CNN the input image is transformed goes into the convolutional layers that care about the content of an image rather than detail about the texture and color of pixels.

We take the image of a cat (content image)and take the image of The Great Wave off Kanagawa painting (style image). As a result, we get an image of a cat with the look of our painting.

Later layers in the CNN as sometimes referred to as a content representation of an image. In this situation the CNN learned how to represent a content image, but what about style?

The style of an image can be thought of as traits that might be found in the brush strokes of a painting: the texture, colors, curvature, etc. To perform style transfers we need to combine the content of one image with the style of another.

To represent the style of an input image, the convolutional layers are designed to capture texture, and colour information is used. These layers look at spatial correlations within a layer of a network. A correlation is a measure of the relationship between two or more variables.

For example, you could look at the first convolutional layer which has some depth (64), the depth corresponds to the number of feature maps in that layer.

For each feature map, we can measure how strongly its detected features relate to the other feature maps in that layer.

Let’s say, we detect that mini-feature maps in the first convolutional layer have similar pink edge features. if there are common colours and shapes among the feature maps, then this can be thought of as part of that image’s style.

So the similarities and differences between features in a layer should give us some information about the texture and color information found in an image. At the same time, it should leave out anything about the identity or placement of objects in an image.

So when we do our style transfer we take 2 images: a content image and a style image. From the content image, we will take the object and shape arrangement and take the colors and textures from the style image.

For this project, I’m recreating a style transfer method outlined in this paper which uses a CNN called VGG19 and creates the style transfer effect using the pre-trained network features.

This network (VGG19) takes a colored image as input and passes it through a series of convolution and pooling layers. Followed by 3 fully connected layers that classify the input image.

In between the 5 pooling layers (the orange squares), there are stacks of 2 or 4 convolution layers. In this image above we have the name of the stack and its order in the stack. For example, conv2_1 is in the second stack and we are looking at layer number 1.

In order to create the target image (output of style transfer). We will first pass our content image through our VGG19 network. The content image will go through the feed-forward process until it reaches a deep convolutional layer in the network. The output of this layer will be the content representation of the input image.

Next, when it sees the style image, it will extract different features from multiple layers that represent the style of that image. Finally, it will use both the content and style representations to inform the creation of the target image.

When we get the content representation from conv4_2 as outlined in the paper we will have a copy of our content image and we need to manipulate it with our style so that its content is close to that of our content image and its style is close to that of our style image.

As we form our new target image, we’ll compare its content representation with that of our content image. These 2 representations should be close to the same even as our target image changes its style.

For this, we’ll define a content loss, a loss that calculates the difference between the content and target image representations which for the sake of this example will be called Cc (content representation of the content image)and Tc (content representation of target image).

In this case, we calculate the mean squared difference between the two representations. This is our content loss and it measures how far away these two representations are from one another.

As we try to create the best target image we will aim to minimize this loss. Our goal is not to minimize the classification error, rather our goal is to change only the target image updating its appearance until its content representation matches that of our content image.

In this situation, we are using the VGG19 as a feature extractor and using backpropagation to minimize a defined loss function between our target and content images.

Next, we do the same thing but for our style representations of our target image and style image. The style representation of an image relies on looking at correlations between the features in individual layers of the VVG19 network.

Similarities will include the general colors and textures found in that layer. We typically find the similarities between features in multiple layers in the network.

By including the correlations between multiple layers of different sizes, we can obtain a multiscale style representation of the input image, one that captures large and small style features. The style representation is calculated as an image passes through the network in the first convolutional layer in all 5 stacks. Conv1_1, Conv2_1, Conv3_1, Conv4_1, and Conv5_1.

The correlations in each layer are given by a gram matrix. The matrix is a result of a couple of operations.

Say we start with a 4x4 image and we convolve it with 8 different image filters to create a convolutional layer. This convolutional layer will be 4x4 in height and width (to represent the 4x4 image) and 8 in-depth (to represent the number of filters that the image will go through).

4x4 image turning it into a 3D convolutional layer

Thinking about the style representation for this layer, we can say that this layer has 8 feature maps that we want to find the relationships between.

The first step in calculating the Gram matrix will be to vectorize the values in this layer. The first values in the feature map will become the first four values in a vector with length 16.

By flattening the x and y dimensions of the feature maps, we are converting a 3D convolutional layer into a 2D matrix of values. The next step is to multiply this matrix by its transpose.

A transpose is a matrix that has the x and y values switching spots. For example our 2D matrix, 16x8 has a transpose of 8x16. The reason we do this is that when we do matrix multiplication the y value of the first matrix and the x of the second matrix needs to match up otherwise we can’t multiply the 2 matrices.

To reason we need to multiply by the transpose is that it helps us get our Gram matrix. This operation treats each value in the feature map as an individual sample unrelated in space to other values. So the resultant Gram matrix contains non-localized information about the layer.

Getting the gram matrix as a result of the matrix multiplication

For example, even if the content of a filtered image is not identifiable, our network will still be able to see prominent colors and textures, the style.
Finally, we are left with the square 8x8 Gram matrix whose values indicate the similarities between the layers.

If we look at row 4, column 2 will hold a value that indicates the similarity between the fourth and second feature maps in a layer (highlighted in yellow in the image above).

Importantly the dimensions of this matrix are related only to the number of feature maps in the convolution layers. It doesn’t depend on the dimensions of the input image.

To calculate the style loss between a target and style image we find the mean squared distance between the style and target image gram matrices. All five pairs that computed at each layer in our predefined list (conv1_1 up to conv5_1). These lists will be called Ss (style representation of style image) and Ts(style representation of target image. With acting as a constant that accounts for the number of values in each layer.

We will multiply these calculated distances by some style weights w that we specify and then add them up. The style weights are values that will give more or less weight to the calculated style at each of the five layers, thereby changing how much effect each layers’ style representation will have on our final target image.

Again we will only be changing that target image’s style representations as we minimize this loss over some number of iterations. Now we have the content loss, which tells us how close the content of our target image is to that of our content image, and our style loss which tells us how close our target is in style to our style image.

We can now add both of these losses together to get the total loss. Then we use the typical backpropagation and optimization to reduce this loss by iteratively changing the target image to match our desired content and style images.

Since both of these images are calculated differently, these values will be different and we want our target image to take both into account fairly and equally. So, it’s necessary to apply constant weights, alpha and beta to the content and style losses such that the total loss reflects an equal balance.

In practice, this means multiplying the style loss by a much larger weight value than the content loss. This is often expressed as the ratio of content and style weights alpha over beta.

In the paper, we see the effects of a bigger or smaller ratio. here is an example of a content and style image. We can imagine the content weight, alpha is one and the style weight beta is 10. You can see that this target image is mostly content without much style.

As beta increases to 100, then 1,000, and alpha stays at 1. We can see more and more styles in the generated image. Finally, we can see that this image can go too far, at a ratio of 10 to the negative 4 we see that most of the content is gone and the only style remains. In general the smaller the alpha-beta ratio the more stylistic effect you will see.

This makes intuitive sense because a smaller ratio corresponds to a larger value for beta, the style weight. You may find that certain ratios work well for one image, but not another, and depending on the image that you are making you can make the changes the create the exact kind of stylized effect that you want.

How to Create A Successful Company with Peter Thiel

Mon, 24 May 2021 00:00:00 GMT

Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and venture capitalist. A co-founder of PayPal, Palantir Technologies, and Founders Fund, he was the first outside investor in Facebook and an early in. This guy must have done something right to get to the place he is currently in. This article will highlight different strands of his philosophy for success as an entrepreneur.

1. Aim for a Monopoly

As you know a monopoly is meant when your company takes a large part of the market share, this usually happens because you have are the only one in the market, you have the best product functionality, or you are the desired brand in your space. Right now you might be scrambling to think of any monopolies since Microsoft in the 90s. The reason this happens is that all companies reframe their company so they don’t appear like a monopoly.

A company like Google is a monopoly, but how they express their ownership of the market very differently from how it is. Even though Google owns 66% of the search engine market. They would distort what they are doing to appear smaller. Instead of being just a search engine, they are competing with other autonomous vehicle companies, they are competing with Apple for phones and computers, and they say that they are a technology company competing in a massive market. After reading that you are thinking that Google is this company that is coming across the competition in every direction they look and they are not the monopoly that should be regulated by the government end of the story.

Now if you think on the flip side, restaurant owners looking for money from investors tell the story of “we are the only {insert nationality} cuisine in {insert city}” For example “We are the only Vietnamese cuisine in Hamilton.” The only reason that “value add” would work is if there are people in Hamilton who will only eat Vietnamese food. There are so many competitors in the restaurant space taking a piece of the pie from everyone around them that eventually there are not enough pieces to go around to keep people afloat.

2. How to achieve a monopoly

Step 1: Start with a small market, not a big one.

As unintuitive as this sounds it increases your chances of success. The problem with entering a big market is that there is a lot of competition making it difficult to differentiate yourself from other people and by default implies you do not have a value add that a consumer can’t get anywhere else.

When you enter a small market your future competitors don’t think that you have the potential to be competition because your initial market is so small. If you take the example of Amazon, Jeff Bezos started with a bookstore that has allowed you to buy books from the comfort of your home (which was not an option before). Over time it expands into other areas of e-commerce and is now your one-stop shop for anything you want.

I look at eBay you had a similar process, they started with Pez dispensers, then beanie babies, and eventually becomes an auction site where people sell their goods to other people. Facebook also started with a small market. Their initial target market was 10,000 Harvard students. In 10 days, they were able to reach a 60% penetration. Through this quick adaptation, they have a consumer base which they can start building out their brand as they the foundation of active customers.

If we look on the opposite side of the spectrum. In 2005 during the cleantech era in silicon valley, companies entered the market in mass amounts, but did not know their competitive advantage over others because there were so many companies were entering and so many already in it that most companies did not have an awareness of all the companies in their space. If you don’t know what others are doing you can’t have a competitive advantage in any way.

Even though it possible for you to become a giant in an industry with a lot of competitors it does not minimize your chances of success. TikTok (the rebrand of music.ly) came out of nowhere and is now a significant competitor to Facebook, Snapchat, and Instagram (owned by Facebook). Their process was different most (so they are still somewhat reinventing). They started in China, which has blocked the majority of social media platforms including Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat, YouTube, and many others. They start with the most difficult place and then expanded to other countries which give a much easier time than China.

Step 2: Create a product with a magnitude better than what already exists.

When trying to disrupt an industry, you need to provide a much better value add than current competitors on the market. One of the ways to have a monopoly is through good branding like how coca-cola might not be the best pop drink but people drink it because of the brand. Assuming that you are not entering a market like the soft drink industry there are current problems that consumers face with the creative product that you can fix. When you fix a problem you are providing a product that is significantly better than what already exists and that is what initially attracts people to your product or brand.

For example, Paypal was registering online transactions on your bank account more than 10x times faster than eBay (a couple of hours vs 10 days). Take Apple, when they had working smartphones which are more desirable than flip phones. The initial improvement from the previous product gives you the defining edge that gets people to start using your product.

Step 3: Once you are the market leader, keep improving on your product so nobody can catch up to you

In step 2 when you disrupt current leaders you want to make sure that no one can do that to you. If you are the current market leader that means that nobody else has managed to create a better product than you. Sometimes companies believe that they will stay market leader with slow innovation, but it never works out that way.

When IBM was the leader of the computer industry, but as a company, their culture was very risk-averse so their innovation was very slow and commonly marginal. When Apple created its MacOS it slowly started gaining traction and became the market leader. Overtime as Apple continues to build their brand and product they are now in a situation where no one can overtake them as the market leader due to how far ahead they are compared to existing companies.

3. Don’t Compete

People often misinterpret competition for an opportunity. Even though it is true you can enter a massive market and aim to acquire only a small piece of the pie and you still come out cash positive. When you think back to the idea of a monopoly, the goal is to create a long-lasting business, not a short-term one. When you are competing with others it is very difficult to differentiate yourself from other people. You don’t want to be the 50th SaaS company in Ohio, the 20th clean energy company in Toronto, or the 10th project management software company. The problem with the examples mentioned is that by default you put yourself in a market category with many competitors that also implies that you are “another one of those” giving you no visible initial value.

Psychologically the reason people compete against each other is that it reassures you that you are doing the right thing. When you compete in school it seems that the only thing that matters in the world is your grades. When you compete in your workplace you think that number of billable hours you have is more important than your output. When people compete in the same industry you think it is more important to be marginally better than your competitors instead of creating a product that improves the lives of your consumers.

When Henry Kissinger describes the faculty at Harvard. He mentioned that people were ferocious because the stakes were small. When it is difficult to separate yourself from others, you have to find a way to be different which usually ends up through stories rather than objective truth.

As you are competing for these marginal gains you often reach a point of diminishing returns because you are trying to optimize/improve something that can only be improved marginally. The way to find to gain a competitive advantage is to reinvent the wheel and do it so much better than everyone else (of course easier said than done) or you could find a different market.

4. Create Vertical Not Horizontal Progress.

If you take one typewriter and build 100, you have made horizontal progress. If you have a typewriter and build a word processor, you have made vertical progress.” — Peter Thiel

With horizontal progress, you are copying others (what already exists) and thereby competing. As a result, there are fewer pieces of the pie that you can take. If you make vertical progress, you are differentiating yourself from others. If there is no one to compete with you, then you have no one taking your profits.

“The next Bill Gates will not build an operating system. The next Larry Page or Sergey Brin won’t make a search engine. And the next Mark Zuckerberg won’t create a social network. If you are copying these guys, you aren’t learning from them.” — Peter Thiel

Through this statement, he describes how every moment happens once. The goal is to describe that every great person that we know today is known because they reinvented the world as we see it. Nobody needs a new operating system, nobody needs another Google, people don’t need another social network. To learn from these people means to take the way that they think, perceive the world, and rethink what is possible to change how the world works.

This idea follows a vertical change, not a horizontal one. Of course, it’s easier to copy a model than to make something new, but by doing new you maximize your possibility to succeed in the business sense.

5. Solve a Problem

With so much hype nowadays on entrepreneurship and abandoning the 9 to 5 life. Many people become entrepreneurs to be entrepreneurs, but they never end up solving a problem. If you never solve an actual problem/have an important utility you can’t get anywhere, your chances of having a successful company go down.

6. Being a contraction is important for unconventional success

The following is an interview question that Peter Thiel asks people: “What is something you believe that few people agree with.”This question is an incredibly difficult question to answer and is probably one of the best ways to quickly evaluate people by allowing you to see the way people think.

Normally, we learn concepts and ideas that we are all meant to agree on. Having a question that asks for disagreement, makes it difficult for you to come up with an answer because most don’t think in that way. By seeing the ideas they have, one can see how much of a contrarian someone is.

Being a contrarian is extremely useful because when you are reinventing the wheel you will have many people telling you that you are crazy, that you can’t do it, that is impossible. Well if you don’t have any ideas that contradict what everyone else thinks, are they your thoughts? By that logic, if you are not an independent thinker then how can you reinvent the wheel and fundamentally change an industry for the better.

Using Neural Network to Classify Clothes and Shoes

Thu, 20 May 2021 00:00:00 GMT

Using a Neural Network to Classify Images to classify Images on the Fashion MNIST dataset.

If you are unfamiliar with neural networks, check out this article. It covers the different aspects to conceptually understand how neural networks. Here we are going to be applying this knowledge by actually building a neural network.

Below is a visual of a neural network. The basic structure goes as follows. In neural networks, we have input values (x₁ and x₂). We multiply them by their weights w₁ and w₂. Then we add a bias value to determine the activation value that we want our neuron to have.

After calculating our weighted sum (w₁ * x₁ + w₂ * x₂ + b) we get h. H is a neuron in the hidden layer of our network. This h value later becomes part of the input to create a value y (our output). To get the value y we need to multiply our weight sum (h) by a function. This function turns our weight sum into a value between 0 and 1, if not our neurons would not be able to function. Below you can what it looks like in the equation form.

The one thing that is important to note in the equation above is Σ called a summation or a sigma. This symbol communicates that we are taking the vector of wᵢ and xᵢ to multiply them by each other. The letter i represents how many of these vectors there are. If i =3 then we have (w₁ * x₁) + (w₂ * x₂) + (w₃ * x₃). This symbol provides a convenient way to write out our vector multiplication. Imagine if i = 1000. Writing all of those vectors out all of those vectors is extremely time-consuming so sigma is used as the general equation.

The image above is a vector representation of w and x. We would multiply the values by their corresponding number. For example (x1 * w1), (x2 * w2) and (xₙ * wₙ) with n serving the same purpose as i from the previous image. These vectors can be used to represent a tensor, which is a generalization of matrices. A vector is a 1-dimensional tensor as it only has one path it can operate. A matrix that is a 2-dimensional tensor can operation across the tensor in two ways. From left to right and top to bottom. An array with three indices is a 3-dimensional tensor, you could think of this as an RGB color image for every pixel there is a value for the red, the green, and the blue channels.

Building the Model

In this neural network, I used a framework called PyTorch. PyTorch is an open-source machine learning library used for computer vision and natural language processing. Pytorch, like any other machine learning framework, uses tensors to build its model.

The first thing we are going to do is import torch which is Pytorch. Torchvision allows us to import the Fashion MNIST dataset that we are using. We also need to import helper which is a custom script that you need to download to use. It allows us to see our model’s prediction (probability distribution) of what item it was given.

Now import the nn module which is said to provide a more convenient and powerful method for defining network architectures. We also import optim as in optimizers are algorithms used to change the attributes of the neural network such as weights and learning rate to reduce the losses (which is explained later throughout this article).

nn.functional is what we use to able to be able to implement a function to turn our weighted sum into a value between 0 and 1 (sigmoid, ReLu) or functions like softmax that helps us create a probability distribution from our model.

In our next step, we need to name our class which can be called anything. For this example, I chose to use “Classifier”. The important idea is we use the subclass nn. module so we can use the init method. This makes Pytorch register all the different layers and operations that we are putting into this network.

The fc1, fc2, fc3…fcₙ is an abbreviated way to say fully connected network. This communicates to the reader that each line moves from one layer to another in the neural network.

nn.Linear takes our input value (ex. fc1 input = 784 neurons) and turns it into the outvalue that we specify (ex. fc1 output = 256 neurons). It does this using a linear transformation (hence nn.Linear) which is our weighted sum.

nn.Linear creates an object that creates the parameters for the weights and the biases. When we pass the vector(wᵢ) through the hidden layers it is going to automatically calculate the linear transformation for us. In other words, it takes from 784 neurons (input in fc1) to 265 neurons (output in fc1).

The forward function communicates that this is the feedforward section of our neural network. The x.view(x.shape [0], -1) makes sure that the input tensor is flattened which means reshapes the input tensor to have a shape that is equal to the number of elements contained in the tensor that is used in the calculations.

Under the forward function, we are taking the different values from the outputs of each layer and putting them into a ReLu (rectified linear unit) function, which is a nonlinear function does the same action as sigmoid of taking the weighted sum and turning it into a number between 0 and 1, but it turns out the ReLu has an easier and faster training process than sigmoid so we used ReLu instead.

We want the output of our network to be a probability distribution that gives us the probability that the image belongs to one of our classes. To create this probability distribution we use the softmax function. Similar to the sigmoid function it squishes each of the input values x between 0 and 1, but the big upside is that it normalizes all the values of the sum of each of the probabilities is 1. This makes it so we can see our accuracy out of 100%, giving us the ability to have a probability distribution.

The Dimension (dim=1)makes it so that it calculates the function across the columns and instead of the rows. The reason we want this to happen is that we have a batch of examples (images from our dataset) that we are passing through our network and each row is one of those examples so, we want to make sure that we’re calculating the softmax function across each of our examples and not across each feature in our batches.

At the start, before we train our network our probability looks like this. Without the training, our network is randomly assigning equal probability to all of our classes because it has not yet seen the data for it to be able to recognize the number.

How Our Model Starts to Learn

The machine does this through something called a loss function sometimes also called the cost. It is simply a measure of the prediction error. If we have an image of a skirt and our model predicts it incorrectly, we want to measure how far away our network prediction is from the correct label. This can be done using the loss function.

The loss value depends on the output of our network, which is based on weight (like network parameters). So we can adjust our weights so that our loss is minimized. When we have a low loss value then we know that our network is making as good predictions as it can.

This happens through a process called gradient descent. The gradient is the slope of the loss function. Our gradient always points in the direction of the fastest change. So imagine you are on the mountain you made it to the top and it is not time to come back down. Your goal is to get off of the mountain as fast as you can. Below are the possible directions you could go.

With the goal of going down as fast as possible you need you will go directly down. It is the same thing with our gradient descent, but for the gradient which points upwards we take the negative of it take us downwards. The further down we go the lower our loss function gets making it our model have a better ability to predict the images that we provide it.

One issue that you can come across is your gradient can be taking steps so large it ends up bouncing around the trough and never reaching the local minimum within the graph (picture on the right side). This is have something called a learning rate. Which is our restriction on how fast the negative gradient can be to ensure it is not bouncing around and hits the local minimum without much difficulty.

Below we see the model, which is just the name of class. NN.NLLLoss gives us our cost and then we use optimizers which are algorithms or methods used to change the attributes of the neural network (weights and learning rate) to reduce the cost in our model.

When we train our network we have epochs or the number of cycles that a neural network has went through training data. The images are being used as the input values. The criterion is calculating our loss.

Our optimizer says zero_grad() because PyTorch by default accumulates gradients that means if you do multiple forward passes (process of going from input to output in a neural network) and multiple backward passes (by using gradient descent to calculate our cost, then using optimizers to reduce our cost), when calculating you are gradients it’s is going to keep summing up those gradients.

If you don’t clear your gradients then you are going to be getting gradients from the previous training step along with the one in your current training step. This ends with your network not training properly, so make sure to you zero_grad().

Then we go through the loss.backward to calculate our gradient and we are taking an optimizer step allowing us to train our model. After only 5 cycles of training, our model was able to confidently predict what they image was.

How do Neural Networks Work?

Fri, 07 May 2021 00:00:00 GMT

A Neural Network is a computerized system that loosely models the brain. You could think of it as a network of neurons that takes an input and produces an output.

Now imagine we have a 28 x 28-pixel image that take handwritten images and classifies which number they are. We can see that the number below is a 9, but how can the neural network “learn” to classify these numbers.

In this image every pixel corresponds to a single neuron. Each of the 784 neurons has a grayscale value between 0 and 1. Where 0 is black and 1 is white, and anything is between 0 and 1 is a shade of gray. This is also referred to as its activation.

We will be using an input layer, an output layer, and 2 hidden layers. The reason they are called hidden layers is that they are not directly observable from the input and output layers.

This final layer is what our system thinks the value of the handwritten digit is. In the beginning, it is consistently wrong because it has no idea how to classify number. As our model receives more training data it improves its ability to recognize handwritten digits.

The heart of the neural network is that each layer affects the activation of the neurons in the next layers. Each of these yellow lines we will assign a weight it. The weight is a numerical value to represent that the strength of the connections between neurons from one layer to another.

Now we take the activation and the weights of each neuron and compute its weighted sum. Which looks something like this.

What it means is that take the weight (the strength of the connection) and multiply by the activation (the grayscale value) of the input neurons. We do that with all 784 neurons and we get a weighted sum for a single neuron in the next layer.

As a result, you might come out with a number outside the range of 0 and 1. The problem with the weight sum is that it is usually out the range between 0 and 1 which makes does not work because our activations only between 0 and 1.

A common function that takes our weighted sum value and turns it into a number between 0–1 is called a sigmoid function, or a logistic curve. Where our very negative weights end up close to 0 and our very positive values end up close to 1. The sigmoid function is said to be an outdated function and Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) is more common because it was easier to train your model on it. So the activation of the neuron in the next layer is essentially the measure of how positive the relevant weight sum is.

Now, what if you don’t want just any neuron above 0 to light up or activate? what if you want a specific value before it neuron gets meaningfully active. For this, we have a bias that acts as a neuron threshold. If a neuron does not have a value above the threshold it won’t activate at all.

This bias is applied to our weighted sum before we apply the sigmoid function to reduce its value to be in the range of 0 to 1.

With this hidden layer of 16 neurons we have 784 neurons x 16 weights with 16 biases. All of that is just the connections between the first and second layers. When you count the other layers you will have a total of 13,002 weights and biases. All of which can be tweaked and turned to make this network behave in different ways.

When we talk about network learning then it is about finding the right weights and biases to find the right mix of all of them to classify our input properly.

With this knowledge, we can think of a neuron as a function that takes the outputs of the previous layer and creates an output of a number between 0 and 1.

TLDR

Neural Network is a network of neurons.
Each neuron has a value called an activation that is between 0 and 1.
The connection between a neuron from 1 layer to another is called a weight.
When you take the activation and weights from each neuron in 1 layer you produce a weighted sum that affects the activation of the neuron in the next layer.

Creating Self-Healing Roads

Thu, 29 Apr 2021 00:00:00 GMT

We have all experienced driving on bad roads, whether it be through potholes, road cracks, or a horrendous bumpy ride on the way to your favorite ice cream shop.

In Canada and the United States, 43% of roads and highways show significant deterioration, and 15% are defined as barely serviceable, or in need of urgent replacement. To repair all of them, it would cost a combined total of $545 billion. Not to mention that around the world, potholes cause more than 42,000 deaths per year.

To put this into perspective, we are sending rocket ships to space, but we can’t even maintain our own roads? At Rever, we are creating the solution to fix this extremely costly and destructive problem.

Why Are Current Roads So Bad?

In Canada and the US 90+% of roads are made of asphalt mixtures, which are made of 30–50% water. In winter, the water freezes creating ice. The ice expands the asphalt as it takes more space than the original water. When the warm weather comes, the ice melts creating a gap within the asphalt, allowing the formation of small microcracks when the road is subjected to heavy traffic loads.

While our roads don’t become unusable after a single winter, they experience compounded damage over multiple years. Since damage begins to build up years before it becomes noticeable, the accepted approach of doing maintenance after problems occur is highly ineffective; not to mention extremely costly and time-intensive.

Solution: Self-Healing roads

Self-healing roads have the potential to increase road lifespans from 40 years to 80 years (2x improvement). With our steel fiber asphalt and induction machines, we can save the government around the world up to $1.1 trillion(or $28,125 per mile)per year.

Current asphalt roads already have self-healing properties, but they require long rest times. To accelerate this self-healing process we need a high temperature. To increase our asphalt temperature we will be adding steel fibers and using induction heating.

The reason we are using steel fibers is that they conduct heat 106 times more effectively than asphalt. These steel fibers pass on their heat to asphalt enabling better and faster healing. This specific metal was chosen as it was highly conductive without being a burden on our manufacturing costs (explain in “cost” section).

Induction heating involves the process of using a magnet to rapidly heat up a metal (in our case steel fibers). This happens by using an induction machine to drive over the asphalt. This process involves sending an electric current through a series of coils, resulting in a magnetic field. The magnetic field heats up molecules within a ferromagnetic metal (a substance that is highly susceptible to magnetization)- in this case, the steel fibers.

The reason we are heating steel fibers (a conductive metal) is because they transmit more heat to asphalt than if we asphalt did not have steel fibers. We heat the asphalt due to the research of Qiu et al that demonstrated that asphalt healing was dependant on two variables: time (rest periods) and temperature. The following graph shows his results using 2 different asphalt mixtures in 3 different temperatures.

Self-healing results of PBmas (asphalt mastic mix containing limestone filler and 70/100 penetration of bitumen) and SBSmas (asphalt mastic mix containing limestone filler and bitumen modified with styrene-butadiene-styrene polymer)

Through this experiment, we can see that the higher temperature results in faster and more effective heating of asphalt. When heat is applied to asphalt it makes the material more malleable creating a gel state allowing recovery from structural damage which is called the thixotropic effect.

According to the research of Liu et al, the optimal heat to be applied to the steel fiber asphalt is 85°C and if it is anything over 110°C it causes adverse effects on the quality of asphalt and its performance.

According to the research of Mallick et al, high temperatures close surface cracks but dissipate quickly throughout the pavement. This means that cracks 20–30 mm below the pavement surface are not reachable by current induction heating methods. As a result, it does not heal and these deep cracks reappear at lower temperatures or because of heavy traffic loading.

This means that we have to rebuild roads with our steel fiber material (when the lifespan of a normal road is done) to ensure these cracks never happen in the first place. The induction machine to create the induction heating will be used over roads every 2–4 depending on weather conditions as a preventative measure for cracks and potholes.

Results

According to research at the University of Granada in Spain, they found that we can take a fresh crack and heal it within 3 hours.

Results of self-healing road after exposure to induction heating University of Granada

Without the induction machine, this crack would open up more over time and it would only get fixed when the problem is costly and time-intensive.

The process is technically not entirely “self-healing” because we need an outside force (electromagnetism caused by the induction machine)to initiate the healing process, however, it is highly effective and sufficiently cheaper than closing the road for a temporary patch or a new road entirely, a process which takes days or weeks to complete.

The Gap We are Bridging

It seems pretty clear from the research above, that induction heating with steel fibers in asphalt will create better road conditions by acting as a proactive measure so road deterioration does not happen.

You might be asking “If it is so obvious why is this not on every road?” Even though this technology has been around for at least 10 years, there is NOBODY that is mass-producing or mass-distributing the needed materials. At Rever, our goal is to commercialize these products to make your next ride that much smoother.

Economic Incentive

Erik Schlangen, a materials scientist with over 25 years of experience has conducted research that predicts this self-healing road technology can increase the lifespan of roads up to 2 times.

On average, $2.9 trillion is spent yearly on rebuilding roads based on ($3 million per mile). With self-healing roads lasting 2x longer, we stand to save $1.1 trillion/year on construction efforts from governments. Keep in mind we are not taking into account the extra amount that governments need to pay to fix normal roads. This would create an even larger saving amount (since our roads will not have potholes or cracks).

Cost

You might be wonder about the prices of these products. The induction machine costs about $500,000 and the asphalt costs $120 per tonne. This might sound like a lot but imagine that had 20 miles of our roads for 10 years generating you $28,125/mile/per year in savings (in road longevity). Overall you would get $5,625,000. Now let’s factor in the cost of the steel asphalt mixture.

In the U.S interstate highway (which are much larger than normal roads) have a 3.7m road width with 4.5 inches deep with 20 miles costs. Using this tonnage calculator this highway would need 36,053 tonnes of our asphalt mixture costing $4,326,375 + $500,000 (for the induction machine). Overall it would cost $4,826,375 to maintain the road saving that city’s government $798,625 for 20 miles.

Keep in mind that this also factors in a width of a road that is larger than most urban inter-city roads. This is meant to represent a bad case scenario but governments still came out positive.

So, if you are tired of driving on bad roads, get excited for us to make your next ride that much smoother.

Cultivating Our Worldview With Habits

Sun, 31 Jan 2021 00:00:00 GMT

Ever got into an argument with a friend about who was right? You kept fighting about some tiny meaningless detail that doesn’t even matter. Regardless of who was right, this scene is an example of the inability to accept the thoughts of others. Even when what the other person said is crazy, something like “Gravity is not real” (this example was obnoxious on purpose). The majority if not all of you would say that gravity is real, so you would probably end up dismissing the thought of the other person because you have conviction you are right but have we tried to understand what the other person was thinking or where they were coming from? Most likely not.

Throughout our everyday lives, we all have a lens through to understand the world. Call it a model, a world view, or any other label that fits your thinking. To no fault of your own, you grow up learning the model of your parents or siblings as you are still too young to start articulating your thoughts about the world. As a child the only things that matter to you are what Tom and Jerry are up to today, the sneak attack to start spraying your family with nerf guns, and how unlucky you are to not get access to the cookie jar on Christmas mornings (likely because of the nerf guns).

“I failed biology is a lot different than I failed my parents. The first one’s a fact, the second one’s a story. I’m an alcoholic is a lot different than no one will trust me again. The first one’s a fact, the second one’s a story. The stories tend to take the facts and twist them into an extremely negative and unrealistic situation. Listen to yourself and see what stories that are holding you back.” — Neil Pasricha

What this happiness expert describes is something called the spotlight effect, where when we hesitate our brains perceive it as a threat no matter what it is. You could be about to ask a question in a meeting and you hesitate because of what others will think of you. As it is your brain’s job to protect you, our brain magnifies risk to you pulls you away from something (because it perceived it as a risk), even though it is not something that is threatening to you in any way.

Now this story that you tell yourself is an integral part of your worldview because of course, you are at the center of your universe. Understanding your story is a great first step to understanding yourself. Whether you think you are not thin enough, not smart enough, or not good enough. None of that is true. To first explore the reason why all of these ideas are false is that there is no right answer.

If you think you are not thin enough, think to yourself “Why do I think this?” You would probably come out with the idea of social norms are what put you up to that thought. In reality, you don’t care about your weight as much as you care about your perception in front of others. In this mode you thinking, you end up judging yourself (with your thoughts) so much more harshly than people would.

Reality check: PEOPLE DON’T CARE

Everyone is so worried about their insecurities that they don’t have the time to be caring about the insecurities of others. Take some time to think, why it is so important to be extremely thin (almost model-like)? What does it provide you? Does it even matter? This narrative that you create for yourself often what you will end up manifesting that narrative. If you believe you are a dumb, uneducated clown then everything you do will align with that narrative unless you have a major identity shift. If you think that you going to be the successful CEO of a new startup that will happen. Just to be clear this is not the law of attraction, where if you think of something then it will happen. The missing step in that thought is acting in favor of the person you want to be. You won’t be a professional soccer player if you keep thinking “I will be a professional soccer player.”What has to go along with it are actions that would help manifest that thought of the ideal situation for you. In this example, you would need to find the best soccer players, practice specific skills trying to emulate them, improving your diet, etc.

There are times where what we want to do with our lives (or passion) is not certain, we have no idea what we are doing and where we are going. That’s okay too, your worldview is a strong participant in creating that. Knowing our world view creates much less difficulty in discovering your passion, the things you do in support of your world view start slowly leading you to what makes sense for you. Often when you don’t mention your worldview explicitly (out loud), you have a weak grasp how what makes sense for you to do. You could be studying emerging technologies, going through hours of game theory, and writing a little bit every day. Maybe none of that stuff makes sense to you as your world view doesn’t take the things I just mentioned as important.

When in the process of creating your world view. It is not about trying to start from scratch. On your own without any experience, you likely don’t have good models from your head, you start by understanding the scope of the ideas of some of the most articulate people over the history of humanity. You could go explore Sigmund Freud, Karl Marx, Marcius Arreilaus, Socrates. These people reached a point in their thinking where they were able to articulate some of their thoughts that you can not. The point is not to be a sheep and just follow all of their ideas. You should be taking bits and pieces of what makes sense to you and how you want to live your life.

You don’t have to agree with Freud that all your drives are sexual and you don’t have to agree with Marx on whether we should abandon democracy, The idea is to fill your mind with a lot of thoughts, from which you pick and chose the ones you agree with to form your world view. From then forward you understand what living a good life means to you. We often don’t listen to ourselves on what we want. We desire the things that seem to be glamorous, but we don’t know that we don’t want them.

Creating and explicitly describing what your worldview provides you with clarity with what things you should be intentional about. The intentional life is what ultimately helps you create fulfillment, while the non-intentional life is a life filled with only short-term activities that don’t build too much in the future. Avoiding acting in favor of your id (it’s a Freud thing) where we act within our desires and respond to our immediate urges without any consideration of the consequences after when living such a life.

Usually, the people who tend to live unfulfilling lives are the ones that don’t give themselves the reason for what they do. They work a job they hate, complain about it to other people, and they wonder where it all went wrong. This all stems from the lack of awareness of their world view, lack of intention, and a generally poor mindset about a lot of things.

In your process of self-exploration, sitting alone with your thoughts and keep challenging them. What you are challenging your habits, which are a huge contributor to your identity. The more you do a specific action, the more reinforcement you create, the more you identify with doing these actions. If you constantly avoid doing the difficult things in your life, you reinforce the concept that you are not up for your challenges. These actions are extremely difficult to disrupt as we are naturally inclined to act in favor of our identity.

What Can You do?

In the process of building your new identity, one where you are okay with being wrong and focusing on growing things in terms of thinking and knowledge you need to start creating habits. These habits are the foundations of your life that allow you to live to your full potential (assuming you have beneficial habits rather than non-beneficial habits). You might be thinking that when you have a life with habits, it is boring because you keep reliving the same day over and over, in reality, this isn’t the case.

Every day we wake up with a certain amount of mental resources, this can depend on how much we slept, our emotional state, etc. The important part of habits is that it takes unimportant tasks makes them unconscious and thereby taking minimal if any mental resources to perform the task. The act of thinking whether you workout today. Whether you should have coffee or tea. Whether you should work you should work on the project or the assignment.

All of these activities hinder you throughout the rest of the day, you are using valuable mental resources trying to decide what is the correct decision to make. When you have already decided that you workout Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, you will drink tea on workout days, and have the project as a priority one. You allow yourself to focus on the things that are difficult and require lots of thinking, like trying to understand a physics research paper when half the words aren’t English.

In James Clear’s book Atomic Habits. He describes the process of habits as follows

Step 1: Cue

Step 2: Craving

Step 3: Response

Step 4: Reward

The cue triggers a craving, which motivates a response, which provides a reward, which satisfies the craving and ultimately becomes associated with a cue.

For a more concrete explanation, imagine you working on your desk, your work environment is clean, you vibing to the silence of your room and you are in flow, you are super focused and you are extremely productive. All of the sudden you the sound of notification. You start getting curious so you open your phone, you read the message, and you get back to work. That doesn’t sound so bad right? You only stopped working for 10 seconds, big deal. Wait…it is a big deal. In reality, this is what happened.

Step 1: Your phone buzzing was a cue

Step 2: The cue created a craving to see the contents of the notification

Ste 3: Your curiosity for the craving made you respond by grabbing your phone

Step 4: You are satisfied (rewarded) that you had a response to satisfy a craving.

End Result: grabbing your phone is associated with your phone buzzing

Over time this habit keeps getting reinforced again and again. It became such a common behavior that you don’t’ even realize it anymore. As you accumulate one bad habit after another the short-term feedback won’t tell you much, but with the time you will recognize that where you are is nowhere near the person you want to be and you wonder where it all went wrong.

Usually when we want to solve this short-term problem when we still have the power to stop the bad habit in its tracks we result in goals. That doesn’t sound so bad, we create goals, and then we do it right? The model in itself is a little bit faulty, I want you to think of new year’s day when you wake up in the afternoon after staying up till 3 am. You say to yourself, “I want to lose X pounds, I want to stop eating sugary foods and get back to playing guitar. The first couple of days, you do it just fine you act out what your goals say.” Fast forward a few weeks, you return to binging Netflix, not going to the gym, and letting yourself go because you don’t feel like it and you repeat the whole process year after year till you give up and you think that you can no longer change.

I would say you went about the whole process wrong. Here is what most people don’t realize about goals: they are an outcome. We often fail to understand that outcome is not what we need, we need a process or plan to execute. Think of Dwayne Johnson, do you think he randomly woke up one day and looked like this?

Of course not. The reason why that is so difficult to get through our heads because all we see is the snapshot of the outcome. Dwayne Johnson did his first workout when he was 12 years old, he is currently 48. This means that he, more or less, worked out for 36 years. Are you willing to put in that much time to look like that? Are you willing to pay that price? In reality, only a few people, would put that much effort to get that snapshot of glory. This is not just with exercise. This principle happens in other situations too. Athletes put time into training, entrepreneurs work for 5+ years before they start seeing results, Warren Buffet doesn’t invest so he can give investors a quarterly gain, he acts in the interest of providing gain over 50+ years. Which is an important factor why is currently the 7th wealthiest man on the planet.

So get it out of your head that you will find success in the short-term change you need to fundamentally change who you are, in this process you first need to understand that there are 3 different types of change. There is a change of outcome, process, and identity.

The change in outcomes is trying to change for the result. This is usually what we form our goals around. The problem here is we never actually plan when and how we are going to do it. This is the reason new year’s resolutions don’t usually work. If you set out what you want to do with an actual method of getting or making that habit more likely.

“A dream written down with a date becomes a goal a goal broken down into steps becomes a plan a plan backed by action makes your dreams a reality”

— Greg Reid

When you don’t make a plan every thought you had about the things you wanted to desperately do, but somehow never had the time for. In reality you always have the ability to do it you are just unaware of how to start. When you spend time thinking about how you can achieve whatever it is you set out to achieve you need a plan of action of how you are going to learn and gain mastery in whatever you want to do.

In 2001, researchers in Great Britain began working with everyday people to help them build better exercise habits over two weeks. The subjects were divided into three groups. The first group was the control group. They were simply asked to track how often they exercised.

The second group was the “motivation” group. They were asked not only to track their workouts but also to read some material on the benefits of exercise. The researchers also explained to the group how exercise could reduce the risk of coronary heart disease and improve heart health.

Finally, there was the third group. These subjects received the same presentation as the second group, which ensured that they had equal levels of motivation. However, they were also asked to formulate a plan for when and where they would exercise over the following week. Specifically, each member of the third group completed the following sentence: “During the next week, I will partake in at least 20 minutes of vigorous exercise on [DAY] at [TIME] in [PLACE].”After receiving these instructions, all three groups left.

The Surprising Results: Motivation vs. Intention

In the first and second groups, 35 to 38 percent of people exercised at least once per week. (Interestingly, the motivational presentation given to the second group seemed to have no meaningful impact on behavior.) But 91 percent of the third group exercised at least once per week — more than double the normal rate.

Simply by writing down a plan that said exactly when and where they intended to exercise, the participants in Group 3 were much more likely to follow through. Crazy, right? All you have to do is write down when and where you plan to something and you are going to follow through with it. This is exactly what I mean by the process, the way to achieve your outcome.

The process of the third group is something called implementation intentions. Following the formula of “I will {behaviour} at {time} in {location}. Some examples include: I will meditate at 7 am in my room. I will study for math at 6 pm in the living room. I will work out at 8 pm in the gym.

As you take your outcome of change (your goals) turn them into a process (plan), now you start going into identity. Identity emerges from habit, everything you do is conditioned through experience. For example, when you make your bed in the morning you embody someone who is organized. When you write each day you embody someone who is a creative person. When you train each day you embody someone who is an athletic person. The more you repeat a behavior, the more you reinforce the identity associated with that behavior. When you reinforce good habits it becomes part of who you are and you always work in favor of your identity more than anything else.

In the process of habit formation many of us believe that some people are just more motivated or have more willpower than us. As Mel Robbins, author of The 5 Second Rule says “Motivation is garbage because we all bought into the lie that we need to feel like it to do something.” Sure, it would be preferable to have to have excitement rather than dread before you do something. The problem with needing to feel like makes it really difficult to gain mastery in any subject matter due to the focus being on nuances rather than complete sets of information or skills. There are many times where you need to do boring or mundane tasks to keep going that are not very exciting to do. If you want to achieve your potential you need to be okay with doing things that you don’t feel like doing for the greater good of yourself and your end goals. So now you might be asking “What should I do with my worldview?”As you start forming the thoughts based on the articulate people and taking the parts you like while getting rid of the parts you don’t want. You will have a model of what makes sense in the world, with this knowledge you create your ideal person of who you want to be. From that, you can start to reverse engineer how you could become that person. You create your goals, which you turn into a process, and through action start associating with your identity. Assuming that you followed the actions and habits of the person you want to be, you slowly will emerge out of it with a passion that you feel is worth spending your time on.

Understanding Our Emotions

Sun, 24 Jan 2021 00:00:00 GMT

How are you?

Really. Not “I’m fine,” or “I’m good,” or “I’m okay.” Does that really describe how you feel? The problem with this answer is it is not at all descriptive of how you are actually doing. With an answer like that can you really tell if someone is doing well? Probably not.

Emotions can often be a very difficult thing to control and rightly so. Your amygdala, which is your emotional control center, has been around longer than your ability to rationally think and contemplate things. With this as an anchor, there is no wonder that you constantly get frustrated, angry, or have many moments where you are no longer in control of yourself.

What I’m referring to is being in “the heat of the moment.” You say things you don’t mean, you act in a way you never do, you are no longer _you, y_ou become a whole different animal. This is like children who have no sense of control and always act on impulse without any consideration of the consequences of their reactions. With a little bit of guidance and time, the child can control their impulses to a considerably decent degree.

Now think of your emotions the same way: an impulse. In the beginning, it takes you over and you are not in control of yourself, and with a little bit of guidance and time, you can overpower your emotions and become in charge of your own reactions. Similar to trying to stop impulsiveness of children, it is not that simple.

The main problem for many of us when dealing with these emotions is we lack the concept of how to deal with them. If every time we feel stress, anxiety, anger, or sadness we start eating junk food, watching Netflix, and going on social media. Your negative emotional state is going to last for way longer than we expect and definitely way more than we would’ve liked. In the short term, we will be “okay” (whatever that means), but long term we are setting ourselves up for failure.

These typical reactions to what we deem as negative emotions are only quick fixes that negatively impact us in the future. Generally, the reason the emotional intelligence of people is so extremely low is that we are simply unaware beings. Anthony De Mello’s book Awareness has a great thought on this matter.

“Most people, even though they don’t know it, are asleep. They’re born asleep, they live asleep, they marry in their sleep, they breed children in their sleep, they die in their sleep without ever waking up. They never understand the loveliness and the beauty of this thing that we call human existence.”

In this quote, he is referring to awareness. If I ask “Who is you?” (philosophy behind this question and phrasing here) how would you reply? The point is not to talk about your school, your work, your projects. What is it that makes you who you are? What makes you special? Many of us would get stuck humming and hawing before we give some sort of non-generic and surface-level answer. Now let’s think about the fact we don’t really understand who we are as people, how do we think we can control something as complex as our emotions without ever understanding who we are people?

It Starts With The Phrasing

We usually say “I am sad” or “I am depressed” without realizing it, you are characterizing your identity (who you are). When you say “I am ___ “ you are asserting the idea that whatever you put in the blank space as something that defines you, which builds your identity. You can think of identity almost like an instruction manual, whenever we feel lost or not sure whether we are doing the right thing, we consult it and use its rules and abide by them.

Now again when we say “I am sad.” Being sad becomes part of our manual, making it more likely to be sad on any given day just because it is associated with who we are, but of course as it is with any other habit you need reinforcement to make it take. You say these ideas enough times, you create a strong association with that we tend to believe it can’t be any other way.

Reframing Our View of The Self

An important distinction to get right from the start is that your emotions are not you. Think of your entire life as 2 separate entities (to be honest there are probably 100 versions of every single person, but bear with me), there is observer you and normal you. With normal you, is the person whose perspective you are using right now.

On the other hand, observer you is an entity that is probably new to you. As the name suggests, it observes, but instead of observing the world, it observes normal you as an outsider (keep in mind it is an abstract concept). The point of this observer is to be able to look at normal you from an outside perspective. During observation, normal you can be seen sometimes reacting, acting, or simply not acting.

When you think of yourself in that lens you can start to recognize the trigger that make you angry, scared, or any other emotion. You also get to view yourself in a momentary lapse in judgement which helps you recognize that whatever emotion you feel at any given time does not define you. The separation from yourself and your emotion is to helping you navigate your emotional force field.

Understanding Lapses in Judgement

Think of that friend, family, or partner. You felt like they wronged you in some way. Without even trying to understand their perspective, you go into a field of rage and anger. You do everything in your power to let the other person know how much you distrust them, how much you hate them, how bad of a person you think they are. At that moment we all feel like we are correct and all of our actions are justified. The thing that you don’t realize is that none of your actions were even chosen by you, if anything we brainwashed ourselves into believing that our actions were caused by our own thinking, we were merely reacting, we had absolutely no control of that situation, but we were too unaware to realize it.

When you start understanding that your emotional reaction does not represent who you are, you are well on your way to overcome these emotional tantrums. A key question to ask yourself is “Why am I feeling this way?” More often than not you will realize that anger is often second emotion, this means the reason you are angry is because of another emotion. Think of someone who broke your heart. One day out of nowhere…it’s over. You could not foresee it, you could not imagine it, this was not a thought in your wildest dreams, but it happened. You are so hurt by that situation that you became angry. The action in itself was not what made you angry, how you felt as a result of that action is what took you over.

Not to mention that there could be many underlying problems in this situation, whether that be previous trauma, bad situations, lack of love from the people around you. As difficult as it is to admit we all have some sort of problem. We constantly avoid thinking about it because we don’t want to see what is on the other side. We are so scared of that reality that is right next door because we think that we can’t handle it. Often times, the perceived risk is never as bad as the actual risk. Acknowledging the problem is the first step on your journey of self emotional understanding.

I know this isn’t what you want to hear but it is the truth, don’t let yourself get sucked into the victim mentality, the one where you feel like you are not good enough for things, where you reject yourself before others do. Don’t let yourself be held back by your fears. The reason we are so emotional is that our fear is the one guiding it in the background. After a break up our worst fears are realized that fact that we are alone and it feels like there is no there for us. There are times when we get angry because we are hurt, our fear here is the idea the nobody ever loved us (not necessarily a relationship). There are so many examples where our emotional reactions are guided by a fear that we subconsciously know is there, but we never seem to give ourselves time to acknowledge it.

So until we let go of the idea that everything is okay (all the time) and that you have problems everything will start opening up. This is not some thought that comes and goes, this thought can haunt you for your entire life. You already know your fears and don’t think you can BS yourself, you know that there is a problem, you just need to admit it and take action. After taking action and tackling your fear, you take away the fuel to your emotions. When you reach a point where you dealt with your issues, your identity does not need to be defended, no need to hesitate, nobody to hide who you really are. That in its own right is one of the most freeing things you can do.

There is no feeling like it. Words can’t articulate or give this feeling justice. Once your reach that point, you will know that emotion is no longer something that controls you. Understanding emotions is not necessarily a difficult task, we often fail to realize the actual root cause and we take things at face value, it is crazy to think you can solve such a large overarching problem by just fixing the immediate issue. There is always a long term issue that is occupying our minds. We never leave ourselves with time to think. There is always stress from the job, your family obligations, school, etc. This can’t interfere with you time.

“All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s [or women’s] inability to sit quietly in a room alone,”- Blaise Pascal.

In this day and age that thought has never been more true. With the age of phones allowing you to see what someone else is doing at any given moment, hustle culture where people are grinding so much that they are destroying their own mental health, and everyone fostering sheep mentality, we sometimes don’t even know what thoughts are our own and which of those belong to others.

To be honest, a lot of your problems can get fixed this way, it is really interesting seeing the effect of thinking about important principles of your life and allowing yourself not to be influenced by other people. Your thoughts are precious, don’t let people corrupt your thinking with shallows ideals and everything that goes into wasting your potential as a person. Your potential is not how much money you can make, or how many followers you have, or how much swag you own. You need to let go of the things you know don’t matter to you. I know there is the fear of social displacement in there, that’s why you still haven’t let go of these ideals, but trust me, a year from now you will be thanking yourself for the change you made today.

The Perfect Conversation Starter

Sat, 02 Jan 2021 00:00:00 GMT

When we meet people for the first time, we often are not sure how to start off conversation to have a meaningful conversation. We often go through small talk which is dreadful for everyone involved.

Remember all of those times you are in middle of a conversation and an awkward silence breaks loose? Both of you are internally panicking as you both say “um” and “uh” as you try to find something to continue your conversation.

In this situation people would often think that conversation was bad because the other person was kinda dry, or the general topic wasn’t interesting. Usually we think that it is the immediate previous thought that lead to both of us experiencing an awkward silence.

Even though you think this, it is far from reality (in most cases). In reality the reason you ended up with awkward silence is because you had a bad conversation starter, the small talk usually to more uninteresting things to talk about and eventually you reach a point where conversation doesn’t even make sense to continue.

This all starts with “Can you tell me a little bit about yourself?” The one line that we say at the start of every conversation.

Whether you are the one asking or the one on the receiving end of that question, everyone usually has something to say. This could be their interests, projects they have been working on, favorite shows, etc.

It can often be very difficult to continue on conversation after the other person reciprocates the same question as it feels like you have nothing to say. You reach a point of awkward mental panic as you not really sure how to proceed about your conversation.

After stringing together some “hums” and hahs” to fill the silence you finally start talking about the whether (really? the whether? That is the best you can come up with?).

The problem here is that both people were disengaged from the start. You followed convention and never really thought about how to proceed within a conversation.

Taking a step back and looking at the question you just asked. “Can you tell me a little bit about yourself?” That is a terrible question. Why?

To understand, think of yourself every time you answer that question. “I am a {insert grade} and I like to {insert interest}…”

You already know what your answer is before you are asked that question and vice-versa. As you answer the question you lack the enthusiasm to seem like you are interested in your own words. To be honest, I would lack the enthusiasm if I had to repeat the same answer time and time again.

Not to mention to mention that absolutely nobody is interested what grade you are in, it doesn’t mean anything, it is content that tells the other person absolutely nothing about you.

Both of you become bored and disengaged from the start as both of you just dumped some things you would normally put in your bio that both of you don’t really care for.

The problem here is not the answer that you (or they gave), it is the question that was asked was terrible.

Imagine a scenario where you don’t ask a question at all, then there is nothing to prompt an answer. Questions are what give the other person the parameters for the answer. You questions dictate the answer that you get.

“So…What is conversation starting question then?”

Answer: Who Is You?

Really? That is the magic question? These are probably some of your thoughts as you take a look at this question, and I already know that you have some concerns regarding this question, so I decided to address to express why this question is so powerful.

Concern #1

Is that not the exact same thing as “Tell me a bit about yourself”? Won’t they end up just using the same 2 lines that we would get from the first question?

The difference with this question is that the purpose of the question is changed. Instead of asking for a quick description as if it was a government official. You really look into who that person is, not what they do. You look at what makes someone who they are.

This way you are diving past small talk and you get into deeper layer of conversation.

As a first reaction people tend to take a second to think because this is a question they have not been asked before. People usually mention “I was not prepared for this.” That question woke them up from their sleepy state (metaphorically) and just made them extremely interested in what you have to say.

Imagine that, from a single question, you went from “random person” to the “I wanna talk to them person.”

Concern #2:

Why don’t you ask “Who are you”? It is the same thing and it makes more sense grammatically.

Even though it is grammatically wrong, “Who is you?” is a better question because you are asking what does it mean to be {insert person’s name}.

“Who is you?” is different from “Who are you?” through the manner the question it is proposed. When you use “are,” the implication suggests that something is wrong with you, or that you have been deceiving of some sort, which is a message that doesn’t look too good when you first talk to someone.

TL;DR

Ask “Who is you?” at the start of conversations and avoid questions that cause people to be disengaged.

Deutsch-Jozsa Algorithm

Sun, 27 Dec 2020 00:00:00 GMT

Before we try to understand this quantum algorithm, let’s understand what is the general purpose of a computer to see the significance of this algorithm.

A computer is a physical device that helps us process information by executing algorithms. An algorithm is a set of instructions given to a computer in order to solve a problem.

Algorithms are measured based on the number of resources that are used by a computer in order to solve a problem. Resources can be defined in two ways: time and space.

Time: how long it takes to perform the computation.

Space: Amount of memory used by the computer in performing the computation.

For certain problems, quantum computers are able to clearly outperform classical computers. What makes this algorithm so significant is that it is one of the first concrete representations of the power of a quantum vs a classical computer.

Important Concepts to Understand

1. Computational basis states

Classical computers have bits of information, the state of a bit is a number (0 or 1). On the other hand, the state of a qubit is a vector, more specifically, the state of a qubit is a vector in a two-dimensional vector space. This two-level system allows for what is called a quantum superposition, to be brief it is the ability to be two states at the same time, for a deeper explanation click here. Below is the representation of the 0 and 1 as vectors.

You might be wondering why 0 is written as ∣0⟩ or why 1 written ∣1⟩. These special states are called computational basis states.

It’s tempting to see the ∣0⟩ notation and wonder what all the separate pieces mean — what, for instance, does the |mean; what does the ⟩ mean; and so on?

In fact, it’s best to regard ∣0⟩ as a single symbol, standing for a single mathematical object — that vector we just saw above. The | and ⟩ don’t really have separate meanings except to signify this is a quantum state.

2. Normalization

In quantum systems, in order to create the computation, we need to manipulate their quantum state in a controlled fashion which is difficult to do since qubits are so unstable.

An important axiom (or principal) is that all qubit states are normalized, this means that the state of the system is kept at length 1. When you preserve length 1 throughout you are making sure no information is lost in the computation. When you lose information, your system falls apart due to the reliance of qubits on each other through quantum entanglement.

Normalization through the sum of squares of the amplitudes. For example, for the state 0.6∣0⟩ + 0.8∣1⟩, the amplitudes (coefficients) are the number that are outside the computational basis states. The sum of the squares of the amplitudes is 0.⁶²+0.⁸², which is 0.36+0.64 = 1, as we desired.

Speaking more generally, the amplitudes can be complex numbers, which are conventionally denoted by α and _β s_o the state is α∣0⟩+β∣1⟩. The constraint is now that the sum of the squares of the amplitudes is 1, i.e. ∣α∣²+∣β∣²=1.

3. Unitary Operators

It turns out that unitary operators represented by matrices preserve the length of their inputs. If we go back to the importance of normalization so we don’t lose our quantum information, unitary operators help us get there. In the coming algorithm, it is an important idea to helps us solve this circuit.

4. Reversibility

Reversibility is when based on the output of a gate, we can determine what the inputs are. When we are in a position where we can not reverse output it means that we lost information making our quantum computer or quantum system not work in the desired manner. Our qubits becoming scrambled and unprotected, rendering this process an error.

Below is the example of a classical NOT gate that simply reverses our input.

This circuit is reversible because when we look at our output 0 we will get 1 and if our output is 1 then our input is 0.

If you look below we have the AND gate which is not reversible.

If we have the output 1 then we know that A and B have to be 1. The problem here is we have the output 0 then it could be any of the 3 combinations for the example of a 2-bit input. This lack of info makes it very difficult to properly manipulate our qubits if don’t know what combination we have.

Background of the Deutsch-Jozsa Algorithm

The Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm was the first example of a quantum algorithm that performs better than the best classical algorithm. It uses quantum properties such as quantum interference (as shown here in the double-slit experiment) that allow us to figure out the solution to our problem.

What Is The Problem?

We are given a reversible circuit implementing an unknown function f. We are given the promise that our function is either balanced or constant. A constant function returns all 0’s or all 1’s for any input, while a balanced function returns 0’s for exactly half of all inputs and 1’s for the other half. Our task is to determine whether the given function is balanced or constant by making queries to the circuit for f.

We treat this reversible circuit as a ‘black box’ or ‘oracle’ (looks like a black hole in the middle of the circuit). This means that we can apply the circuit to obtain values of f(x) for given inputs x, but we cannot gain any information about the inner workings of the circuit to learn about the function f. In this situation, we have to make queries (or calls) to the function in order to figure out whether f is balanced or constant.

Classical Solution

In our unknown function f takes n-bit strings as an input. In computer programming, a string is a finite sequence of symbols. In our case, the Deutsch-Jozsa problem binary digits (0 or 1) as values and it returns either 0 or 1. An abstract variable terms a string of bits for the function f looks like this:({x₀, x₁, x ₂,…})→0 or 1, where xₙ is 0 or 1. In more concrete terms, a string of bits for function f may look like this: f(1,0,0,…)→1.

Just to clarify the → is referring to the return value of the string.

Since we work with 2 values 0 and 1 we use the base 2 when we calculate our possibilities. In this situation, in order for us to find the solution we first need to identify how many possibilities that we have. 2ⁿ is how we find the number of combinations based on our _n-_bit input. For example, let’s say that n=2

2²=4 different combinations of 2-bit strings

Combination 1: 00

Combination 2: 01

Combination 3: 10

Combination 4: 11

Based on any set of combinations, in the best-case scenario, we only need to make two queries. If we get both f(0,0,0,…)→0 and f(1,0,0,…)→1, then we know the function is balanced as we have obtained the two different outputs.

In the worst-case scenario, since 2ⁿ is the total number of possibilities, in order to prove we are 100% certain of whether the function is balanced or constant we need to check half of the possibilities + 1.

Let’s use the example of the 2³, which is a 3-bit string with 8 different possible combinations. If we check 4 out of 8 combinations and we get a return value of 0 every time, even though it is probabilistically unlikely the 5ᵗʰ input returns a 1. If it returns a 1 then we no longer have a constant function, we now have a balanced one. The implication of this is we need to query more than half of our combinations to be 100. To verify a function for any number n is balanced, we query f for

To give a little bit of a background on why this model makes sense. Since 2ⁿ is the total number of possibilities. Our base (2) is what we multiply by every time. If we do 2ⁿ-¹ then we divide our total number by 2 granting us half of the possibilities. The +1 is there to get us passed the half way point to be certain.

Quantum Solution

With quantum computing, on the other hand, we can limit that query to just 1 and we can be 100% certain of whether function f is constant or balanced. To explain this model we need to examine the circuit and work through the math.

To understand this quantum circuit we first need to be familiar with the Hadamard gate. Below is the value of a Hadamard gate being applied to our two states.

Hadamard being applied to ∣0⟩ and ∣1⟩

Now that we have some fundamentals we can get into into the circuit of the algorithm.

The circuit for the Deutsch–Jozsa algorithm

Note that the last input bit has been initialized to the state to the Hadamard ∣1⟩. This gate is not shown for arbitrary reasons, the algorithm will not be any different if you had ∣1⟩ and had Hadamard gates to parallel the ones in the for the circuit lines of ∣0⟩.

At the bottom of the circuit, you will see|ψ₀⟩ to |ψ3⟩. These are different points within the circuit, these are a convenient way to analyze the behavior of this quantum algorithm. This helps us work through the state at each stage of the circuit.

First Step in the Circuit

In our first state, we have ∣0⟩⊗n, this means that we using the tensor product of the ∣0⟩ and our n value. In this situation, our tensor products refer to the number of ∣0⟩’s that are involved in our circuit. For example if n=3 then we have 3 one-qubit ∣0⟩ states. The state on the right side of ∣0⟩⊗n is the∣1⟩ state after a Hadamard gate is applied to it.

In this position, we are evaluating the in between the step of |ψ₀⟩ and |ψ₁⟩ where we apply the Hadamard gates. Note, this step does not include∣1⟩ and its transformation with the Hadamard gate as it has already been transformed.

Here we are applying our tensor products to get how many 1-bit input blocks of the Hadamard and ∣0⟩ we need for our circuit. Going back to the example of n=3. We will have 3 Hadamard blocks and 3 ∣0⟩ inputs.

Since the Hadamard gate is unitary (it preserves the lengths of the inputs), it is expected to follow the normalization. To calculate the probability of whether we will get 0 or 1 as a value, we need to square our amplitudes and add them. For a single Hadamard ∣0⟩, we would get ∣0⟩ + ∣1⟩ ÷ √2. If you factor it out you get (1/√2) (∣0⟩ + ∣1⟩). This is the logic behind the line above. The exponent comes from us having more than 1 Hadamard of∣0⟩. With our coefficient of 1/√2, we achieve an equally weighted superposition where there is an equal chance of getting the values ∣1⟩ and ∣0⟩.

In this situation, our starting point (left of the equal sign) is the same as the line before. Our amplitude (or coefficient) is the same. The only difference is that we use Sigma notation which simply says the same thing as the previous line, except it, is a much efficient way of writing it.

It says that x (an n-bit string) is in the elements (consisting) of the values 0 and 1 with the n (outside the curly brackets) dictating how many values are in our string.

To remind you of where we are we just went through the line of H-blocks (Hadamard Gates) on the left side and we have reached|ψ₁⟩. The only difference between this line and the last one is the multiplication of Hadamard ∣1⟩ with the rest of our circuit.

When approaching the unitary function f (U_f_) which is also known as a controlled unitary function. In controlled functions, you have the control qubit (the dot) and the target qubit (⊕).

An example of such a gate is the controlled-NOT (or CNOT) gate. In the quantum circuit language, we have two wires, representing two qubits, and the following notation to represent the CNOT gate:

Controlled-NOT Gate

Usually, the control qubits control the target qubits by changing their states. If the control qubit is set to ∣1⟩, as in the states ∣10⟩ and ∣11⟩, it flips the target qubit then it flips (i.e., NOTs) the target qubit. And otherwise, it does nothing. Writing out the action on all four computational basis states we have:

∣00⟩→∣00⟩

∣01⟩→∣01⟩

∣10⟩→∣11⟩

∣11⟩→∣10⟩

In this algorithm, the Hadamard states change the roles of the qubits. The control and target qubits are effectively switched where the target qubit affects the control qubit.

How controlled Hadamard changes control gates

This change causes our coefficient to become a -1. Looking below the difference between the Hadamard of ∣0⟩ and ∣1⟩, one has a positive basis state, while the other is in a negative basis state.

Using the reversed version of the controlled gate due to our Hadamard states. The control qubit (now the Hadamard of ∣1⟩) affects our target qubits (all of the Hadamards of ∣0⟩). This causes our Hadamard of ∣0⟩ to have a value of Hadamard of ∣1⟩. This creates a coefficient of -1 that is applied to all of our ∣0⟩ states.

In the lines below we apply the second Hadamard gate as our last operator. This step is done similar to the first Hadamard gate where the ∣1⟩ is excluded from the calculation.

Like we did with the last Hadamard gate we are finding the tensor product of the 1-qubit Hadamard gate and the n-qubit inputs. Again with n=3, we will have 3 Hadamard blocks in our circuit.

The bolded x on the other hand is the n-qubit basis state from the last operations. This is represented by x= ∣x₁⟩∣x₂⟩…∣xₙ⟩.

With our eigenvalue (coefficient) of -1, we get (-1) in each Hadamard of ∣0⟩. The ∣x₁⟩∣x₂⟩…∣xₙ⟩ are there to represent the values of our qubits after they have gone through 2 operators in the circuit. Now to generalize this idea we use, z as a variable to replace our Hadamard values.

The equation above can be simplified to

In this simplification, we have the inner product (multiplication) of x and z.

Finally, when we do our third and last “check”, we take the values that we got after applying the first Hadamard gate, with the eigenvalue (coefficient) of (−1) from the unknown controlled unitary function), and we take the values from the second Hadamard gate and we also include our Hadamard of ∣1⟩.

Rearranged version

At the end of the algorithm, a measurement of the first register (quantum system) is made on a computational basis. To see what happens, consider the total amplitude (coefficient) of |z⟩=|0⟩⊗n in the first register of state |ψ3⟩. This amplitude is:

Consider this amplitude in the two cases: f constant and f balanced. If f is constant, the amplitude of |0⟩⊗n is either +1 or −1 (depending on what value f(x) takes). So if f is constant, a measurement of the first register is certain to return all 0s (by ‘all 0s’ we mean the binary string 00 ··· 0).

Example of a Constant Measurement

I know that it is not 100% 0’s, but the problem in this situation is the ability to control the state of qubits at all times.

On the other hand, if f is balanced, then it is easy to see that the positive and negative contributions of the amplitudes cancel(through quantum interference), and the overall amplitude of |0⟩⊗n is 0. So if f is balanced, a measurement of the first register is certain not to return all 0s.

Even though have some fairly even values, which is what is expected if we get balanced as our result. There is still an error (so still not perfect).

As for the code, to determine whether f is constant or balanced, the first register is measured. If the result of the measurement is all 0s, then the algorithm outputs ‘constant’, and otherwise it outputs ‘balanced’.

The Flow State

Mon, 21 Dec 2020 00:00:00 GMT

Imagine being able to lift a car without the help of machines, steroids, or drugs. Imagine that with just your own strength you can lift something that is 20 times your body weight.

As crazy as this fantasy seems to be, it has been done. Keep in mind it wasn’t done by some super strong athlete, this can be done by normal, average people.

Take Kenny Franklin and Charlotte Heffelmire as an example. They both somehow managed to lift cars to save the lives of other people.

Wait…how is this even possible? It doesn’t make sense. Logically speaking, a light car is around 3,000 pounds. The world record for deadlifting is just over 1,100 pounds.

That is almost 3 times heavier than what is possible by the strongest human being. Now, think how everyone in society is nowhere near that level of strength, so again how did they do it? The state of flow is how they got there.

What is flow?

“I developed a theory of optimal experience based on the concept of flow — the state in which people are so involved in an activity that nothing else seems to matter”

– Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi

If you don’t already know Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, he is a Hungarian-American psychologist recognized for his findings of the concept of flow.

Think back to the example of the two people above, you realize they were so immersed in the danger and the fear of the life or death situation that their survival instincts took over.

They were so present in the moment that they were no longer thinking through their prefrontal cortex (involved in planned rational thoughts) and they started thinking with their amygdala (emotional control center). This allowed them to perform far better than any human being.

This flow state is also known as “being in the zone”. In this state of mind, every action, every movement, and every thought all flow one after another in perfect harmony.

You become so immersed that hours can go by in a flash. The tunnel vision makes you feel like you are in another world. The best part is that this can be applied to absolutely everything. Reading, writing, painting, your history presentation, and doing homework.

Characteristics of Flow

End Result of a Flow State

There are 3 main areas that accompany the experience of flow. These factors are primarily based on feeling rather than something quantitative. This makes self-awareness the key in recognizing when you are in a flow state.

1. The activity is intrinsically rewarding

There is no expectation for a pat on the back or external validation from others. You are doing the activity for yourself, for your own self-fulfillment.

2. Complete focus on the activity itself

In this time, your external stressors disappear where you lose the feeling of everything around you. Your ability to focus is so strong that you become tunnel-visioned. You are so focused on the present moment that nothing else matters.

3. The task is slightly outside your current skill set

To be able to do something for long periods of time, you need a challenge. Without a challenge you can get board easily, while if it is too hard you will give up right away. The optimal way is you challenge yourself to something slightly higher than your current skill set, this encourages to increase your skill set to rise to the challenge, which encourages flow.

How to Achieve Flow

Hopefully, you are intrigued by the idea of flow and how to achieve it. Here are some of the ways that helped me get into state flow time and time again:

1. Cutting out distractions

Constantly checking your phone to reply a DM is extremely destructive action that if done enough time can completely ruin your day.

When you return to working you lose 23 minutes every time to get back to the same level of productivity that you had before the notification.

Flow is about a hyper-focus on one thing rather than multiple. Every disruption makes it less and less likely for you to be in a state of flow.

Of course, somethings are urgent and are unavoidable distractions. I can tell you for sure, most of your distractions can either be minimized or eliminated.

2. Listening to the same song on repeat

Preferably, this should be done with headphones to isolate your hearing.

Why? Listening to only one song (if it has lyrics) makes the words fade out and you start going with the vibe and feel the energy as you are working.

When you think of flow it isn’t a tangible thing, it is more a vibe or a state of mind. Having strong energy from your music can be an extremely powerful way to get yourself started.

What type of music should you have? According to Thomson’s research, “Only soft fast music had a positive influence [on learning], whilst loud fast, as well as soft slow or loud slow music, hindered learning.”

According to Peckham’s research, “Instrumental music disturbs learners less than music with lyrics.”

Takeaway: Listen to soft and fast instrumental music (to get the most benefit). You should also try different types of music to see if something works better for you than the research recommended ideas.

Pro Tip: Listen to songs on 1.5x or 2x speed to get the fast feel to get yourself going.

3. No Multitasking

This is exactly what not to do

Have you ever had those days where you worked on so many different things and somehow still got nothing done?

Before I even dive in, let’s first explore multitasking. You might be thinking “Isn’t it when you are working on multiple different tasks at once?”

You can’t do two things at once. In reality, you are alternating between your tasks at hand. Every time you switch a task, your working memory needs to “load” what you are doing again. This forces your brain to spend valuable mental resources trying to go back to where you left off before.

As a result, you experience something called the Cognitive Switching Penalty. Simply put, the more you switch, the more the cost(on your mental resources). Psychology Today, claims it that you can lose up to 40% of your productivity if you are constantly multi-tasking.

Going back to flow, we need the most amount of mental resources to be able to achieve our high concentration, laser-like focus.

Flow Applications to Everyday Life

I know many of you are thinking “This sounds good and all, but my school or my work is so boring I can’t achieve flow.”

We are going to fix that right here, right now!

Studying and Homework

“Can’t wait to do my homework!” Said No One Ever.

Despite how many of us dread the time we have to study for that test, that exam, or have to sit down and grind out that project. This is a tremendous amount of opportunities for flow, we just don’t take advantage of it.

Firstly, we need to understand that for us to be motivated to work, we need a motive. Csikszentmihalyi suggests that we involve ourselves in the process of gamification. This is where we change our perspectives on how we view things and start treating mundane tasks like a game.

For example, you can challenge yourself to see how many problems you can solve in a given amount of time. Or when working on a paper, see how many words you can write within a time limit. There will be times when you have to do boring work you don’t want to do.

Gamification is good to overcome all of these barriers of starting your tasks. This will also help you to start enjoying your processes of working, the more you en’joy what you are doing, the more likely you will be to do it well.

Work

According to a global poll conducted by Gallup, out of the world’s one billion full-time workers, 85% are unhappy in their jobs. Flow is the solution.

Csikszentmihalyi describes an “autotelic personality”, which is someone who can create flow experiences even in the bleakest and the most lifeless situations. He argues that anyone can develop this attitude, even if the work they do is “boring” on the surface.

In his research, Csikszentmihalyi and his team of researchers interviewed people from all over the world. The people were asked about the times in their lives that they felt most content, most happy, most fulfilled (all outcomes of flow).

For people who are factory workers, farmers, and living in intense poverty, even they reported flow experiences. As it turns out, your approach is much more impactful than the experience itself.

For example, when I was working as a “doorman” in a grocery store during COVID. I was legit getting paid to tell people “Hi” and “Bye.” Even though it was nice getting paid for doing no work, it was also a very boring experience.

I kept myself engaged in it by turning it into a flow activity. Whenever a customer would come in to the store, I would make a random story that involved them and how they got here.

To be honest, at least half my stories made no sense, but it was really fun letting my imagination run wild. That was an activity worth doing for its own sake, which is a good way to know if your gamification is helpful to you.

Free Time

Remember all those times you said you would take a 20-minute break on Netflix and you ended up binging an entire season.

The reason this happens is very similar to how people interact with drugs. The first time you always achieve you maximum pleasure per dosage. Every other time after that, the same dose gets less and less gratifying making you need more and more to satisfy yourself.

“Ironically, jobs are actually easier to enjoy than free time, because like flow activities they have built-in goals, feedback, rules, and challenges, all of which encourage one to become involved in one’s work, to concentrate and lose oneself in it. Free time, on the other hand, is unstructured, and requires much greater effort to be shaped into something that can be enjoyed”

— Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi

To make sure this doesn’t get put out of context, I believe there needs to be a clear distinction with how to engage with your work.

There are times where you are extremely immersed in an activity or the span of days, weeks, even months. As compelling as it might be to continue working on it for hours on end every single you need a break.

You might be thinking “Don’t breaks make you less productive? NO NO NO

Studies have found that breaks can reduce or prevent stress, help to maintain performance throughout the day and reduce the need for a long recovery at the end of the day.

In 2016, A study by Korpela, Kinnunen, Geurts, de Bloom and Sianoja found that taking lunchtime breaks and detaching from work, increases levels of energy at work and decreases exhaustion.

A relaxing break can help to facilitate recovery, by returning your mental and psychical functional systems to their baseline. Additionally, a relaxing break can help to reset your mood, thereby promoting positive wellbeing and reducing stress.

Working all the time even if you are constantly in flow makes a very unhealthy and unsustainable way of life.

You need free time (or self-time) to make sure you are doing well emotionally and constantly in a good mental state.

As Jim Kwik mentions in his learning podcast, “Learning is state-dependent.” If you are feeling bored you are less likely to digest the content well. Gamifying everything could be a good way to have a good state of mind.

Remember “Learning is state-dependent.” If you feel bad you will perform badly (or relatively bad to your good state).

This doesn’t mean that you always need to use your free time constructively. You can still watch Netflix or scroll through TikTok, but in moderation where you enjoy a short break rather than hours going by without much use.

It is really important to recognize when you need a break vs you being bored, for some people you still scroll out of habit rather than you enjoying the content.

Benefits of flow

Dopamine: popularized as the ‘feel-good’ chemical. It is also involved in memory, and attention.
Anandamide: It is involved in pain modulation, mood regulation, and has anti-anxiety and anti-depressant properties. Anandamide has also been associated with neurogenesis (birth of new cells).
Norepinephrine: often described as a stress hormone and is an active source in our fight/flight responses. Its activation allows us to be hyper-focused with laser eye concentration.
Serotonin: a mood stabilizer that helps to regulate emotions and control sleep and waking patterns. This can stop us from having really high highs and really low lows. This makes us be more in control of ourselves rather than being slaves to our emotions.
Endorphins: known for creating the euphoria effect which is a state of intense happiness and self-confidence. They are also natural pain blockers, which are good through times of suffering.

Why Does Flow Matter?

“Flow is important both because it makes the present instant more enjoyable, and because it builds the self-confidence that allows us to develop skills and make significant contributions to humankind”

— Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi

I know I might have presented flow as a productivity hack, but it is so much more than that. As Mihaly explains, being present is the key to developing ourselves and humankind.

Flow matters because of the feeling of control it gives you. You feel like everything is in your hands and you can do something about it.

Instead of being reactive to your environment and start getting overwhelmed because you feel everything is being thrown at you. You start taking a more active role, where you own your life, not someone else, not something else.

Creating flow requires deliberate intention and effort. When you learn how to induce flow, you also learn how to control that voice inside your head.

Once you can control that voice you can cleanse your thoughts and be aware of what you are thinking, this way you can start shutting off the negative parts within those thoughts that don’t bring you any value like hatred or jealousy.

At this point, you become at peace with the world, where things don’t bother you as much. You worry less, you hate less, and you lie to yourself less.

Action Items:

Remove Distractions From Your Environment
Gamify your Activities
Work for 52 minutes then take a 17 minute break

Ahmed Hassan | Oct 2020

Sun, 01 Nov 2020 00:00:00 GMT

What I am working On?

Quantum Computing/Mechanics

It is just so fascinating to me how many complex the world actually is and how there are still so many things about the world we do not understand. To be honest, I think my knowledge is far is only scratching the surface. You can find a intro article on Quantum Computing/ Quantum Mechanics here.

Thinking About Thinking

As awkward as may sound, it is actually so fundamental in how you process information that comes your way. The realization came from a poker player of all people. To quickly highlight this podcast, Annie Duke went into the double edge sword of pain for learning, importance of being surrounded by a group where everyone spots each other’s bias, and completely changing your outlook on your thoughts and ideas to make you a better decision maker and more rational thinker. If you are interested in here is an article on some lessons to be learned and implemented in your everyday life.

Failures:

This is the month included 2 big failures that really made me put things into perspective.

1. Presentations

I always used to think I was such a good presenter, I honestly did not know where that came from. In this situation, I was under an extreme time pressure only being given 45 minutes to explore an emerging technology and present as if I was an expert. If you watch any part of that presentation, it safe to say I was nothing close to an expert.

Reflections:

I am mediocre presenter
Let go of your EGO

Lessons Learned:

Be Intentional with body posture (I literally looked like a flappy bird)
High School Slides, the one with the bullet points and with the low res pictures. Is not GOOD. Good means best in the world. I don’t think I have enough ego to assert that, but I am slowly building myself to that.

2. AI Hackathon

I always used to think I am a great team manager (you should be seeing a pattern of I used to I see myself). As painful as this is to say, I did a very TERRIBLE job as a project manager. Here is my retrospection for this 2 week event.

Mistakes:

Did not ask about commitment

Problem: It makes me badly judge how work should be distributed. I assumed everyone was 100% committed to this project. Some tasks were not thoroughly done because people were had other priorities

Importance: Once I know how much time people can dedicate, then I can judge how much work makes sense for them to do.
Did not ask how other want to be managed

Problem: I did not ask things like do you want to be micromanaged or macromanged

Importance: This lead to directing (and not directing) at the wrong times, creating 1-on-1 conflict between me and the other members
Not Constantly Checking In with people 1-on-1

Problem: Sometimes teammates misunderstood their tasks and gave some that I did not want

Importance: Checking in with people during the beginning of their research/work clears up any misunderstandings, ensuring less time is wasted on things that were not needed in the first place
Cutting General Communication

Problem: I reached a point where I wasn’t happy with the progress of group (due to bad management on my part) and started only communicating with 1 out of the 5 people in my group.

Importance: I ran away when it mattered most. I was scared as I could not face the fact that I was doing a bad job.
Not going through the ways we can fail

Problem: Not going through the exercise that could have predicted all of our downfalls

Importance: Once you recognize how things can go wrong, it makes it so much easier to see the red flags from a mile away

Why You Should Think Like A Poker Player

Sat, 31 Oct 2020 00:00:00 GMT

How does thinking like a poker player makes you more rational? If anything isn’t betting your money on poker a more irrational thing to do?

To be honest, this is exactly what I was thinking before listening to Annie Duke, a professional poker player who has made over $4 million playing poker.

In reality, if you won that much money you must be doing something right. In this podcast, she talks about responding to failure, becoming more open-minded, and dealing with high-pressure, high-stakes situations with uncertainty, and so much more.

In poker, there are so many factors involved when making decisions. What does your hand look like? What hand do other people have? What is the pot size? How many people are at the table? just to name a few. Considering how many possibilities there are, it can very difficult and overwhelming to make good decisions with so many unknowns.

One of the most fundamental things in making decisions when in uncertain situations is your mental model. Mental models attempt to help us predict what is right in the world and can be very effective for helping us filter the noise and find what is important.

Annie Duke’s main mental model is probabilistic thinking and is one of the reasons for her success in such an uncertain game like poker.

What is Probabilistic Thinking?

Simply put, assign probabilities to each outcome you think could happen. For example, as I am writing this article, it is clear that I can not make everyone love my article, but in my head, I believe that there is a 60% chance of you liking this article, for the following reasons:

I reason through the thinking behind the idea, creating very limited gaps of knowledge if any
It is something you likely have not done before or to this degree that I am pushing
I acknowledge some of the things you might be thinking as you read through the content, making it as if we were talking together as I explain these ideas
This is article is a little long, maybe it is too much for you
I could easily have a bias in here as I am presenting this idea without being aware and that goes against what you believe

In reality, my probability is way off as I have only recently started implementing this mental model. Taking the factors I mentioned above in mind, it makes my content a little better than it would’ve been if I didn’t consider them.

5 Stages Probabilistic Thinking

Finding the relevant factors to your situation
Thinking of different decisions based on the factors and what outcomes they create
Giving a probability to each one (ex. 63% X happens when I do Y)
Acting on your decision
Analyze Decision (w/other people)

There are situations where you have an infinite number of factors and decisions. The point is to find the ones that have the largest impact or the ones with the most significance.

In the example above, you are considering many aspects to make sure you are not missing out on anything. In this process you start selecting factors based on what you feel is most significant.

When you first start, your probabilities are going to be off like mine, through feedback and results you will start to refine your decision-making process to make it more objective than it currently is. If you are interested in learning more about probabilistic thinking check this out.

Why Analyze With Others?

The reason your analysis needs to involve people is that we are all inherently bias towards ourselves. This is made evident through Dan Kahan’s findings. Our problems come from something called identity protective cognition.

To explain this concept, first think of your own identity, the thing that defines who you are. I am ___. It could be funny, a nice person, smart, absolutely anything that resonates with you.

Now imagine you got some feedback from people or results that goes against that. People did not laugh at your jokes when you thought you were funny. People said you were mean when you thought you were nice.

In this situation, you thought you were really smart, but you got a C. This feedback makes us feel bad because it doesn’t align with your perception of yourselves. You instantly become very defensive and deny the validity of the feedback.

Here you felt that our identity gets attacked. The feedback of failing makes you believe that you are incompetent in a particular skill or aspect of your life. Our natural inclination to make ourselves feel good makes us act to protect this identity.

This is what leaves us open to blaming things that are outside our control to let ourselves off the hook. This leads you to say things like “This teacher doesn’t like me” or “I didn’t get enough time to study” or “We never learned these things.” Sound familiar?

This is our rationalization as to why we did badly on this test even though we are “smart.” The problem here is that we let ourselves off the hook and don’t hold ourselves accountable because it makes us feel bad.

Reaction to Failure

Throughout our lives we all deal with failures. On most occasions it can be very difficult, especially with our identity protective cognition being in the way. Improving our process for dealing with it is essential if we want to be the successful people we aspire to be.

Some of us view failure as something good, while others see it as something bad. What is interesting about failure is it this double-edged sword that has the power to speed up or hinder our learning.

On one hand, pain can be really helpful in learning as it is a consequence of your poor decisions and we need to avoid it because we are naturally hedonistic. This forces us to improve our process so we do not experience as much pain the next time around.

On the other hand, this pain is very defeating for your identity. Your identity protective cognition makes you deflect it, to make you feel better about yourself to make sure you preserve your positive self-image.

When Annie was first starting out in poker, she lost a hand told her bad beat story (poker complaining story) to Eric Seidel, a fellow poker pro who has won more than $34.6 million. When most people would validate her story, Eric did the complete opposite, this was his response:

“Why are you telling me this story, do you really think I want to hear this? Okay, I have lost a lot of hands too. I heard so many bad beat stories I have no interest in yours whatsoever. If you really lost because of bad luck, what is the point of the story, there is nothing you can learn from it…if you just come and tell me about bad luck, you are like literally wasting my time and it is annoying”

As harsh as the comment may be, Eric clearly outlines exactly what is wrong with this type of thinking: you don’t learn anything from it. You can complain about your misfortune all you want, but at the end of the day, it doesn’t change what happened.

Dealing with Failure

Whenever you lose/fail at something you have 2 choices:

Option 1: Take the short term-pain for a greater future positive self-narrative

Option 2: Take the discount now and be the same every other time after that

Before we examine the options above, we need to recognize what is the result of the feedback you are getting: pain. It hurts when you are wrong because it tells you that you have a fault.

If you were to pick an option of the two, you would probably pick option 1. It makes sense, thinking long term. The problem here is you are answering in theory, but practically speaking most would buckle once they get hit with a really difficult challenge.

The reason it turns out this way in practice is that our brains are hardwired to crave instant results. Sometimes, the driving force of being better in the future is not strong enough to withstand our monkey mind. So basing your decisions on willpower only is very ineffective.

I’m not sure about you but I wouldn’t want to be the picture on the left. There is just that feeling of unease in that situation that doesn’t sit well with. I might feel really bad now, which might also affect me badly later.

How do we make our pain more manageable in the short term without badly affecting the long term?

The Solution

Annie proposes a really good way for dealing with this problem: finding a good group. In this solution, you have long term improvement as well as short term gratification.

How Does a Group Help?

The reason all of us need a group is that we are inherently biased towards ourselves and our identities. Anything that goes against it is seen as a threat as it can’t hurt our identity, hence how we view ourselves. This flaw makes us unable to objectively and accurately assess ourselves.

I want you to think of how easy it is to point out other people’s mistakes. You probably pinpointed a couple of my mistakes throughout this writing that my natural bias towards myself does not allow me to see.

That is exactly why having other people is so important. It is so much easier for you to spot other people’s mistakes rather than ones of your own.

This makes it so other people call you out when you are blind to your own reality and vice-versa, which helps you create a more objective lens of the world.

How Can you Create a “Good” Group?

When finding your squad, you need to create a “constitution” to ensure everyone who abides by these rules grows together. Feel free to add some of your own along the way.

Agreeing to not tolerate the bad beat stories (whining stories)
Agree that everyone’s ideas and thoughts are still under construction and the goal is to help others create a more accurate mental model of the world
You are not allowed to withhold valuable that can help a person grow

The point of this dynamic is not to reach a consensus where all of you think the exact same thing. Everyone can have their own strategy for how to process information, but it is about phasing out each other’s biases and mistakes to make everyone have a more objective view of the world.

Validation from the Group

As you go through your transformation it is going to be a difficult and painful process. This isn’t about others praising you, this is about seeking validation from people that matter to you (the people in your group).

The approval only happens when you start changing the way you think and how you express your process of making a decision.

When you slowly start changing your wording from “I am so unlucky” to “I am at fault” Changing your perspective from one where you lack control over your situation to one where you do.

As you go through this transition, your group supports the good thinking, while opposing the bad thinking. This feedback validation from the group makes feel good without undermining our progress.

With the longing for approval, it forces us to change how we think. This includes considering multiple perspectives and attempting to recognize our biases. The group helps us out by pointing our mistakes and we point out theirs.

Annie discusses how in your groups, there will always be a time where you disagree. Normally, when our positive narrative gets disagreed with, we tend to feel that we getting personally attacked. This feeling of threat makes us act as if we are actually under threat so we try to escape it or aggressively fight back (with words). This causes us to be dismissive, discredit, or think the other person is not worth listening to.

For the disagreement to work in a constructive way you need to be able to disagree without being disagreeable and not be defensive about it. If you think back to the “constitution,”this is only possible when you agree that your ideas are still in progress.

This completely reframes disagreement, it turns into something helpful and something everyone can learn from. Now, this becomes about how good can you acknowledge the other side or acknowledge uncertainty rather than how hard can you push your own personal agenda.

Over time, as your thinking changes you get the same effect when you are away from the group. Think of 100 learning opportunities. Without your squad, you let’s say you only caught 5 mistakes. With the squad, you could have caught 10 mistakes.

Even though you are away from the group, you process your information as if you were with them. You think like this because you know that your group will hold accountable for your decision later.

You might ask yourself “What interesting thing am I going to bring to the group next time I talk to them?” or “What bias did I recognize in this situation?” or “How was my decision-making process here?

You also start catching your mistakes quickly. Instead of realizing your mistake a few hours later, you catch it a few minutes later when you could still do something about it.

A Group of Only You

Annie brings forward a really interesting idea of making a group consisting of only you, one with multiple versions of you to be specific.

If you think about it, there are so many different layers to you, there is you in the past, present ,and the future. There is a school you. Friendly you that meets people for the first time. You with your close friends. A family-friendly you and the list goes on and on.

Now think of all of the different perspectives and thought processes in all of those different situations stemming from just you. Taking a small fraction of that can make a really large group where every decision is challenged helping you recognize some gaps in knowledge or thinking that present you would have not been able to find.

Working As A Leader

Managing a team can be a very difficult and daunting task. You are in charge of everyone on the team and take full responsibility for the results of the team.

Most times, as the leader, your group will have you have multiple decisions under consideration and you need to predict the outcome to the best of your abilities and assign probabilities to it. The probabilities are meant to be how sure you are about your prediction.

You might be thinking “This is absolutely ridiculous, your predictions are always going to be wrong.” While that is true on most occasions.

Your desire to make this guess makes you very information hungry. You changed your mindset from “What is the right answer?” to “What am I not thinking of?”

This type of thinking makes you more open-minded, by making you predict the outcomes, you start to look for ways to make a more desirable outcome. This comes from creating more data points as well as talking to people of different perspectives. This causes you to constantly refine your view to make your decision as objective as you can get it to be.

Once you create what probabilities on what you think might happen if you went through with decision A or decision B, involve the group in your thought process. This part is where you can get the best learning outcomes as a team.

Let’s say you, as the leader, decide that option A has a 25% chance of success. Half the group agrees with you and the other half believes it has a 70% chance of success. You would discuss your points of view, but with a twist: you do red team, blue team.

To put it simply you make people argue for the side they do not believe it. If you were 25% sure then you would be switched to the side with 70% certainty and vice-versa.

Annie explains you need to have a 1-on-1 while everyone else judges who wins the debate, not who is correct but who argued for the opposite side the best.

The switching of sides forces you to put yourself in a completely different headspace. Your goal is to make the best argument for the opposite side. This gives a chance for everyone to think through a different perspective and forces everyone to consider more possibilities than those they would’ve come to on their own.

This is a great way to help outliers not have their idea dismissed because the majority thought differently. The thought of making people switch sides is incredible because it takes away the possibility of stubborn thinking.

When everyone hears the process of both sides it makes it so the group as a whole rethinks and refines their idea to limit bias as much as possible.

Key Takeaways:

Probabilistic thinking is about predicting outcomes before they happen
We have something called Identity Protective Cognition, which is our self-defense mechanism when something goes against our perception of ourselves. This causes you to be dismissive of feedback making you less likely to grow as you do not accept possible faults on your end
You need a group for analysis as you can not objectively assess yourself objectively
Your group must not tolerate complaining and focus on what everyone can learn

Actions Items:

Try predicting outcomes before they happen to develop intuition and refine the decision-making process
Always think “How can I make this outcome more likely?”
Find your squad to enable your growth

Quantum Computing For The Curious

Fri, 09 Oct 2020 00:00:00 GMT

Think of all the small around you. I’m not talking about your phone, your little notebook, or your drawer. Think so small that you can’t see it. Atoms, molecules, subatomic particles. What if I told all of the smallest things to rely on one set of laws that govern all of its actions. This is quantum physics, which is how our universe operates.

In quantum physics, electrons are usually regarded as a wave function. This wave is not a real physical thing, like water or soundwave. The wave function is an abstract mathematical wave.

This wave-function can predict what subatomic particles do well. For us to understand it and have real-world properties we need to turn it into a probability distribution. You can achieve this by squaring the amplitude (height) of the wave.

The probability distribution shows you where the electron is most likely to be, the higher the amplitude (height) of the wave the higher chance the electron will appear there.

You might be asking yourself what is the point of the wave function? Are we not looking at electrons?
When most of us hear electrons we think of a negatively charged atom. In quantum physics, electrons are initially viewed as waves. The Double Slit experiment presents this idea well.

Double Slit experiment:

Physicists used this experiment to show how a particle is a wave. Even though we can’t see the wave, this experiment results in the properties of waves.

In this experiment, you have 3 blocks with 2 slits (narrow holes) in between and along the back wall.

Imagine you are spraying a paintball gun, and you are trying to get it through the slit. With some questionable aim on your part, you hit the front 3 boards a couple of times, but you did manage to get some through the slit. Below are your results.

Double Slit Experiment W/Paintball Gun

From your center position, there are two possible areas where you can land the paint on the back wall due to how narrow the slit is.

Unlike the paintballs, the electrons will not behave in the same way. When the electrons fire, they behave differently. They create multiple patterns on the back wall, not just the 2 you saw from the paintball version.

Looking at the example below, it does not make sense how all these patterns emerge when you fire in a straight line, from a central position, through 2 narrow holes.

Double Slit Experiment W/Electron

In reality, when an electron fires, it is completely different than our paintball gun; it fires in waves.

When the waves spread, they do not create a linear pattern. They create something called interference pattern (more than 2 patterns), which is something that can only be found in waves.

Electron Wave Representation

When the waves reach the slits, it creates two other waves that go on to overlap one another, creating a property distribution, which if you recall is where the electrons are most likely to be.

Electron Wave Overlap

As confusing as this image might be, all you need to understand is that the overlap of the waves above creates more than just 2 patterns on the back wall.

At the points where the waves overlap, it is where the electron is most likely to be. At points where the waves do not overlap on the backboard, it where you are least likely to have your electrons.

The image above shows you all the points of overlapping. If you look closely the points on the wave that had the most overlap building up to the backboard are the ones with the highest probability.

Understanding this wave is a good representation of how quantum computers work.

What are bits ?

Bits are the most basic form of information and it can only be in one state at a time. It is like a light switch, it is either on or off.

This is also where the terms spin up and spin down come from. This refers to energy within an electron. With spin-up you have more energy making it associated with light and spin-down has less energy making it associated with darkness.

What are Qubits?

Qubits, on the other hand, can be in both states at once. This is called superposition.

Superposition allows for the qubit to run more possibilities as it has exponential more possibilities.

All possibilities of 4 qubits

You can think of it like it as spinning a coin. During the spinning, you do not know whether it is heads or tails as it can be both.

Going back to the waves, you think of it as 2 waves adding together. If you look to the left of the equal sign, you find that that the 2 high points on the waves are the ones that are in current superposition.

How are Qubits Connected?

Think of your friend giving you a call, regardless of the distance you receive it as both are connected to cell towers. When your friend calls your number, you get a receiving call screen, which looks kind of looks like this ⬇️.

In quantum computing, qubits are all interconnected. This connection is called entanglement. This connection between the two-electron waves makes it so when you measure one, you know instantly know the value of the other. Same with how you received a pop-up screen from your friend’s call.

The electrode — which is like you the cell towers that connect your phones — is what controls the connection of two qubits.

In the example above, there is a wave function that tells you everything about two particular electrons. Even if these two waves away from each other, they are still linked, similar to your connection with a friend in another country.

Once these waves are linked, they can be billions of miles away and still process information, this is called non-locality. Unfortunately, this can not be used for communication as its measurement will give you random results.

How Is Information Processed In Quantum Computers?

In quantum computers, there is a thing called transistors, which control the flow of electrons.

Sometimes the transistor has a barrier that blocks off information from going through. This barrier is similar to your mom letting you have too many cookies.

In quantum physics, the electron wave can pass through the barrier. When the electron wave meets the barrier it slowly decays the wave exponentially, making it more likely for the said wave to have an electron on the other side.

This is kind of like how you would sneak out of bed at night to get one last cookie. This process is called quantum tunneling.

Why is it so fast?

There is a process called superconducting because of the very low temperature (-273 degrees Celcius) it creates a system where the electric charges can pass through very easily. In essence, it is like removing traffic from a highway.

Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle:

The uncertainty principle says that we cannot measure the position and the momentum of a particle with absolute precision.

Momentum: measured by the amplitude or height of the wave

Position: measured by the wavelength of the wave

Where does the Uncertainty Come From?

The uncertainty comes from only knowing the position, momentum, or not knowing any at all.

In the example above, this is a sine wave where you only know the momentum. You know you wavelength because it is a single value, but your position has an equal chance of being anywhere on that wave.

With this example, you only know the position or the height of the wave. The problem here is you can not know the momentum, unless it is a perfect sine wave.

This picture above shows what we know and what we don’t know when from looking at a wave. These are not a limit of our measuring apparatus, this is a fundamental property of the universe. If you recall, our world is made of matter, which is made of atoms, which are made of sub-atomic atoms. These subatomic atoms are made of waves until they are measured.

Applications:

With quantum computing the possibilities are endless. From more accurate whether predictions to accelerating drug discovery, to financial markets. Its ability to simulate quantum mechanics and run through so many different possibilities at once can helps optimize and improve everyone life globally.

Key Takeaways:

The world is based on quantum mechanics
Objects are described with wave functions
Particle wave duality is about how a wave collapses and turns into a
A bit is an information that is processed as a 0 or 1
A qubit can be in both states of 1 and 0
Once connected qubits instantly react to one another
Measurement of both position and the momentum of a particle with absolute precision is not possible.

September 2020 Newsletter

Thu, 01 Oct 2020 00:00:00 GMT

Hey everyone! I want to thank you for taking the time to read my newsletter. I am Ahmed, the 16/yo who probably asks too many questions, which makes sense as I live on curiosity.

This is the start of my journey and I hope you enjoy the ride with me 😃.

What Happened This Month?

I went through an absolutely crazy transformation. This is the point in time where everything I did started making sense.

Calendar 🗓️

Procrastination, has been a problem for some time. Essentially, because I always had a free calendar, I just did whatever I felt like in the moment. Which looking back, was not a very effective way to get things done.

Having a calendar creates discipline in my life. It gave me a clear idea of what I need to be doing, it removed the clutter, the noise, and anything else that was distracting me from my goal: Becoming a Unicorn Person (someone who impacts billions). The calendar saves time from the small, seemingly insignificant things, which will later compound and make me the helpful, well rounded person I want to be.

Calendars are slowly removing my instant gratification monkey 🙈. Looking at this little guy, it reminds me of how he has always been hiding in the back of mind, controlling me on occasion after another. I am happy to say that this is the month, where I finally managed to overpower him.
Reading 📚

As a kid, I used to hated reading with a burning passion, all I wanted to do way play around. I remember my sister coming back from a Neuro lecture one time. She was glowing like I have never seen before. She was explaining all the cool things she learned; that’s the moment when a fire sparked within me. I developed a love for knowledge, I started spending time on my own, learning new things. Some books I read recently include “Stop Doing that $#!%” and “The Good Psychopaths Guide to Success.” The things I have learned from those two books are invaluable to me. I learned different ways of interpreting the world as well as the people around me. It really shifted my ideas and how I felt about these fundamental things.
Joining TKS

Coming into it I thought it was just another S.T.E.M. program, where you get to learn about really cool tech. In reality, it so much more. This program prepares you for the real world. A fundamental philosophy that we all need to understand that being good for your age does not mean anything. Good is being the best in the world.

After performing a task under a very bad time constraint. It would be an understatement to say that I performed badly. Looking at what I thought for the past while, I realize now I was experiencing the Dunning-Kruger effect. Where my perceptions of myself were outside of reality. I believed I had higher level competence than other people. That task humbled made me realize what who I really am: AVERAGE.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOLmD_WVY-E

Things I Have Worked on Over the Month
1. I also wrote a few articles highlighting some of my thoughts and new ideas I learned that I believe you can benefit from.
  1. How to Stop Procrastinating
    
    Goal: Understanding our bad habits and how we can fix it
  2. Are You Happy?
    
    Goal: Thoughts and experiences on happiness

Are You Happy?

Wed, 30 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT

Is she happy or not happy?

Your answer could be yes, no, or I don’t know. Happiness is what most people strive for. Having a purpose and fulfilling it gives someone’s life meaning. Hopefully, throughout this reading, you have some epiphanies of your own as you go through a roller coaster, that I call an experience.

What does happiness actually mean?

To each person, happiness might mean a different thing, but it is safe to say we all want many things. We want more time, more money, more likes.

Think of the one that speaks to you the most. For me, it used to be material things.

I always used to say “If I get this PlayStation, then I will be happy” or “ If I get these headphones, then I will be happy.” After a few days of having both things, the excitement disappeared. It felt so “normal” to have it that it no longer had a real value for me.

What is the problem with this?

One of Buddhism’s philosophies made this clear to me: separating yourself from your desires.

No matter what you buy or want, there will always be another thing. This does mean that you should not desire anything at all, but make sure that you understand having one thing is not going to make you happy.

It starts with the false notion of “If I get …, then I will be happy.”

Looking at the essence of this sentence. There is an implied meaning that suggests only after you achieve the “if” statement then your contentment will come along.

The way this sentence is said gives a feeling that something is missing in your life and it is the reason for your current unhappiness. This idea of always wanting more was a cause of a couple of lows throughout my life.

Look at this Human Barbie Doll who had six of her ribs removed just to look like a fictional character.

In the article, she says “People often come up to me and say, ‘Don’t take this the wrong way, but you look like a cartoon.’ But for me that’s a compliment, that’s what I want to achieve.”

In her situation, there are more surgeries to do and more things she can change about herself.

Not saying that what she did is right or wrong, but make sure you are doing things for the right reasons. Do not do something for social approval, or do it because you feel like you have to, do it because it is what YOU want.

Even though this sounds cliché, no amount of external value you get — whether that be money, praise, drugs — can save you from that terrible feeling of emptiness inside of you.

This is extremely evident when you look at depression levels today. According to CNN, teens spend about 7 hours per day on screens. To make matters even worse, this number does not include school work.

In relation to happiness, social media is a constant grab for attention and creates an environment where people are constantly comparing themselves to unrealistic standards. This makes us sad as we feel sometimes powerless at what we feel like we can not achieve.

Living in the Now

When you start appreciating your moments, it starts creating moments of mindfulness that make you aware of every single precious second.

It becomes so no two moments are alike. We become much more content because we escape the cycle of always wanting more.

Appreciating your limited time on this earth does not mean you can not look into the future. I used to emphasize on the future so much, I lost touch with the now. I wasn’t constantly checking with myself if I was happy with what I do.

When I was 12, I wanted to be a lawyer. It was what I believed was going to make me happy. Recently, upon reflection, I realized that I wanted to be a lawyer for the wrong reasons.

The motive initially came from Harvey Specter, a corporate lawyer in the show Suits — if you haven’t seen it, I definitely recommend it 😊 — the way he was portrayed in the show exaggerates how exciting it really is being a lawyer.

I said to myself “I want to be like Harvey.” What 12-year-old me never noticed, was all the problems that went on in Harvey’s life.

After listening to a podcast with Naval Ravikant, something he said something that really spoke to me.

“I could not just cherry-pick and chose little aspects of their life…You have to be that person. Do you want to be that person? With their reactions, their desires, their family, their happiness levels, their outlook on life, their self-image. If you are not willing to a 24/7 100% swap with that person, then there is no point in being jealous.”

This got me thinking, did I really want to be Exactly like Harvey? No!!!

To put it simply, he was narcissistic. This meant that in reality, he had a deep need for excessive attention and admiration.

The personality disorder also includes many relationship problems and sometimes even trust issues, as well as a lack of empathy for others.

As I am writing this, I am having flashbacks of all the scenes where I saw these exact problems that the Mayo Clinic describes.

Harvey would push people away to protect himself from what he felt like was a weakness. He risked the livelihood of the entire firm just because he can.

Despite what I just described, Harvey is a very compelling and entertaining character. There are just some things that I believe are fundamentally wrong that I do not want to have in myself.

I feel having trust issues and an inflated sense of self-worth is never a good thing, as I feel both of them can be very problematic.

I, then realized that I never really wanted to be like that. Harvey was a very empty person who was always trying to fill a void.

This whole story made me reevaluate what I want. I realized, there is only one of me. Why am I trying to be someone else? There is a perfectly good, unique individual: me.

This also goes to everyone reading this, no one can be a better “you” than “you.” There is no point in trying to be someone else, you are fighting a losing battle.

Emotional Fluctuations

The Arabic language has an interesting perspective on happiness itself.

If you look at the word “heart” in Arabic: “qalb”. The root of this word is something that is constantly changing.

In other words, the way you feel is always changing. Think of it as a random number generator, you wake up every day and get a random emotion. Now, it is on you to change to what you want throughout the day.

There will times you are happy, sad, or angry. One problem that many of us face is trying to be happy while feeling a polar opposite emotion.

Trying to distract ourselves with music, our favorite Netflix shows, or talking to our best friends is not always effective.

It might work if you feeling is mild, but when “you are in your feelings”, there is only one person that can fix that: YOU. The key — I believe — is acknowledging how you feel and being okay with it.

Success

Life is one crazy adventure. To be honest, that’s probably an understatement. None of us know what this road has for us and it is up to you to make sense of everything.

Everyone has their own idea of what success is, for some of us it could be going up that road to see what is on the other side. it could be about money, fulfillment, or even your spirituality (not necessarily in a religious sense).

Throughout my life, I have changed from one side of the spectrum to the other. This change is usually as a result of some deep conversations.

You probably had them too, these are the rare conversations that usually happens, once every few months. There comes a time in that conversation where something hits you different or an epiphany takes place.

The realization that is an outcome of that conversation, perplexes you. You have a moment of silence in honor of your new-found knowledge.

Those moments are fundamental anchors in my life and kept me in line when I was out of control. These anchors together attached make up my meaning; the reason I get out of bed in the morning.

My first exposure to my meaning came from a trip to Egypt, I saw kids who were around 10 or 11 years old (if not younger) and they would be out all day selling things, just to make ends meet.

I remember coming home and sobbing at that reality. I thought ‘It’s not fair, why is it not me? What did I do to deserve what I have?’

At that moment, I realized how fortunate I was, I never had to take on a responsibility that big. In reality, I got the lucky side of the coin.

I do not feel like I deserve what I have, as everything has been practically handed to me. I feel this thing where I feel I have to compensate for a fortune by helping others in misfortune.

Now, the one thing that keeps me going is making other people’s lives a little less difficult, trying to give back anyway I can.

Key Takeaways:

Don’t do things for the wrong reasons.
Find fulfillment in yourself
Live In the Now
No one can be a better “you” than “you”
Be okay with how you feel

How I Stopped Procrastinating

Mon, 14 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT

We start off with checking our phones for a notification, an hour passes by and we do not even realize it. Sound familiar?

It is a bad habit that seems difficult to shake off. The most important part of solving a problem is understanding it’s the source and in this situation, it is no different.

Problem:

Hedonism is why you procrastinate. Epicurus claimed everything we do is for the sake of pleasure and avoiding pain. For example, you remember that long project that was really boring that you did not want to do? How many times did you check social media or watch Netflix? It must have been so many times you lost count. In this example, you escape your pain and agony of the project by making yourself happy at the moment, sacrificing your future for the now. But why?

From an evolutionary standpoint, we were never sure if there ever was another tomorrow. When we did not have proper housing, spare food, and water, not to mention the animals that could have attacked you in the middle of the night.

Solution:

In order to solve this evolutionary habit, we need to identify what type of procrastinator you are.

Ruminator: The ones who overthink and can not make a decision

Motivation: Not making them a decision absolves them from the responsibility of the future outcome

Avoider: The ones who avoid the task at hand because of the fear of failure (or in some case fear of success)

Motivation: They are concerned with what others think of them and would have others think that they lack effort instead of ability

Perfectionist: The ones who aren’t happy with anything unless they do unless it’s 100% error-free

Motivation: The one who would rather do nothing than having to face the prospect of having to measure up to their own standards

Along with that, there are 3 distinct lies you tell yourself every time you don’t feel like doing it:

I work best under pressure (You don’t!)

This is not important (It usually is!)

I’ll feel like doing this tomorrow (You don’t!)

Visualize what you want to do

Distraction serves as a method of self-regulation, It’s a diversionary tactic to keep your fear of failure under control. To counteract this, start planning what you do and then close your eyes and visualize yourself doing it.

Research shows that when we imagine something the same areas light up in the sensorimotor region of your brain as if you were doing it for real.

Goal: to get yourself in the right headspace to work

Important tip: When visualizing think about what exactly makes you reluctant to do the task, when you find it then you can work through it. Often people are reluctant to do tasks without a proper reason, if this is the case, then what are you waiting for?

2. Ask Yourself Important Questions

The next time you find yourself putting off something important, for even a moment, ask yourself this:

Is how BAD I’m going to feel when I have to rush this task under pressure going to be anything like how great I’ll feel when I got it under control in a good time?

Depending on our circumstance, we are all afraid of failure, whether that be in school or some opportunity that comes our way. We all need to ask ourselves “what is the worst that can happen anyway?

We usually imagine things to be far worse than they really are. This is especially true for failure. Thinking out loud will help you realize whether or not your idea of the worst possible circumstance is sensible.

3. Contract our your time

We all hear that time is our most important asset as we can not get it back or have some sort of replacement. Set a predetermined period in advance, where you make a contract with yourself to work on whatever needs to be done, turning off anything that isn’t DIRECTLY related to what you are doing. Your phone should be out of your arm’s reach, you should find an environment away from anything the distracts you (i.e. do not go into the living room when everyone is home).

Ahmed's blog

🧪Switching From Glucose To Formic Acid 🧪

Welcome!😊

Recap

What I’m Sharing Today

Why I Switched From Glucose

How I Came Across Formic Acid

How Do You Make Formate?

What Is The Revenue From Formate?

What’s The Catch?

Next Steps

Different Pathways To Make Glucose

Recap

What I’m Sharing Today

How Can You Make Glucose?

Pathway 1

Problem With Pathway 1

Pathway 2

Lessons Learned

Next Steps

🌎 Best Way To Scale CO₂ Capture 🌎

Welcome to My Essays

What I’m Sharing Today

What Is The Best Way To Make Money From Carbon Capture?

What will you do with the CO₂ once you capture it?

Assessing CO₂-to-Product Approaches

Product #1: CO₂ + H₂ to Make Natural Gas (CH₄)

Product #2: CO₂ to Biomass

Product #3: CO₂ to Jet Fuel

Product #4: CO₂ to C₂H₄ (Ethylene)

Product #5: CO₂ to Glucose

Product #6: CO₂ to Urea

Product #7: CO₂ to Concrete

Conclusion

Next Steps

A Few Final Words

💸 Why Carbon Pricing Fails 💸

Welcome to My Essays

What I’m Sharing Today

How Should You Think About The Carbon Capture Industry?

What will you do with the CO₂ once you capture it?

Option 1: Store CO₂ Underground

The Lesson

What About Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland?

A Few Final Words

The Case For Carbon Capture

Welcome to My Essays

What I’m Sharing Today

How Should We Think About Solving Climate Change?

If we captured all yearly emissions, would that be enough to stop climate change?

Future Essays

A Few Final Words

🚀 How Should I Scale This Tech? 🚀

Welcome to My Essays

What I’m Sharing Today

What’s in This Essay?

Preface

The Project Finance Problem

Option 1: License the technology to large companies

Option 2: Raise $600M–$1B from venture capital

Option 3: Get project financing from banks

Conclusion

How Do You Solve the Project Finance Problem?

How to Achieve a Short Payback Period

How to Reduce the Cost of a Factory

How to Increase Profit Per Year

My Ideal Approach

A Few Final Words

🚀 Will This Tech Scale? 🚀

Welcome to My Essays

What I’m Sharing Today

What’s in This Essay?

Question 1: Is there enough space in the world to scale this technology?

Question 2: Is there enough input material to scale this technology?

Question 3: Does our cost goal make us profitable for this application?

Bonus Things to Consider

Bonus Thing 1: Don’t assume something is expensive without running a cost analysis first

Bonus Thing 2: Focus on overall efficiency instead of side metrics

A Few Final Words

💸 Will this tech be cheap? 💸